As the nomination ended successfully, the six states elections in Malaysia have officially started.However, although 570 candidates competed for 245 seats in Selangor, Penang, Samimala, Kedah, Dengjialou, and Jilandan, so far, the people's response is still quite quiet.It is also difficult to heat the atmosphere of the election campaign. The people who attended the Pakatan Harapan, Barisan Nasional and the National League of Political Lecture were also too small, making it difficult for public opinion to grasp the political trends.Of course, this is not the first situation in the Malaysian election, because in the early stages of the election of the election last year, the reaction was also the same.
Therefore, those who are theory are worried that this Liuzhou election may usher in an ultra -low voting rate, and the low voting rate will not only affect the Pakatan Harapan regime in governing snow, Penang, and Senmori.The national alliance regime of impacting Ji, Deng, and Danzhou, due to the sharp decrease in votes caused by the low voting rate, will greatly affect the camps with high chances of winning, and then add "unexpected defeat" variables to them.However, the experience of elections in 2018 and 2022 tells us that this coldness of the election may sometimes not be because of the low willingness to vote, but still watching, especially Malay voters. They generally do not want to show themselves too earlyThe tendency of voting.
Of course, the reason why voters are cautious are because this election will not only determine the ownership of the Six State regime, but also determine the federal government led by Anwar to the stability of the regime in the next three years.If the Pakatan Harapan and the Barisan Nasional will still be unobstructed to the growth of the "green wave" of the National League, after the six states elections, UMNO Chairman Ahmad Zahi will soon encounter the forced palace of the Nations Alliance in the party.UMNO and the Pakatan Harapan have changed at the federal government level.
The deadlock must be resolved before the head of state
If the situation really develops in this direction, when Malaysia once again fell into a political deadlock in last year, the 16th election may be held early because the head of state will be changed this year.Before he stepped down in December, he resolved this political deadlock made by the UMNO party as soon as possible.Therefore, in addition to the caution of voters, the Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional are also extremely anxious about it.Although the situation of the National Alliance has been seen by public opinion, it actually has the pressure to verify that UMNO has lost its representativeness, especially the Turkish Party.If Malay votes return to the UMNO after the state is elected, the survival value of the Turkish Party will be greatly weakened.
This election is closely related, but voters are watching and looking at it. Does it mean that the probability of winning and defeat is half?Theoretically, the Pakatan Harapan has a high chance of winning in the original governing snow and Penang.These two states have a high degree of industrialization. Among the Chinese constituency, the majority of state seats in the Chinese constituency, 11 cities in Selangor (and two semi -urban and rural seats), 15 urban states in Penang (He and 7 urban and rural states in Wewei ProvinceSquares) are all Pakatan Harapan ticket warehouses; in addition, some Malaysian constituencies in Selangor, such as Brother Best Sakaro, Shuangxi Duya, Srisen and other states, are also Pakatani Fortress.Therefore, the Pakatan Harapan will continue to rule Snow Penalty.
As for Senzhou, according to the data of the last election, the Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional are not in power, because according to the analysis of the election voting box, the 16 state seats in Senzhou support the Barisan Nasional (17 seats in the Pakatan Harapan)And the national alliance only received the support of the three district voters.Coupled with the Democratic Party Secretary -General Lu Zhaofu and the Acting Chairman of the UMNO Mohashan, Mohashan is also running here, so the Senzhou election seems to be the most stable in the three states of the Pakatan Harapan.
Of course, the most stable one may often be the most dangerous, because if the process is lost in the state of the core leader of the unity government, the impact of its impact on the united government will defeat the Selangor of Selangor with the Pakatan Harapan.equal.
As far as the whole is concerned, there is no problem with the Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional to continue the three states of the Snow Penang Sen. The problem is that they are not just governing, but the advantages of three -in -one.The victory of the two is not decent for the Pakatan Harapan, because the Pakatan Harapan used to govern with more than one -third of the advantage in Snow Penalty in the past.As for Senzhou, it is used to verify that the Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional Alliance can achieve the effect of 1+1 equal to 2.Because of the results of the voting box in the previous election, theoretically this alliance can easily form a strong government in Senzhou. If this result cannot be achieved, it will be considered a loss.
Because the threshold of united government "weakening the green tide" increased to three -pointers, the power of the National League in these states still has room for growth.There is a basic disk with the inland area of the west.The united government's original victory of Tamkang, Bermaden, neo -Mao, and Goose Stegia, are currently in a hard work; some Chinese constituencies such as Pengzhuang have also been weakened because of changes in voters.This means that in the case of the vague wind direction of Malay voters, the National League has the opportunity to win about 14 seats.As for Penang, the National League in the prestige of 10 Malay in the Western province has also been regarded as a high decision.
As for the state of the State Alliance, that is, Ji, Deng, and Dan, there is no anti -wind in terms of the current concern. In addition, Kedah guards the state minister of the state, Sa Nuoxi, which is welcomed by local Malay voters, so the National League, so the National LeagueThere is no suspense to continue the three states of governance.What's more, the basic disk of the Pakatan Harapan in Gaden Dan is very small, and UMNO currently lacks the charm leader similar to Donggu Lasari on the East Coast.EssenceThey want to administer Gaden Dan. In the next week, whether the National Alliance will make strategic errors, causing voters to resent and blow off winds.But this probability is very small.
The author is a commentator of the Malaysian current affairs, the Journalism and Political Scholar of Raman University
