Source: Bloomberg
U.S. President Joe Biden will impose tariffs on industries with the core position of China's economic recovery. It seems that this is a bold blow to the most important competitors, but in fact, it will hardly weaken China's economic growth.
A person familiar with the matter revealed that after evaluating the existing tariffs on China, Biden may announce the decision to combat the "new three" Chinese green technology products next week.This is the latest signs of intensifying trade tensions between the two superpowers when the candidates for the two parties in the election of the two -party parties have intensified.
However, although electric vehicles, solar energy and battery industries are the core of policy blueprints formulated by China to get rid of the sluggish property market, they do not rely on American consumers.A few years ago, the existing tariffs blocked the Chinese car outside the US market, and most of the solar product companies exported to the United States from overseas to avoid similar restrictions.
"I don't think this will have a significant impact, because the initial tariffs have caused a heavy blow to them," said Gao Shuchao, a professor of law at Singapore Management University who studied Chinese trade policies."The Chinese government will issue a statement to protest new tariffs as usual, but it may not announce new countermeasures to avoid rebounding in the election year."
Although the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Lin Jian held a routine press conference held in Beijing on Friday on Friday, it was said that Beijing would "take all necessary measures to defend its own rights", but so far, China has been low -key on other similar symbolic gestures.Essence
Biden is trying to show a balance between the relations between the two countries while showing the toughness to China to protect the US employment without causing a major economic impact.Last month, he promised to impose a 25%tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum, but it is basically meaningless, because China has few metals in the United States, and the investigation of China's shipbuilding industry may take a long time to end.
If China wants to retaliate, it may be exported to US agricultural products, adding soybean or corn imports from other countries such as Brazil, or increased pork imports from countries such as Canada and Denmark.In the past 18 months, Brazil's corn exports to China have increased from almost nothing to about 700 million US dollars per month, stealing the U.S. share, and usually the United States is the largest source of China's imported corn.
Luo Minghui, a political assistant professor at Nanyang University of Science and Technology in Singapore, said that perhaps the real danger of Beijing is that Biden's symbolic actions for Chinese electric vehicles have set a precedent for China to have a market share.
"This is likely to be a prerequisite for the European Union to take other actions, because obviously they are also taking this problem very seriously," he added.He pointed out that the European Union began to investigate China's subsidy of its world's leading electric vehicle market last year.
Byden has so far been unwilling to implement a comprehensive tariff like a former President Donald Trump, but it is more popular with Chinese high -tech companies with targeted strike semiconductors and other strategic fields.These practices have not prevented Chinese companies that have the first advantage of the first advantage.
Any decision to impose new tariffs on Chinese products will make a little -known influence of the tension between the two countries the focus, that is, the direct trade between the two major economies of the world has shrunk over the past five years.
In 2023, only about 15%of China exports directly to the United States, which is the lowest level since China joined the World Trade Organization more than 20 years ago.Last year, only about 7%of the US exports directly entered China, which was nearly 10%below the epidemic period.
A large part of the trade between the two countries must pass through other countries, which makes it more difficult for the US government to impose tariffs on Chinese companies' products, especially if Chinese companies export components and then assemble them into finished products in countries such as Vietnam or Thailand.Essence
If the United States really tries to stop them, it may lead to a suspicion of the United States who want to get closer to countries.This transformation highlights how the global supply chain is re -positioned to cope with the impact of Trump's impact during its administration.
