There is no doubt that we live in the turbulent era.But is our time never seen before?There are competition in any sovereign state system. Unfortunately, competition often evolves into conflict.The changes in the concept and technology of war made the 20th century bloody.The competition between the Ukrainian war and the United States and China is in line with the long -term national behavior model.The uncertainty they trigger is what the former US Minister of Defense Ramsfield said "Known UNKNOWNS".

In the first 10 years after Singapore's independence, the conflict between the region and the world's major countries continued to conflict and the situation was turbulent.In 1965, when Konfrontasi was unfolding against Malaysia and Singapore, Indonesia was blamed on the Indonesian Communist Party, which was closer to China for a losing coup, and fell into a internal and ideological color internal and ideological colors.Blood conflict.In 1969, racial riots broke out in Malaysia.The first five member states of Asan were facing the communist rebellion supported by China, and the Cold War was in full swing in this area.

In 1965, the United States dispatched ground troops to bomb Hanoi and sea defense, which upgraded the Vietnam War.But 10 years later, the United States was forced to withdraw troops, and the entire Indian branch fell into the hands of the Communist Party.India and Pakistan broke out in 1965 and 1971; shortly before that, in 1962, China attacked and defeated India in Himalayas.In 1967 and 1973, Israel fought two wars with almost the entire Arab world and achieved victory.In 1969, the dispute between China and the Soviet Union evolved into the border conflict between Siberia and Xinjiang.China is swallowed by the revolutionary enthusiasm of the Cultural Revolution, and the United States is trapped by the seriousness, sometimes, or even violent political, social, and cultural divisions of Vietnamese war and civil rights; there are similar tensions in Japan and Europe.The United States and the Soviet Union confrontation is covered by all these, and the many conflicts of the Third World.Just in 1962, the Cuban missile crisis caused by this confrontation pushed the world to the edge of the end of the nuclear.

When Singapore is forced to be independent, the external environment is bad, and the domestic situation is not optimistic.The confrontation between the new hostel and the Malaysian seal cut off our connection with the traditional hinterland; the unemployment rate was about 9%; just as our economy was in a precarious situation, the British announced the withdrawal in 1968.This may endanger one -five -fifth of our GDP (GNP) and tens of thousands of jobs.

However, we not only survived, but also prosperous.When the competition with a periodic cycle is temporary, we should keep in mind the three key factors of our history: correct cognition, believing that we have the importance of autonomy and politics.I will elaborate one by one.

Correct cognition

It is very important that we must face uncertainty calmly. To do this, we must take the incident correctly, neither dilute or exaggerate the importance, and look at them in combination with specific conditions.We usually pay too much attention to the incident itself, but do not pay enough attention to the process related to the incident.Therefore, we should understand and respond according to the situation of the incident itself, instead of projecting our hope or fear on them.

I have previously emphasized that competition and conflict are the inherent characteristics of international relations.From the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989 to approximately the global financial crisis in 2008, it caused people to generally disappoint the globalization of the United States, but it was only short and special in history about 20 years.But this strict reality is covered by the overwhelming advantage of the American strength.Even so, the former Yugoslav and Rwanda still had unmanned racial extinction conflicts, and the United States invaded Iraq and Afghanistan.

Mixing special circumstances with normal situation is a dangerous error.Those countries that do this and naively use the so -called "peace bones" in the short -term and special period will now regret their decisions.Although the conditions of this special period are conducive to the interests of Singapore, this does not make them less special or copied.We have now returned to international relations in a relatively normal period in history, and we must deal with problems with our world.

To do this, we are required to promote the balance of major powers in the region and maintain a strong deterrent ability in this balance.We have no actual feasible alternative options.Balance is a necessary condition to achieve almost all other values in international relations.The effective operations, regional integration, and economic development of international law, international organizations, and Asian'an, etc. all need stable power balance.

The Ukrainian war highlights Singapore's knowledge that has always been clear and never deserved:

The United States plays an irreplaceable role in maintaining regional balance.Other countries in Southeast Asia, especially our neighbors, have recently believed that this attitude of Singaporeans is a bit abnormal.In 1990, after the domestic political and natural disasters in the Philippines forced the US military to withdraw from the Subick Bay and Clark Air Force Base, we signed a memorandum of understanding with the United States to allow the US military to use some of our facilities.Our neighbors responded hysterically and tried to force us to give up this decision.However, when we renewed the Memorandum of Lifting with the United States in 2019 and the strategic framework agreement for defense cooperation between the two parties in 2005, we did not hear any opposition.

Due to various domestic politics reasons, other Southeast Asian countries are limited in terms of defense cooperation with the United States, or at least when they talk about what they do.I don't want to push this too far, but in this regard, Singapore has now been considered a public product in the region to keep everything in Southeast Asia.

