Source: China News Weekly
Author: Cao Ran, Zheng Liying
After Russia's private military entities, the leader of the Wagner organization, Poligon, after the crash of the special planes took on August 23, local time, various speculations on the cause of special plane crashed quickly fermented.
Although there are many rumors that he is still alive on the Russian social media, Perigen's friends, Russian right -wing thinker Du Jin and others have publicly mourned this strong, confident and bold person.The original Wagner's headquarters of St. Petersburg was placed by Pricig's supporters, and Russian President Putin had returned to Moscow urgently.Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov told the media that Putin has learned about the matter and has taken necessary measures.
The gray area of social media channels associated with Wagner claims that Pryigon's special plane is shot down by the air defense fire of the Federal Ministry of Defense.A source of the Russian Federal Aviation Transportation Bureau told the online media Tsargrad that the aircraft was blown up.
However, most professionals think that these judgments are insufficient, and they cannot be concluded at present.A Russian military blogger, a former Air Force pilot, said that in all video information circulating on social media, there was no sign that the aircraft was shot down by the missile.Russian officials are still investigating various possibilities of aircraft crashes.
As of 2 pm on August 24th, Beijing time, the latest news from the Russian media said that all the 10 victims' remains have been found, the corpses of Pritigon have been initially confirmed, and DNA analysis is in progress.
What is currently determined is that seven passengers on board include many Pleigo security personnel. The senior management of Wagner's organization has not been beaten by one net, especially the main military leaders codenamed white -haired are not on the list of difficulties.
As far as I know, Virga's senior administrators are mainly accompanied by Pryigon (boarding the plane), but they are not the main person in charge of Wagner's organizational combat forces.Former Director -General of the Russian International Affairs Commission, Koltinov told China News Weekly on August 24 that Wagner's combat effectiveness will not be completely hit, but serious management problems are likely to occur in the future.
Is it shot down by the missile?
Although the civil aviation passenger plane was accidentally hit occasionally, the business jet was shot down in this century.The recently shot down the business jet in the world was in 1994. The special plane of the Rwida President Habialimana and Burundi President Endarihara was shot down by an air -missile at the landmark of Kigali Airport in Rwanda.Destiny.The incident triggered a Luda Massacre who caused millions of people.
At present, there is no sufficient evidence to judge the cause of the crash of Pryigo's special plane.Witnesses said they heard two explosions before the plane fell.According to a video released by the Russian media, the special plane fell vertically at the last moment. The posture was sometimes upward, and sometimes dived, showing completely out of control, with smoke.Another video shows that some large parts fall off during the plane falling.
Judging from the sound in the video, the aircraft engine is still operating during the fall.In the crash scene, you can also see more complete engine components.Many analysts believe that this information is in line with the falling situation of the fuselage or wing damage and explosion, but it cannot exclude other possibilities.Even if there is an explosion, the explosion is from inside the aircraft or outside. It is unknown whether it is mechanical failure, artificial mistakes or intentional attacks.
Some sources said that the low -quality images of the shooting scene showed that there were holes formed after the missile exploded on the wreckage fragments.In January 2020, the Ukraine International Airlines PS752 was accidentally hit by the Iranian army, and a small hole was also found at the scene of the wreckage.At that time, the authoritative air -craft survey expert John Middot; Cowks was interviewed by China News Weekly, explaining the possibilities formed by this small hole:
If there is only a blurry picture, the small hole may be a trace of the fuselage fuselage after the engine non -inclusive damage failure; it may also be the traces of precise guidance of weapons or other weapons after hitting the aircraft; in addition, if the aircraft occurs internallyExplosion may also leave similar traces.
Cowks further pointed out that if a small hole comes from missiles, investigators should be able to find traces of explosive substances.In addition, analyzing the incident angles of these small holes on the spot will be able to judge whether they come from the same origin to judge the cause of the small hole.
Cowks also introduced that when the missile hit the aircraft, the specific hit part depends on the type of the missile.If it is the Heat Seeking Missile, it will fly to the engine.If it is Radar Guided, it will explode after approaching the target. This impact point is random and unpredictable.
