Source: Zhongshi Electronic News
Author: Zhang Deng and
The Taiwan election is currently showing the situation of the Quartet.If there are at least three parties running to the end, the ending has been set, and the ruling party will continue to rulge.Although Lai Qingde still needs to refresh the cabinet and policies, there will be some folding bottle in the party, but it will not affect the situation of the Green Camp's independence in the future.
With the leading party, three or four groups of competition are the most favorable.Its supporters will also actively encourage the final group of polls.Due to the defeat of the wild group, the voting rate is reduced, and most of the supporters will blame the party's rotation failure before the invoicing will blame the fourth group.Therefore, in addition to cheering in the fourth group, the wisdom of being a key person in the overall situation must be.
The first three combinations are similar to the asymmetric triangles of Wei, Shu, and Wu.Wei has an advantage in grain grass and military strength, just like the current ruling party has stabilized 35%to 40%in many polls, and also occupied the upper hand in the central administration and most media in the country.The author believes that, like many elections in the past, it is not necessarily "middle voters" that do not express, but most of the DPP supporters.During the three parties, the Green Camp may still win nearly 45%of the votes.Different from the ancient three countries, victory does not mean annihilating opponents.Due to the goodness of the Baiying political parties, the number of parliamentary seats in the non -partition is expected to grow a lot compared to the previous session. Even if the regional seats have won less, as long as the presidential votes are ranked second, it is still a small victory in the short term.The Kuomintang, which plays the third of the presidential votes, will be in accountable disputes after the election.As long as Bai Ying worked hard to make the presidential vote, the market seemed to see a bullish.That is, Cao Wei continued to be a village.Wei Wu's governance seems to be worthy of the expectations of the people's party. It also echoed President Li President Li to cast a "local two -party system" and prepare for Taiwan's "ultimate plan".
However, if you carefully evaluate it again, you will find that although there are many closeness in "local value", how can the three -game winning streak ruling party be happy to see the romantic "local two -party system"?In addition to winning the election, those who have achieved merits urgently need to encourage, and Baiying eats whales to swallow the young sector votes, which makes the Green Camp grass -roots "Budo Ko Jiu".When the two sides of the strait are tight, unless Chairman Ke is willing to declare with the green work, he will be a "leftovers" such as "a family".But even if Wu Wang lost his sincerity, Cao Wei would be like Dong Wu like this?Still unreasonable.
Besides, there are two risks of green, white, and blue.First of all, if the Blue Camp quickly declined, other emerging pro -green political parties and folk righteousness would turn to concentrated attacks on the various coaches of the White Army and their coach.Under the enemy and back to the enemy, Soochow, even if it absorbs some of the Shu Han dynasties, it is difficult to escape the lesson and decline of the orange camp.Secondly, the "undefeated" of the three parties competing and running to the end is only to consider the situation of winning Jingshu Shu, Wei Wu, and Lai Ke.However, the situation in Taiwan is the cicada of praying mantis, and the yellow bird and the projectile are like a shadow.Not to mention whether Washington fully understands and trusts the emerging Bai Army, Beijing may not tolerate the continuous unique green camps that promote the theory of the two countries.If the Blue Camp is quickly marginalized, can the people's party bear the heavy responsibility of maintaining the two -strait dialogue alone?Can it be lonely to restrain the green camps that are governed by the National Policy for three times?Considering the responsibility in the wild and eased the cross -strait crisis, the answer should be very simple.
Since the three -party melee is not really favorable for Bai Ying, Bai Ying should carefully consider the meaningful strategy of refusing Wei to refuse Wei, and in the future.At present, it is rumored that non -green parties determine the coalition form at the appropriate time point.To find the "quasi -final" score method that both parties can accept, the project is arduous.In addition to the candidates of the commander, the more important thing is whether the "Shu Wu Union" has sufficient "righteousness" to persuade the voters.It should be noted that the two armed forces of Lan Bai still have a lot of supporters.The coalition forces without righteousness, like the Six Kingdoms Anti -Qin League, were easily disintegrated by the opponent. As a result, it fell into the trap of "OnePlus One Smaller and Two".
The author believes that the two items of "comparing the handsome" and "coalition forces" are indispensable for the integration of the wild.For the three parties, for the Bai Army, it was short; for the Blue Army, at most, it was barely better than the White Army in the finals, and the future of the two final defeats was also very dangerous.Regardless of blue and white, it should be a "real election" for voters and Taiwan, and strives to the last moment.
The author is a professor at the Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University
