In the past, young votes have always been the DPP's pockets, but Lai Qingde's charm to young people is not as good as Cai Yingwen and Ke Wenzhe, so young votes support Ke Lai and Hou.However, the next election campaign, how to divide the votes that Ke Wenzhe still maintains, is an important issue for Lai and Hou camp.
After more than half a month's climax and the final blue and white, the blue, white, and green candidates were listed separately, and the election campaigns in Taiwan also entered the fierce stage of more than 30 days.The next three camps are the United States and China, each of which has several key points worth observing.
First look at Beijing.At the San Francisco Xi Conference in mid -November, US President Biden warned Chinese President Xi Jinping not to get involved in the Taiwan election, but this warning at most made Beijing not be too bold.The more neutral saying is that Beijing will definitely try to "influence" the Taiwan election.Just as the people's party candidate Ke Wenzhe revealed that the United States Association in Taiwan had called him to understand whether Lanbaihe had intervention in China.Both the United States and China and China hope that the results of the election will be conducive to them.
In April this year, when Ma Ying -jeou visited Taiwan from mainland China, he said: "Our government continues to lead Taiwan to danger. The future is that Taiwan must choose between peace and war.""Selection of war and peace".When Ma Ying -jeou advocated the blue -and -white harmony, many people thought it was affected by Beijing, but from the perspective of subsequent development, it was more like Ma Ying -jeou wanted to add another sum to his historical contributions after Ma Ying -jeou wants to be a Ma Xie and landing ancestors.
Beijing's most obvious impact on the Taiwan election so far is Foxconn founder Guo Taiming's withdrawal.In late October, the Global Times released the official inconsistent provision of tax evasion and land use in many factory areas in Foxconn Group.After the news came out, Guo Taiming's election activity turned to a low -key.By the end of November, the Blue and White Hyoune was critical, and the Foxconn Wuhan plant was fined RMB 20,000 (about S $ 3760) for tax issues, which is equivalent to gently put down.After Guo Taiming decided to withdraw the election, this coincidence was fun.
Blue and green actively divide Ke Wenzhe support tickets
During the blue and white consultation stage, Hou Youyi gradually caught up with Ke Wenzhe.Ke Wenzhe's decline in the momentum is mainly attributed to two points: first, the young votes who originally supported him left, and the other was that pan -blue supporters returned to Hou Youyi under the team.However, Ke Wenzhe still has more than 10 % support so far. These votes are actively attacking the division of blue and green.
In the past two presidential elections, young votes have always been the Democratic Progressive Party's pocket, but Lai Qingde's charm to young people is not as good as Tsai Ing -wen and Ke Wenzhe, so young votes support Ke Lai and Hou.However, the People's Party intends to nominate Xu Chunying, a mainland spouse Xu Chunying, as a no -division legislator, but it is unclear to say that her nationality disputes have lost many young voters.In addition, young voters have a low favorability of the Kuomintang. In the process of blue and white, Ke Wenzhe once bowed his head to the Kuomintang and lost a large part.In the next election campaign, how to divide the votes that Ke Wenzhe still maintains is an important issue for Lai and Hou camp.
In this regard, the blue and green parties have made deployment: Hou Youyi is a candidate with strong local colors, and some even call him "blue and green bone". He must actively seize the so -called dark blue votes. ThereforeFormer Kaohsiung Mayor South Korea Yu was on the list of non -section legislators.Then Hou Youyi found Zhao Shaokang, who was unified by the Kuomintang to be the candidate for the vice presidential president, and Zhao Shaokang immediately hit Ke Wenzhe.He bluntly stated that Ke Wenzhe's support was less than 20 %, and the Kuomintang won 45 % of votes.
Zhao Shaokang, who is good and good, can enhance Hou Youyi's combat power, but Zhao Shaokang has a strong opinion and has a stronger volume than Hou. It is not like he will be willing to be a "head of state".Since Zhao Zilong in the Three Kingdoms era, he helped Liu Bei to fight the world. Immediately, a good person was pointing at him that he was implying that Hou Youyi was Adou.The opponent Lai Qingde also satirized that he made Hou Youyi into a puppet.
