Source: Hong Kong 01
Author: Liu Yanting
On August 23, the founder of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, died, and there were several Vagina high -levels in the same machine.In the last year of life, the Vladimir Putin's confidant became a global level of traffic stars and received widespread attention from the media.It is just that its traffic foundation is mostly from the ash face of the Russian regular army, which may lead to the death of individuals.
On April 29th, Pricigen positively threatened the Russian Ministry of Defense, saying that Wagner only obtained 10%to 15%of the required ammunition.With Bakhmut.On May 7th, Pryo was softened, saying that the Russian army had promised to provide more ammunition support, and assigned "Special Military Operations" Deputy Commander Sergey Surovikin to come to cooperate, so Wagner will continue to stay in Bach Mumumumumumumuspecial.Although the front line of Russia and Ukraine was not substantially affected, the image of the Russian army was seriously dusty, and the cracks of Wagner and the regular army became global talks. Only Perigo reached the patriotic traffic of "bluntly advance".
On June 24, Pritigen performed the ultimate political gambling: leading Wagner to launch a mutiny.The group first entered Rostov, which entered the Russian -Ukraine border, and controlled the headquarters of the Southern Military Region, and after asking the Defense Chief of the Chief of Staff, the chief of staff, Valery Gerasimov, came to the negotiations.Go north to Moscow.This conflict seems to start with Pryigo as a soldier, the purpose is to refuse Wagner and the Ministry of Defense's formal contract. In fact, it is more of the exhibition of the Russian traditional court coup: there are dissatisfaction within the Russian army that is dissatisfied with "the core of shogu and Grassimov".The faction, hoping to force Putin to replace the defense and chief of staff through the emergencies of the Wagner's mutiny, so they did not actively stop Wagnerh's trouble.
But Putin obviously did not be threatened, but directly set the Wagner's "rebel" after the mutiny, showing Libao Shoshigu and Gracimov's determination.In the end, Wagner failed to wait for the large -scale voting of the regular army, so he had to turn around and leave on the eve of Moscow, which led to the end of the hour after the mutiny.After the autumn, the accounting, including destroying the commercial empire of Perigo, and reducing Wagner's war in news reports.
From this context, no matter where the crash is the case, whether the Kremlin is known or instructed beforehand, this incident will bring two major benefits to Putin: further weaken Wagner's autonomy, and more consolidate Putin more.Power.
Pryigon re -revive Wagner's beast fighting
As mentioned earlier, shortly after the end of the mutiny, Putin began to liquidate Pleigon and Wagner.
On June 26, Putin delivered a national television speech, emphasizing that the Wagner soldiers were allowed to move to Perlogs (formerly known as Belarus) with Pleigon, or signed a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense, or simply returned to return.Go to your family (meant retirement).Such a plan seems to be open -minded, in fact, it is the intention to close and crack the Wagner.
On June 27, Putin delivered a speech in the Kremlin, saying that since May 2022, the Kremlin not only "funded" Wagner, but also paid the relevant expenses of Wagner personnel and their families with the Russian federal budget, and "Concord Management and Consulting (Crigo Creation Consortium), from May 2022 to May 2023, made a profit of 80 billion rubles (S $ 1.1 billion of 1.1 billion yuan 1.1 billion yuan to the Russian army.), The Kremlin will investigate related golden flow.This is obviously to make Pryo's appointment from "patriotic loyal ministers" into "corruption".
After establishing the image of "corruption" that Poigo appoints, Putin pushed the next step: dissolving the "Patriot" (патриот) Media Holding Group and "Kangkode Group" of Pleigo.Golden flowing at the bottom of the cubs; then to allow the Russian National TV Channel "Russia-1" (Russian: россия-1) to promote the "Wagner's combat power than the regular army."Wagner took 224 days to attack Bach Murd for 224 days, the purpose of destroying Wagner's folk reputation; Finally, the substantive battlefield arrangement, Wagner failed to play an important role on the front line of Russia, eliminating all the possibilities of making reunion.
Comprehensive aforementioned, Putin seems to pardon the Wagner mutiny personally pardoned in the legal sense. In fact, it is unwilling to make the latter's possibility of resurgence in Dongshan.Therefore, in addition to confiscation of Pricig's assets, annexing its commercial empire, and destroying their public opinion foundation, Putin also began to weaken Wagner's survival energy as a military subject, including instructed the Russian Ministry of Defense to organize a new private military committee to divide the original Wagner system with melons.The roles in Africa and the Middle East are recruited from the former Wagner personnel.
In the case where Pritigon's reputation sweeping the ground and damage to financial resources, some of the senior commanders of Wagner did switch to the Ministry of Defense for this; more sources pointed out that because the Russian side is unwilling to bear Wagner's expense in the White Rose's expenses, President of President Alexander Lukashenko also unintentionally paid, and some Wagner personnel left Belos.The tens of thousands of power brigades who originally watched Pleigo had indeed fined under Putin's disassembly.
Perhaps this is because of this, Pricig has recently gained high -profile actions: increased the strength of rebuilding Wagner in Africa and the Middle East, and released a video of his unknown African countries on August 21 to change his soldiers.After a few public appearances, the recruitment means very strong.In this way, it is obviously to resist the liquidation of Wagner in Africa.According to sources from the Russian security department, Andrei Averyanov, deputy director of the General Staff and Director of the Special Activity Division, has banned Wagner from conducting activities in Africa and plans to replace it with a legion of more than 20,000 people.