Other Southeast Asian countries, or at least their troops are doing their best to strengthen the relationship with the United States and the United States in Japan and Australia in the region.Vietnam has significantly improved its defense relationship with the United States.It is worth noting that the Indonesian National Army sent troops to participate in the "Talisman Sabre" exercise in the United States and Australia; Germany, Britain, and Canada's major member states, as well as Japan and South Korea also participated in exercises.Earlier this year, the Indonesian National Army and the United States, the United States,, Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, held the largest "Super Garuda Shield" exercises in the history.The current government in the Philippines allows the U.S. military to use more important facilities, and even its anti -US predecessor government has strengthened its defense relationship with Japan.

This change is important because despite the irreplaceable role of the United States, no matter what the results of the US presidential election next year, we will face a more trading United States.It will put forward more requirements for allies, partners and friends, which may be as rough as the Trump administration period, or it may be more polite and negotiated like the re -elected Biden government.But no matter what the situation, this fact will not change.

After the Cold War, the United States will not bear any responsibilities alone, or pay for the price to maintain international order.It is meaningless to expect the United States to take the actions that it is no longer ready.However, it is absolutely important that Singapore and Southeast Asia -through the Asian'an or countries, we must determine how we are preparing to cooperate with the United States after the Cold War to maintain the balance of this region.Of course, we must also cooperate with China and other great powers.

The same is true in the economic field.Complaining that the United States no longer actively treats multilateral trade liberalization is completely meaningless.Domestic trade politics has changed, and it will not have any effect on the current government's chattering; more useful approach is to study how to strengthen bilateral economic ties with the United States.For most countries in the region, the United States is still the most important bilateral economic partner. It is an important source of high -quality investment and high -tech, even if it is no longer the largest trading partner.

Being autonomy

Singapore should not exist.

Seven years after the division of Xinma, a British scholar predicted in a book in Singapore, Southeast Asia published in 1972: "... the future of the city of Singapore will largely decide by the incidents that occur in the" village "around the Malaysian world.Fixed ... Singapore's tragedy lies not only in the future in the near future, but if it really happens, it will threaten Singapore's survival in Southeast Asia. "

Considering the internal and external environment of our independence, the scholar's evaluation is not completely far -fetched.The place where he is wrong is that he believes that our destiny will be determined by the external environment, and we "... except waiting, no other law", that is, we have no autonomy.

Everything you see on this island is the most powerful evidence, proves that a small country in the worst environment is by no means completely without autonomy;Courage and skills to seize opportunities.The famous saying of Xiu Xidid: "The Strong Do what they can and the weak suffer what they must be more than understanding.In my opinion, this is rough realism, and rough realism is often not very realistic.In fact, it is not so much realism as a fatalism, which is a very different concept, which is fatal for small countries.

In response to the competition of the current reappearance of the current cycle, it is particularly important to do not succumb to the fate theory opposite to autonomy.Both the United States and China say that they do not want to make them choose between them.But in fact, they really want to make countries choose.Whether it is the universal nature of Western -style democracy and the interpretation of political rights in the West, or the inevitability of China's rise and the definition of "all Chinese" ("Chinese" are racial or cultural, not nationality)The necessity of chairman Xi Jinping's "Chinese Dream", the psychological competition between the two countries is to impose the wrong choice to us to instill the theory of fate.

I suspect that the universal concept of the West is only attractive to a small part of Singaporeans.But three -quarters of Singapore's population is Chinese, which constitutes a very different challenge.In my opinion, the people of all ethnic groups in Singapore have supported the diversified racism of Singapore's foundation since 1965.However, the values of a country with only 58 years of history (in the history of a country) are still plastic, and it is easy to confuse cultural sympathy with national interests.In April this year, he warned in an important speech in Congress.

It is important to understand that competition in the United States and China is complicated, unlike the binary opposition as the early US -Soviet competition.For this, I have explained many times and won't repeat them.I just want to say that the United States and China will start fierce competition in a single global system, and they are an irreplaceable important part in this system.Their goal may be to dominate this system, but it is not impossible to allow one of them to replace the existing system with their own system.It is unlikely to work whether it is the Western diversified strategy or China's self -sufficient strategy; even if it can, it only works.Western arguments have shifted from "decoupling" to more targeted "risks" and China's "dual -cycle" slogan, all of which have acknowledged this reality.

Simply attribute the competition in the United States and China to "Democratic Episode", or simplifies that China has found a unique road that does not have to be "Westernization" and can realize modernization, which will not reduce complexity."Democracy" and "autocracy" have the same variants. All modern industrial society is the result of Western inspiration. The difference is just the US and European models or Soviet -Russian models.Therefore, modernization is always accompanied by the westernization of spelling with a lowercase letter "W" instead of the uppercase letter "W", because no matter what mode, it is necessary to adapt to local conditions.Only in all countries are uniquely adjusted, China is unique.

