Source: Taiwan Wangbao
Wangbao Society Review
The export of exports is small, Taiwan's economic growth rate cannot be "guaranteed 2". Most institutions even predict that it will not exceed 1.6%, a new low of eight years.It is reflected in employment issues, although the unemployment rate has not increased, but the number of non -salary leave workers has increased, and normality is swimming between 10,000 and 20,000, which is a rare phenomenon in recent years.Looking forward to next year, in the Sino -US economic confrontation, it is difficult to distinguish between the Sino -US economic confrontation and the situation of the Russian and Ukraine War, the world economy is difficult to have a glorious scene.
ECFA variable economy is hard to be economical
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the global, the United States and China will not be higher than this year. The United States has slipped from 1.8%this year to 1.0%, and China will explore 4.5%from 5.2%.Therefore, not only can Taiwan be better next year, but there will be a worry -free new problem. After the selection next year, mainland China is likely to be actions for the ECFA (Cross -Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement) and the "Trade Barrier" issue.There was a major impact on the Taiwan economy.
ECFA signed the "Architecture Agreement" and an additional "Early Collection List" in 2010. The cross -strait service trade agreement was signed by the "Sun Flower Student Games" so far in the Legislative Yuan., Formed a deadlock.However, the Cai government insisted on the "early collection list" that originally "made benefits" that was originally "conceded" in Taiwan.Recently, the mainland's "polycarbonate" of thermoplastic materials in the early collection list sacrificed the "anti -dumping" measures, revealing that ECFA was facing the clue of crisis.At the beginning of next year, if the Taiwan election was selected by the anti -China party, many people were worried that ECFA might be abolished by the mainland.
In more serious than ECFA, when the two sides of the Strait joined the WTO (WTO), Taiwan did not open the import market to the other side; although it was then opened, there are still 2455 land goods that have been controlled and imported.Imported from the relevant industry for projects.Although the mainland had been dissatisfied in the WTO in the past, it has not launched a formal action on the matter.However, in April of this year, Lu Fang announced the launch of a trade barriers to Taiwan. In August, it further announced that the filed project has increased from 2455 items to 2509, mainly in petrochemical, textiles, electromechanical equipment, automobiles, agricultural and people's livelihood, etc.It is determined that Taiwan's trade restrictions on the mainland violate the rules of the WTO.All parties are worried that if the land party starts a relatively equal trade revenge on Taiwan ’s exports, it will seriously impact Taiwan’ s exports to the mainland, especially traditional industries, and the impact of employment must not be underestimated.
Make a low salary of outsourcing service industry
What is even more worrying is that 15 member states and 70 % of the regional comprehensive economic partnerships (RPP) that account for 70 % of Taiwan exports have come into effect. Although no formal evaluation is seen, many experts believe that because Taiwan is not a member of the membershipIt is impossible to enjoy mutual tariffs between members, and has begun to produce a "trade transfer" effect on Taiwan exports, further deteriorating Taiwan exports.This development will cause major adverse investment in Taiwan, leading to a large number of Taiwanese enterprises to the opposite shore and Southeast Asia, which has caused further impact on the future economy of Taiwan.
If the manufacturing industry is accelerated, the Taiwan economy will be more dependent on the service industry, but the development of the service industry in recent years is disappointing. More than half of Taiwan's employment population is the service industry. The low salary is serious.According to the information of the General Office, before the Sunflower Study, the average monthly income of the service industry employees has a average monthly income of NT $ 3,000 (about S $ 127). Last year, it was reversed to 3,000 yuan behind.The service industry accounts for 30 % of the wholesale and retail industry, expanding from 1500 yuan to 8,400 yuan from backward manufacturing; showing that the Taiwan service industry market is small, innovative investment capabilities are insufficient, and productivity and salary are difficult to improve.After the manufacturing industry moved out, there was no strong service industry replacing the manufacturing industry to play the role of economic locomotive. It is difficult for Taiwan's economy to further upgrade. This is a problem that all people who care about Taiwan must think and face.
Since the beginning of this year, the two sides of the strait are not ideal, and the degree of needs to each other is higher; especially the service industry, Taiwan needs the market size of the mainland, and the mainland needs the delicate quality and innovative thinking of Taiwan.A feasible approach is to join the WTO model on both sides of the Strait to join the Cross Pacific Partners Comprehensive Progress Progress Agreement (CPTPP).The two sides of the strait lacked political mutual trust and excluded each other to join each other, causing contradictions among members of the organization, and thus cold treatment.If you can change your mind, support the other party to join, and are willing to be a "free trade agreement" (FTA) that meets the organization's standard under the organization's structure, the crisis can become an opportunity.All presidential candidates for political parties should propose that "the CPTPP path map is jointly joined by the strait" to alleviate Taiwan's upcoming economic crisis.
