In 2024, the Taiwan election enters the countdown, and all parties are analyzing and predicting the results of the election and the impact on both sides of the strait, China, and the United States and the Asia -Pacific region.According to some of the latest Taiwan polls, the DPP Lai Xiaohe and the Kuomintang's Hou Zhaoping have narrowed the support gap to the error range, and it is difficult to divide the victory until the end.
Because the DPP Lai Qingde is a strong supporter of Taiwan independence than Taiwan Cai Yingwen, and the Kuomintang's Hou Youyi adheres to the 1992 consensus and is willing to communicate with the mainland. Therefore, many people think of this election as a war and peace.choose.
The United States has always been very concerned about Taiwan's political situation.The President of the United States in Taiwan, Rosen Berg, said in Taiwan in October this year that the United States does not support Taiwan's independence.Bonnie Glaser, director of the Indo -Pacific Project of Marshall Foundation in the United States, Jessica Chen Weiss, Professor of Cornell University, and Three influential scholars, Professor of Columbia University, November 30th.The joint name wrote in the journal of foreign affairs to talk about the best deterrence of avoiding the Taiwan Strait crisis, that is, the three parties made a credible "re -guarantee": the policy of maintaining the status quo of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait not only opposes the unity of the use of force in mainland China, but also opposes Taiwan to independence independence.Political actions; Beijing can reiterate the unity of hope, as long as Taiwan does not seek formal independence, the mainland will not easily move martial arts; the text also calls on Lai Qingde to win, and it should be considered to freeze the Taiwan independence party platform.And credibility.
Many people think that the United States from officials to scholars worry that the election of Lai Qingde will trigger the Taiwan Strait crisis, so now it seems that through various channels, in the last few weeks of the election, they express such worry.Hou Youyi more?
Frankly speaking, the United States will not openly indicate preferences and will accept the results of the election.However, the official and many scholars in the United States believe that Tsai Ing -wen has been relatively stable in the past eight years. It has not only strengthened national defense and Taiwan -US relations, but also has not provoked the mainland.The United States has a high evaluation of Cai. Now Lai Qingde has adjusted his long -term self -consciousness as a "Taiwan independence worker", saying that he will continue the route of Cai. It should be said that the United States is very satisfied.The election partner also reassured the United States.
So, instead of saying that Rosen Berg and Ge Laiyi are putting pressure on Lai Qingde, it is better to say that they are supporting him or guiding chess.Many people thought that if Lan and Baihe broke the game, Lai Qingde could win.Now the support of the two groups of candidates in the blue and green groups is in a state of stalemate, and it is difficult to predict who wins.In this case, if Lai Qingde actively responds to the concerns of the United States, he can attract more intermediates and young voters in the standpoint of cross -strait issues or converge on Taiwan independence positions, and the possibility of being elected will be greater.
The United States hopes that the Cai Line can continue
The DPP's administration may be more conducive to the United States' implementation of its Indo -Pacific strategy, and the DPP government is only "beauty". It is also easier for the United States to control Taiwan's political situation and cross -strait relations.Therefore, it can be said that the United States expressed the concern of Lai Qingde, not to be dissatisfied with him or to help Hou Youyi to help, but hopes that the current Cai's route can continue, because this is most in line with US interests.
The Democratic Progressive Party is very packaging and promoting themselves.Due to the "democracy and autocracy" of the Sino -US competition and the Bayeng government's foreign policy, and the effect of the Russian and Ukraine War and the Harbin War, the American people will support the government to defend the "democracy Taiwan".This is very conducive to the DPP to promote its relevant policies and discussions, which indirectly leads to the United States who gradually deviate from the "No. 1 Middle School" policy when dealing with cross -strait issues and favor the DPP government.
Indeed, some of the International Propaganda of the Democratic Progressive Party have deeply affected the relevant discussions of the United States and the West.For example, the DPP government believes that it has not changed the status quo. Taiwan is independent.For another example, the DPP simplifies this election into a choice of "pro -beauty" or "pro -China". Is it the old way to protect Taiwan's democracy or let Taiwan go back to China?As the former President Ma Ying -jeou pointed out that Tsai Ing -wen's statement attempts to change the status quo on both sides of the strait is the "theory of the two countries" and also violates the Constitution of the Republic of China.However, many Western politicians and scholars are attached to the DPP government's discussion, let alone the general public who do not understand the complexity of cross -strait relations and the complexity of Sino -US relations.
Most ordinary American people agree with the DPP's statement that Taiwan and mainland China are two countries, and the so -called "autocratic China" must forcibly annex "democratic Taiwan".In recent years, polls show that the proportion of the United States people supporting the government to protect Taiwan has increased year by year.According to a latest civilian transfer from the Reagan National Defense Forum, if mainland China "invaded" Taiwan, 46%of the interviewed Americans supported the United States to defend Taiwan, and 72%of the respondents supported Taiwan as an independent country.
Perhaps the US government does not have to worry about whether Lai Qingde's victory will cause trouble for the United States. After all, there is no acquiescence in the United States. Any Taiwanese leaders will not go too far on extreme routes.Perhaps what the U.S. government really wants to worry about is to avoid war in the Taiwan Strait.In order to threaten the US opinion, the US administrative officials crossed the Chinese red line on the issue of Taiwan, which caused war.
The author is a professor of politics and international relations at the University