Rejecting simplified Western narrative does not mean that we have to accept the same simplified Chinese narrative.When we say we don't want to choose, what we really mean is that we will make choices based on our own interests.Some Singaporeans seem to think that not choosing is to keep low -key and listen to the destiny.In the 1960s and 1970s, Laos and Cambodia first adopted this passive strategy.Later, when this strategy was not used, they suddenly alliance with the United States.Passive and alliance sacrificed autonomy, leading to a very tragic end.Facing complex situations, avoiding such errors and actively exercising autonomy can bring greater opportunities.

The primary status of politics

In our first 10 years, that is, from 1965 to 1975, there were 33 countries independent, of which 19 countries were under some form of British rule.Except for the Gulf countries with rich oil resources and several Caribbean countries, none of the countries can be called today, the only exception is Singapore.The key factor is political leadership.Many former British territories have higher education and leaders with higher education and excellent political skills. They successfully led the people to independence, and they are often very difficult.But most of them failed to pass more severe governance tests.

This is not to say that Singapore's independence road is smooth.Modern Singapore rose from the complex environment after World War II in the 1950s and 1960s.At that time, the opposition between the colonization and the opposition between the Cold War was intertwined. In this intricate process, we strived to merge and finalize the united front line with the support of the Chinese government, as well as the political of Malay and Chinese sandwrights.The struggle is entangled.

The first generation of Singapore's leaders is a rare combination of natural politicians and technical bureaucrats. They can not only win political struggles, but also govern the country.Their political victory sometimes won very thrilling.However, due to their political success, the second and third -generation successors were placed on the political ability of technical bureaucrats at this century.

Like the 1950s and the 1960s, domestic politics has become important again because of the strategic environment we are facing now.The strategic competition in the United States and China makes Singapore face fundamental, even in terms of national identity, values and social cohesion.In order to cope with these challenges in the increasingly complicated domestic political environment, our fourth -generation leaders must become more like our first generation of leaders and integrate political skills with technical bureaucratic capabilities.

What I said correctly treats events and exercise autonomy, it should not be a foreign policy issue processed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.Fundamentally, these are all domestic political issues, which is very important for the future of Singapore and cannot be handled by diplomats.

In the 1950s and 1960s, our leaders were convincing to determine basic problems and the vital interests of ordinary Singaporeans, and won their support.This has once again become a vital political task.I have previously mentioned Shen Ying's speech in April this year.I also please note that Premier Li Xianlong gave a speech by Chinese at the National Day Mass Conference in 2022.But this is not a challenge that can be clearly solved.This is what I call the "grass -cutting machine problem": you must keep trimming the lawn because the grass will keep growing.This is not a struggle that can win by several speeches from senior leaders.These speeches set the framework.However, this struggle must continue at the grassroots level because this is the problem, including some grassroots leaders.

We have no reason to fail.In fact, we have more conditions than any other country, because the DAP is the only non -communist party that has joined the unified line supported by the mainland government and won.As far as I know, no other country in the world can do this, and the abilities we have at that time are far less than Singapore today.

In order to avoid everyone thinks that I am too optimisticLet me end with some advice.Historically, small urban countries generally do not exist for a long time.The Republic of Venice is an exception.From the 7th century to the 18th century, Venice has existed for more than 1,000 years.But it eventually declined and failed.

The reason why Venice failed was complicated, but C. P. Snow delivered the most incisive summary of the root causes at the University of Cambridge at the University of Cambridge in 1959.When Snow discussed the issue of Britain in the middle of the 20th century, he compared it with Venice in the last half century.He said, "Like us, they were very lucky. They were unexpectedly wealthy, like us. Like us, they mastered superb political skills. Many of them were patriotic people with strong will and seeking truth from facts.As you know as clearly as us, the torrent of history has begun to be unfavorable to them. Many of them are thinking about ways to continue. This means to break the model they have formed.The model is the same. They have never found the will to break it. "

History has never been completely similar.I don't think the torrent of history is not good for Singapore.On the contrary, we are fortunate to be in a vibrant area.In 1959, Britain was already a exhausted country, and we were young.Unlike Britain in 1959, we do not miss the glory of the past, whether imagined or real.Although our leaders may not be a civil servant or ordinary people, we clearly realize that it is necessary to break this model and adhere to the basic principles.

However, from Snow's analysis of Venice's failure, we can still learn some lessons.Snow tells us that failure is not necessarily the consequences of catastrophic events, amazing disasters or severe errors.Failure is likely to be, perhaps more often, the consequences of inertia or complacent: failure may be gradually, almost incompetent, small, individual, unrelated decisions that have not made cumulative results and delayed decisions, delayed decisions, and delayed decisions.Or to avoid making difficult decisions to make easy choices.The world is often not in a loud noise, but to the end in the tired sigh.

The author is the director of the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore and the former Secretary of Foreign Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs

This article is his speech on August 14, the "Lee Kuan Yew Memorial Forum -Re -Creating Destiny"

Golden Shun Translation