Since the interest rate hike in July last year, the Federal Reserve has kept policy interest rates from a 20 -year high of 5.25%to 5.50%.At the monetary policy meeting on March 20, based on 25 basis points for each rate of interest rates, 19 Federal Reserve officials who provided interest rate predictions were expected to fall to less than 5%this year. It is expected that there are two interest rate cuts this year.Five people, nine people who cut interest rates three times, and one of the four interest rate cuts.
However, in less than two months, the situation has changed a lot.In terms of interest rate cuts, Fed officials have begun to become more cautious and overwhelmed.The Federal Reserve's three leaders and the president of New York Federal Reserve, Williams, said in his speech that the Fed has not really discussed interest rate cuts. Restoration is not the topic of the Fed's current discussion.Even the pigeon -style Federal Reserve Bank President Bostek stood up and said that it is expected to cut interest rates twice next year.The implication is not possible this year.
The possibility of raising interest rates this year is not much high, and Michelle Bowman, director of the US Federal Reserve Commission, is very clear.She said on May 10 that the US inflation data was disappointed in the past few months, and it took a long time to be sure that the inflation rate would return to the target track set by the Federal Reserve; achieving the goal of inflation is a prerequisite for the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.She believes that the federal fund interest rate will maintain the current level for a longer period of time. At present, the Fed will not cut interest rates during this year.
The fired and vigorous Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cuts have been stir -fired. Suddenly, it is about to danger, and it really makes the outside world feel helpless, especially investors.As everyone knows, since this year, the market has been impacted and influenced by the news of interest rate cuts many times. Investors are also waiting for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The relevant state central banks are also using policy adjustments to respond to the Fed's interest rate reduction policy.In the United States, the Biden government is also using various gorgeous algae to modify how the government acts, how the employment rate is improved, and how the effect of curbing inflation is good.Therefore, the turning of monetary policy is already on the board, and it can immediately play a very important role in promoting the economy.
The actual result is that the interest rate cut this year is going to fail, and the stimulus effect of interest rate cuts on the economy must also fail.The Bayeng government wants to use policies to boost the economy to add the hope of adding weights to the presidential election.This does make the US government embarrassed, and the Fed became a mouse in the box -both sides of the air.Therefore, in the future, the Fed will definitely start a fierce debate around whether this year's interest rate cuts, and the eagle and pigeons will start fierce confrontation.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts at the moment will have sufficient reasons and can get many supporters.The economy has not been restored according to the goals finalized by the government, and inflation has not been controlled as expected goals.2%of the inflation rate is the goal that most Federal Reserve officials can accept. As long as this goal is not achieved, the power to prevent interest rate cuts will be more powerful, making it difficult for the power to support interest rate cuts to break through the prevention of stopping.Even if the interest rate reduction policy is introduced, it will appear very reluctant, and it will even change again in the changes in inflation.According to the current method of the Fed's operation, it is unlikely to use interest rate cuts, and then rate hikes.Therefore, the probability of raising interest rates this year is also in the instability of inflation, which becomes more and more hopeless.
Without introducing interest rate cuts, the impact on the economy can also be imagined.The long -term high interest rate is very obvious for enterprises, especially corporate innovation.Why is the US government adopted nearly brutal means and sanction other countries, and even companies including allies, is a very important point. Since entering high interest rates, the competitiveness of American companies has declined to a certain extent.In order to protect the interests of local companies, the US government set up credit to disregard and adopt trade protection methods to safeguard the interests of domestic enterprises.The introduction of the chip bill is largely a very obvious means of trade protection.As the American media analyzed, China's electric vehicles rely on market competitiveness that it has obtained by technology and cost. Why should such competitiveness be attributed to subsidies of the Chinese government and the excess capacity of China?Therefore, from the Fed's differences on the interest rate cut, we can also see many clues.When the Federal Reserve can introduce interest rate cuts, I am afraid that it can only use time to change space.
The author is Chinese Financial Reviewer