From the perspective of the results, Pryigo's struggle is obviously a useless beast fighting: because whether the crash is an accident or artificial, the substantial effect of this incident is to let Perigo Ren and Utkin (Utkin (The Vagina high -level Vagina, including Dmitry Utkin, almost "died", like the dusk of the gods of Nordic mythology.For many years, Perigon and Utkin are important spokespersons for Wagner. The death of the two will undoubtedly have a negative impact on Wagner's command structure and brand.As a result, the latter decided to leave Wagner or sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense when he was disheartened and worried about life safety.
According to this development, even if Wagner can still survive, it is necessary to retreat to the second line in Africa and the Middle East, and share the site with other military organizations led by the Ministry of National Defense. As for the Russian and Ukraine front line that Wagner has contributed to the bloody battle, basically it will basically not.Because the crash was affected, because Putin deliberately reduced the possibility of Wagner again, and Ukraine's big counterattack failed to fight offensive, and the regular army can cope with the current situation.In this way, Wagner's decline should be unavoidable.
Putin's power is more consolidated
For Putin, regardless of the truth of the crash, it will usher in the consolidation of power, even if they are ridiculed to be a "black party party" or "godfather";The probability will stabilize the follow -up situation as a "solid ally", rather than being forced to hang the crown.
I have previously seen the Russian Army of Ukraine (1): Wagner became the King of Flow, but who is the leader of the war?According to the analysis of the article, even though Pricigen has extremely high media exposure, Wagner is not the main force of the front line, and the leadership of the battlefield has always been in Putin, Shaygu, Glacimov threeIn the hands, Putin also formed a symbiotic relationship with the latter two for more than 10 years, and this relationship will continue.
First of all, Shaygu and Gracimov.Since 2012, the two have served as Chief of Defense and Chief of Staff. From the perspective of formal structure, the Chief of Staff is under the jurisdiction of the Minister of Defense, but in the battlefield implementation, the General Staff plays the role of political leadership and armed forces.In the window, the departments of the Ministry of National Defense are more like supporting agencies of the General Staff, not control and supervisors.Under the tacit collaboration of Shaygu and Gracorph, the Russian army has repeatedly built magical achievements in the Crimean crisis in 2014 and the Syrian civil war in 2015.Establish an image of a military power.
Next is Putin.The reason why it can be "Russia's Rise" political aura, although economic growth is the focus, military expansion is also the same: it is precisely because of the 10 -year military merits of Shaygu and Gracorph, Putin can consolidate the strong man of "patriotic tough guys".Image.Of course, the Russian and Ukraine War once constituted a huge challenge to the Putin regime. After all, the battlefield performance of the Russian army was indeed unsatisfactory. Russian society also had anti -wars and public opinion.Core "impatient.However, the aforementioned all kinds of determination can not prevent Putin Liezohu and Gracorph's determination, because it is themselves that they are fighting for many years.The dilemma of decentralization allows you to lag in advance.
Because of this, Putin did not compromise when Wagner entered, and after the end of the mutiny, he strengthened his support for the two: first let the Shogu appear publicly, resolve the external guess of the outside world, and then with Grassimov with Grassimov togetherThe headquarters of the Southern Military Region, which was controlled by Wagner, expressed the support of the Chief of Staff for the Chief of Staff.On the recent "Army 2023 Forum", Alexey Dyumin, the Governor of Tura, who had been rumored to replace Shaygore and took over as the defense chief, also attended the sceneAttending the posture, Putin's support for Shaygu is self -evident.
Then focus on the crash.Regardless of whether Putin has been approved, the Kremlin Palace has performed scary and punishment with an action, which is the commander of the Russian Air Heavenly Army who announced the dismissal of Surovijin on the same day of the crash.EssencePrior to this, Surovijin was regarded as a general who was associated with Pritigo, and after the mutiny, it was reported that the wind was not reported, arrested and investigated.Peskov also refused to clarify the rumors and asked the reporter to "ask the Ministry of Defense" to some extent the default.
The Cremlin was selected to expose the matter on the day of Porigen's death. Even if it has nothing to do with the crash, it is obviously intending to release clear information through the public punishment and crash of Surovin.On the 24th, the rebellion and challenging the core of Putin's leadership will not be easily let go.Because no matter how proper reasons for the mutiny, Wagner did lead to the death of 13 Russian soldiers. More importantly, the soldiers of the soldiers and the executives of Putin and the regular army suffered major humiliation.It is not broken.
Of course, in view of Vagna's traffic in Russian military bloggers and right -wing patriotic public opinion fields, even if it is really the leadership of Putin, the Kremlin may not admit it.Observing the official Russia after the incident, Rosaviatiya, Russia's aviation regulatory agency, has set up a special committee to investigate the technical conditions of the crash, meteorological conditions, dispatching services and ground radio equipment on the flight routes, which has caused the outside world to "faults and crasses"Conclusion conjecture; more Russian military bloggers speculated that the investigation committee may attack Ukraine drones, resulting in the ultimate conclusion of the air defense system "hitting the aircraft after the error starts".
From the perspective of power, the conclusions of the investigation cannot be obtained from the outside world, which can play two roles: First, Russia has not acknowledged the execution of the Vagina high -level, and the patriotic public opinion field can naturally not be able to bite and shout to be Pu for Pu.Ligo is applied to grievances; second, from the perspective of all parties, perhaps ten or nine or nine is Putin's intention, and can provide discussion to a certain extent, allowing all parties to guess that the crash is Putin's "ultimate revenge", which is both presentation.The core of Putin's core is not broken, and it is also intimidated to a certain extent. Whether it is a martial arts faction with ghosts, or those who intend to "take over early".
In any case, the dusk caused by the crash, combined with Wagner's previous liquidation, Putin Liba, Glacimov, Surovijin, was dismissed, conveying a political narrative that Kremlin was also very happy: PutinThe era has not passed, and it is about to go to the peak.