This time, the air crash is different from the PS752 flights. The 600 business aircraft of the Laigsea is smaller than the Boeing 737-800 passenger aircraft of PS752 flight PS752.Some Russian media pointed out that if 70 kg of medium -to -long -range air defense missiles hit this business jet, it will cause more severe damage to hellip; hellip; the fuselage is unlikely to fall to the ground.
On the other hand, this air crash is also different from the aircraft in the 1994 President of Rwanda.At that time, the President of Rwanda was shot down during the process of landing at Kigali Airport.This time, according to data from the professional website Flightradar24, Perigen has climbed to 8000 meters high before falling, and light portable air defense weapons cannot reach this height.
As of the afternoon of August 24th, the only thing that could be confirmed was that before 18:99 on August 23, all flight data of Poligon's special plane was normal until it suddenly fell more than 2400 meters in 30 seconds.Subsequently, the communication between the aircraft and the ground was completely interrupted, and the witnesses saw it rushing to the ground with smoke.
A limited impact on the Russian and Ukraine situation
The Laigsea 600 is a global mainstream business jet based on the transformation of Papa Airlines Industrial Star Product ERJ135.The entire ERJ series models have produced more than 1,200 since the first flight in 1995. Until the accident before the accident, there was no air crash that caused people on board.
Information from Airfleets Aviation Professional Website shows that the crashed 600 official aircraft is 16 years old, and in 2007, it was delivered to Links Airlines, the largest business machine company in the Balkans.After Links Airlines announced bankruptcy in 2014, the aircraft was transferred to European official aircraft companies to continue the service until the first registration of private planes in January 2017.
Since then, the aircraft has become a special plane for Porigo.In the meantime, the aircraft was once registered under the Ortulex Transportation Company. Small airlines in Seychelles in the nominal name have been sanctioned by the U.S. government because of Pryigo's overseas assets.On January 10, 2019, the aircraft was re-registered as a private jet, with a registered number RA-02795, and nationality Russia.The Russian Federal Aviation Administration said the aircraft is currently a Moscow official machine company called Moscow, which is also sanctioned by the US government.
On June 27, after the failure of the rebellion, Porigon was in the military airport of Minusk, Belarus, to take the plane and began his career in exile.Since then, with Putin and Pleigo's approach to reconciliation, the aircraft has been equipped with high -level Wagner organizations including Pleigon, and traveled to Russia and Belarus.Some sources of the Moscow government revealed to the media that the last time Pricig came to Moscow to meet with officials of the Moscow government to discuss the issue of food supply.
In the last flight of the plane, in addition to the founder of Vagna organizer Porigon and military leader Utkin, there are also Waries, which haveMiddot; Checarov, he is mainly responsible for Wagner's business affairs.The other four members, the youngest is only 31 years old.There are Russian media who willThe members of the guards called Pritigen.
It is worth noting that the list of staff on board does not include Troshev, the leader of the Wagner organization codenamed white hair.Putin has publicly stated that white hair is the actual commander of the Wagner organization.
After the failure of the rebellion in the organization of Wagner, Koltinov and a number of mercenary practitioners believed that the Russian army would transform this team, and the incident had limited impact on the front line of Russia and Ukraine.In an interview with China News Weekly on the 24th, Coultinov still maintained this view.He pointed out that most members of the Wagner organizations who are willing to serve in Russia have signed a new contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense.However, he also believes that Pryigon's death may have a greater impact on Overseas activities organized by Wagner.
The problem may appear in Africa, because Pryigon is a key negotiator (Russia in) Africa, and a leading figure who deal with local partners. It is not easy to find a suitable substitute.Cordinov said.
In addition to the members of the Wagner organization, the three crew members were also killed in the accident.Tsargrad TV said they had worked for Porigen for several months.Among them, 51 -year -old Captain Lefxin is a senior pilot with a pair of children and wives.His family told local TV stations that Lefxin often traveled, but returned to reunite with his family almost every month.
The 39 -year -old stewardess Christina Middot; Raspoba is the only woman on the plane.Some Russian media said she was the sister of a local prosecutor.She has shared the inner cabin of the business jet on social media. In the photo, you can see the solid wood tables and leather seats decorated with flowers.
On the afternoon of August 23, Shortly before the plane took off, Laspoba shared a photo of a cafe at the Moscow Airport.She told her family that her flight was delayed due to unknown reasons.