Lai Qingde's current score is Xiao Meiqin, a representative of Taiwan who has just stepped down to the United States.Xiao Meiqin, 52, was a mixed -race of Taiwan and the United States. He was born in Taiwan and immigrated to the United States in middle school. He then received a master's degree in political science from Columbia University.Her Taiwan has a strong local consciousness, has a broader world view and the ability to actively participate in international affairs. In contrast, Hou Youyi and Ke Wenzhe are relatively sparse in international issues, and the other two vice presidential candidates cannot be compared with Xiao.Many young people in Taiwan are facing the world when they choose the future, and they have not excluded options for development in mainland China, but it is just one of the options.
"Like Cats" pulled a lot of votes for Xiao Meiqin
The image like Xiao Meiqin is in line with the model pursued by young people.More importantly, Xiao Meiqin is a cat slave. At this moment in Taiwan, "like cats" is a secret language that communicates with many Chinese and young people, which has pulled her a lot of votes for her.Xiao Meiqin, who was a diplomat, had a conversation at several press conferences. It was properly controlled.The Democratic Progressive Party attempts to use her image to give the presidential election significance: this is the choice of Taiwan's "going to the world or locking into China".
What is the biggest cover of Lai Qingde?He once claimed to be "pragmatic Taiwan independence workers".This is the focus of the Kuomintang and Beijing's continuous attack, and Washington also hopes that he will clarify it.This sentence was said in the Legislative Yuan when Lai Qingde served as the Executive Yuan in 2017. His original words were: "I am a political worker who advocates Taiwan's independence, and I am also a pragmatic Taiwan independence.A country with sovereignty is independent, named the Republic of China, and will not announce Taiwan independence separately. "
Lai Qingde's discussion has also focused on the Republic of China Taiwan, which is already a country with sovereignty and independence, and returned to Tsai Ing -wen's more stable "four persistence". However, his opponents will still attack him for Taiwan independence issues.
Three Chinese experts including Bonnie Glaser on November 30th published articles on foreign affairs of important journals to talk about US -China and Taiwan relations. Among them, if Lai Qingde was elected, he should consider frozen Taiwan independence party programs.This was proclaimed by Guo Zhengliang, a TV name of the anti -Minjin Party, and Zhu Lilun, chairman of the Kuomintang, as a proof of Washington's unbelievable Lai Qingde.
In fact, the focus of this article is not to repair Taiwan's independence party, but to emphasize that the security of Taiwan cannot rely on the "Deterrence", but also focuses on "reassure".That is to say, on the one hand, the United States and Taiwan should strengthen armed Taiwan to observe the military committed China in mainland China. At the same time, it is also necessary to reiterate that Taiwan will not be independent to obtain the trust of Beijing.The three authors believe that freezing the Taiwan independence party platform is a way to ensure.It should be noted that the article not only recommends that Lai Qingde must guarantee that it is not unique, but also requires Beijing to guarantee that if Taiwan does not declare independence, Beijing will not move martial arts.However, the fame and politicians of anti -green camps only require the DPP unilateral guarantee, and Beijing does not require Beijing to make a relatively guarantee.Ge Laiyi also clarified on X (former Twitter), saying that Taiwanese media and politicians claimed their claims for her context.
In fact, this article is not new, and the three authors more than a year ago have about 10 other Chinese and strategic experts to prevent the Taiwan Strait War.The Taiwan issue is "clearly strategic" (that is, clearly warning Beijing, once the Taiwan Strait will intervene in the United States), and the claim must be guaranteed in addition to rejection.
Will the Democratic Progressive Party modify or freeze the Taiwan independence party platform?Judging from the evolution trajectory for more than 30 years, it is unlikely.Because the Democratic Progressive Party has announced that the 1999 Taiwan future resolutions are announced: Taiwan, Taiwan, has been a sovereign independent country, so there is no need to declare independence.Some people may question: Since there is no need to declare independence, why not simply abolish the Taiwanese independence party platform?According to the logic of the Democratic Progressive Party: This is the ultimate weapon to fight against Taiwan in mainland China -you guarantee that "no martial arts", I will "not independent"; if you do not guarantee "not martial arts," I don’t need to declare "not independent uniqueness first"" ".The discussion of the Kuomintang and the People's Party is that the DPP does not give up the Taiwan independence party.It is emphasized that "the 2024 presidential election is a election of war and peace."
Less than 40 days before the election, "go to the world or locked into China" or "choose war or peace"?These two choices will be the focus of offense and defense of Taiwan's winter and the field.
The author is a columnist in Taiwan
