The new Congress of South Korea elected 300 members on April 10.According to the results of the invoicing on the 11th, the Korean progress camp in the wild won, and the common Democratic Party and the Friendship Party won nearly 175 seats, expanding their advantages in Congress;shrink.In addition, the new party's "Motherland Innovation Party" created by former Legal Minister Cao Guo performed well in the election and won 12 seats, becoming a key "third forces".
This means that the South Korean progressive club has reversed the disadvantage of public opinion after 2021 and the defeat of the 2022 Presidential election. It has re -recognized the recognition of most citizens, which also means that the conservative ruling crisis of power deepen.
In the past few years, South Korean politics has flipped many times like roller coasters.In 2016, President Park Geun -hye was exposed to scandals that abused his powers and pouted cultists, and were impeached and stepped down. In 2017, the Presidential Election, Wen Zaiyin of the Progressive Club was elected and promoted a series of reforms.B where the government reform is accelerated.At that time, progressive clubs even believed that in the next 20 years, progressive clubs will be elected as president and the majority of Congress.
But after that, due to the failure to effectively solve the high housing prices and medical reforms of the Wen Zaiyin government, other reforms have also been limited, and many political scandals have been exposed, such as Cao Guomou's private incident, Park Yuanchun and Wu Judun's sexual harassment incident, Corruption in the South Korean Land Commune, etc., has caused a huge impact on the image of the ruling party.In just more than a year, the polls of the progress of progress have declined all the way, from far more than conservatives to 10 percentage points lower than conservatives.This is not only the reason for the incomparable reforms and frequent scandals, and it is also related to the laws of voters Yi Xixin's hate and political pendulum.
In 2022 Presidential elections, the progressive group Li Zaiming was lost to the conservative Yin Xiyue with a gap of 0.73 percentage points.Although the progressive faction still has the majority of Congress with the victory of 2020, South Korea is the presidential system, and the power of the president is far greater than that of Congress.Yin Xiyue's onto means that South Korea has returned to the conservative political path.
After Yin Xiyue came to power, he focused on promoting the political agenda of the right -wing conservatives.In terms of internal affairs, the efficiency of economic development is more emphasized, the positions of pro -business and tolerant chaebols are pursuing, and a friendly policy of large enterprises will be adopted to large enterprises, promoting tradition and family value, and also suspended a series of policies for pro -labor and women during the Wen Zaiyin period.External, Yin Xiyue improved Japan's relations and was close to the United States, actively participated in the United States, Japan and South Korea alliance cooperation, and alienated with China.
Yin Xiyue's series of internal foreign affairs policies, although they are pleased with the right -wing conservatives, but they cannot be supported by progressive and middle voters. Governance satisfaction has been hovering 30%to 40%, and dissatisfaction exceeds 50%.Yin Xiyue's government has also unable to solve various difficult problems faced by the former government, such as the downturn fertility rate, Seoul's high housing prices, and medical reforms that are difficult to take into account.Yin Xiyue's own and his wife and senior officials of the ruling party also exposed some scandals, such as his wife Jin Jianxi was exposed to accept name bags and academic qualifications for fraud.
Therefore, two years after Yin Xiyue and the conservative governance, public opinion gradually left the conservatives and turned back to the progressive school.The results of this Congress reflected the left movement of the Korean political pendulum.
Because South Korea is the presidential system, the progress of the progress in the Congress cannot recapture the governing power, but it has only maintained a pattern of the small field of the small field since 2020.However, in this election, the progressive group has expanded the advantages of the seats and the polls once showed that the majority of the parliamentary may seize the parliament, which caused the call to modify the Korean Constitution once again attracted widespread attention.
Modifying the call of the 1987 version of the Republic of Korea has already existed in South Korea.Although South Korea's "August Seven Constitution" (or "Constitution of the Sixth Republic") is the first constitution after democratization, which has strongly guaranteed democracy and human rights, but there are many ills.For example, it still continues the characteristics of the president's independence during the period of authoritarian authority. The setting system is conducive to the large party that is not conducive to the small party, and does not write important emerging issues such as gender equality and environmental rights.The provisions of democratic rights, etc., have been appearing compared to the era of rapid development.
Therefore, many Koreans want to amend the constitutional content, weaken the power of the president, strengthen the checks and balances of each authority, modify the election system, ensure the decision -making power of the people's referendum, and write the special rights of vulnerable groups and the history of citizens' struggle to the constitution.According to the South Korean Central Daily, polls show that the proportion of constitutional amendments is 66.5%, and only 9.9%of the opposition to constitutional amendments.However, for a long time, the conservatives who occupy more than one -third of Congress have objections to the direction and specific content of the constitutional amendment, so the constitutional amendment has not been successful.
Although the progress of this election has great victory, there are still more conservative seats than one -third of the total seat. The constitutional amendments want to fight for the support of two -thirds and at least 201 members of the parliament. It is very difficult.As a result, the constitutional amendment process of South Korea will still be put on hold.If the progressive faction wants to flip the South Korean political situation and restart the reform of the Wen government period, it may only wait for the 2027 presidential election to win.Just mastering Congress can only impose some restrictions on the Yin Xiyue government, and cannot fundamentally change the Yin government's internal affairs and diplomacy.
But the shrinking of the ruling party in the parliamentary seat still sounded the alarm to Yin Xiyue and conservatives.In the presidential election, Yin Xiyue, who won the faint majority, was originally thrilling when he was elected, and more than reputation after governing.Although it is easier to be criticized by the governors, it is the normal state of democracy, but if Yin Xiyue and the ruling party cannot face up to most public opinion and make strong reforms, I am afraid that they will not only make the president's throne change color again in 2027.The mistakes of Korean politicians.
Compared with other developed democratic countries, the struggle of Korean politics is more intense, the atmosphere of progress and conservative opposition is stronger, and the competition between the competition is even more unscrupulous.This bad political culture has both the influence of Korean historical grievances and traditional inertia, as well as factors of deformed political systems.The president is unique and the parliament is weak. Elected by the president's "all the winners" is the most prominent disadvantage of the Korean government.Therefore, the author tends to support Korean constitutional amendments and system reforms.
South Korea's political situation has been changing in the past few decades, and many reversed unexpectedly.For a moment, after governing, they often face all kinds of crisis, and they even feel sadly; the once failed political parties silently nourish in the people, and can re -integrate and re -power after a few years.Therefore, whether it is the downturn of the ruling party or the recovery of progressive clubs, the influence and trends reflected in this Congress election are limited to limited time and space.How to evolve in the future of South Korea has to wait for longer and experience more events to reveal more information and wind direction to analyze and verify more accurately.
The author is a writer in Europe, international political researcher
