Xi Jinping should hope that Xi Ma can show his determination, patience and hope for peace and unity to the domestic and international community.However, because Ma Ying -jeou's identity and influence could not be compared with the first Xi Ma Club, the persuasiveness of this peace signal was also greatly reduced.
After nine years, Ma Ying -jeou met with Xi Jinping again.During these nine years, there have been great changes in mainland China and Taiwan, and cross -strait relations have become more and more tense and dangerous.The internal changes in the United States are also very large, which corresponds to the great changes in the three parties of China and the United States and Taiwan.These changes have been observed by Beijing in the "unreasonable changes in the century", and Beijing is actively shaping this change in the direction that is conducive to its own.
In the 2015 Xi Jie, Ma Ying -jeou was Taiwan, but under the impact of the 2014 Sun Flower Student Games, the Kuomintang was defeated in local elections, and various polls showed the DPP Cai Yingwen.May win in the 2016 presidential election.Sure enough, although the Xi Ma Club caused heated discussion on cross -strait and international media, it failed to save the fate of the Kuomintang's defeat in the presidential and legislators elections.Later, under the governance of the DPP, Taiwan used the United States to gradually increase the opportunities to curb China to embark on the road of "United States and Anti -China".Eight years after the DPP is in power, Lai Qingde, who is about to take office, will continue on this road.After Ma Ying -jeou, who experienced the rapid improvement with the mainland, Taiwan entered a period of long -term governance of the DPP that was highly confrontable with the mainland.This is the biggest change in Taiwan's cross -strait relations in the past nine years.
When Xi Ma's first talks in Singapore, Xi Jinping just served as the mainland leader for three years and began to show the concepts and ideas of governing the party, governing the country different from the former leaders.On the issue of Taiwan, Xi repeatedly emphasized that the political differences between the two sides of the strait cannot be passed on from generation to generation, expressing the strong desire to solve the problem of Taiwan, breaking the taboos for him, and the first meeting with Ma Ying -jeou.The political, economic, and society of the mainland has experienced many changes in the period of Xi, and internally and outside are facing more challenges. However, the extended term of Xi can ensure that he continues to promote the concept of internal affairs and diplomacy, including continuing to promote the solution of the Taiwan issue.Therefore, the mainland will firmly follow the development path that you choose, including more firmly promoting the solution of the Taiwan issue.
When Xi Ma for a while, the Obama administration in the United States has always been supporting cross -strait relations, so its evaluation of Ma Ying -jeou is also very high.This is of course because the Obama administration has not yet formed a strategy of curbing China.For more than a year after Xi Ma for a while, Trump came to power and began to integrate anti -China forces in the United States. He gradually pushed the drama that curbs China to a climax, and obtained the two parties. So that he did not seek to improve the relationship with China after Bayeng came to power.Instead, the United League accompanied the country to curb China.In this situation, Taiwan's strategic value of Taiwan under the administration of the DPP has risen rapidly, and the United States and Taiwan continued to fight against China.It is the biggest change in the United States in Sino -US relations to adjust China as the number one opponent and to adjust the various Chinese threats in its eyes.
These changes in the respective China and the United States have set a structural framework for the interaction between the three parties.Such a framework heralds the relationship between mainland China and the United States, which will be dominated by confrontation in the next few years.However, the three parties also have the tacit understanding of "fighting without breaking", especially in China. In the case of greater pressure on the domestic economy, the stability of cross -strait relations and the stability of Sino -US relations is a necessary foundation.The environment is "steady and good".Since the San Francisco Summit at the San Francisco Summit in November last year, Sino -US relations have gradually stabilized, and even have improved signals.This also guarantees the basic stability of the situation in the Taiwan Strait since Lai Qingde's victory in January this year, because it is clear that Biden did not want to be destroyed by Lai Qingde in his election year.In the large framework of Sino -US -Taiwan relations based on confrontation, it is currently a small opportunity window with relatively stable relationships.This large framework and small window are the background of Xi Ma II.
Ma Ying -jeou's schedule of visiting land last year highlighted the historical and cultural connections of both sides of the strait, as well as the attractiveness of the high -tech emerging industries in mainland China.This time, there are similar schedules, which reflects that the mainland has attracted the old Taiwanese who have been educated by Chinese culture and historical education with Chinese culture and common history, and the ideas of young Taiwanese with high -tech emerging industries.In the speeches of the talks, Xi emphasized that the cultural and historical connections between the two sides of the strait could not be separated from both sides of the strait. Young people on both sides of the strait represent the future of cross -strait relations.
In addition, Ma visited the DJI drone company that was strongly sanctioned by the United States in Shenzhen. After browsing the ancient books in Xi'an, "the Diaoyu Islands did not belong to Ryukyu".In order to launch a foreshadowing on the same day of the talks with Xi Jinping at the first summit of the United States.Xi pointed out in his speech: "External interference cannot stop the historical trend of family reunion."
Ma Ying -jeou's politics in Taiwan is at the edge position
Xi Ma Er's significance to Ma Ying -jeou is still very great.In an interview with the media before the Taiwan election, he said that "cross -strait relations must trust Xi Jinping." As a result, it caused a stir in Taiwan. Even the Kuomintang did not dare to invite him to attend the nightmare party before the election.This is enough to reflect his marginal position in Taiwan's politics and even within the Kuomintang.
Xi Ma Erhui is Beijing's affirmation and encouragement, and Xi also explicitly stated that he "highly evaluated" in his speech.
Not only in Taiwan, Ma, but also a controversial figure in the mainland.Many mainlanders do not like him. They believe that he can't do his best when he is on the stage. Although he continues to anti -independence after steps, he is not active, so it is not true to promote unification with the mainland.
Xi Ma Erhui may improve his image in the mainland, but it should not help his influence in Taiwan.After visiting Lu back to Taiwan last year, he delivered a speech to emphasize the "1992 Consensus", but the KMT candidate Hou Youyi has been avoiding the 1992 consensus in the early stages of the election campaign. As a result, the results of Lu's visit to Lu cannot be fermented in the election campaign.This time, in his talks, he reiterated his adherence to the 1992 consensus and opposition to Taiwan independence, and also expressed the anxiety and concerns of Taiwan society for the current cross -strait relations, as well as the desire to avoid war with the mainland.After this visit to Taiwan, if his visit to Lu cannot be widely discussed and accepted by Taiwanese society, it is estimated that there will be no impact on Lai Qingde's inauguration speeches more than a month later.However, the important people of the Kuomintang will visit the land one after another, and it seems that the mainland tries to launch a small climax that expands Taiwan's anti -independence forces, hoping to form a constraint on the Lai Qingde Taiwan independence route within Taiwan.
After Lai Qingde's victory, the DPP is likely to be in power in Taiwan for a long time, which greatly reduces the hope of the mainland people for peace and reunification, which has led Beijing to adhere to the policy of peace and reunification as the first choice and face the challenges of domestic public opinion.Internationally, the United States has drawn the alliance to check and balance China by hype the "martial arts" schedule.If domestic and international, especially in Taiwan, think that peace is not too much to draw cakes, and martial arts will become self-fulfilling prophecy.Therefore, Xi should hope that Xi Ma can show his determination, patience and hope for peace and unity to the domestic and international community.However, because Ma Ying -jeou's identity and influence could not be compared with the first Xi Ma Club, the persuasiveness of this peace signal was also greatly reduced.Nevertheless, in the context of the current stable relationship between China and the United States and Taiwan, Xi Ma Er can be said to be adding bricks to this stable foundation.
The author is a senior researcher at the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore
