Source: Voice of the United States

Author: Xue Xiaoshan

The latest research report released by the Research Institutions of College of William and Mary, the latest research report released by Aiddata predicts eight places that are most likely to build in the Chinese overseas navy base in the next 2-5 years.They are: Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Bata in the equator, Gwadar in Pakistan, Kuribi (Ream) of Cameron, Curon's Kribi, Cambodia's REAM, and Vanuatu.Luganville, Nacala's Nacala, and Nouakchott in Maurita.

The report collects ports and infrastructure construction projects that have funds provided funds from low -income and middle -income countries from 2000 to 2021 to low -income and middle -income countries.The total value of 123 seaport projects reached 29.9 billion US dollars.

In addition to the investment level, other measurement standards considers in this study also include strategic location, port scale and depth of water, the relationship between Beijing and potential host countries (such as voting consistency in the UN General Assembly, etc.)Analysis of space surveying and mapping technology.

The first author of the report, Alexander Wooley, the cooperation and communication director of the "Assistance Data" project, told the Voice of America, "It can show the global nature of China's global port financing and construction projects.This global dataset enables us to have a bird's eye -catching vision. We think about whether the future and overseas naval bases are set up from the perspective of Beijing in this project."

In surprising, China invests in "amazing" in West Africa ports

According to the data of Aiddata, Hangban Tota in Sri Lanka is the preferred place for China's future overseas bases.This is the largest port investment in China's $ 2.19 billion, and Beijing directly controls the facility.Of the first eight candidates, there are four in Africa, which is closely related to the "Belt and Road".

Woodley pointed out that "what surprises us is the density of ports in West Africa and China Africa. We expected the ports in the coast of the Indian Ocean, which is also a clear priority of China. But we did not expect that China in the Atlantic OceanThere will be such a degree of investment in the region. "

Woodley and another author of the report, "Assistance Data" researcher Zhang Sheng (transliteration), wrote in Foreign Policy on July 27 that more than half of the candidate place is indeed related to the Indo -Pacific regionEssenceFor China, it is always a priority in the Western Pacific crowding or copying the United States. It is also an important goal to challenge the status of "Quad) countries such as the United States and India in the Indian Ocean.

On the other hand, Chinese port operators are more active than in the Indian Ocean on the African Atlantic.Bypassing West Africa from Mauritania to the south, passing the Gulf of Guinea, reaching Cameroon, Angola and Gabon, China was building ports all the way.The report believes that this will be a bold move for a Chinese navy that only learned to carry out tasks in the distant waters 15 years ago (such as anti -pirate operations in the Gulf of Aden) in West Africa or China Africa.

"The base located in the Atlantic Ocean will relative to the Chinese Navy close to Europe, the Strait of Gibraltar, and an important cross -Atlantic route, but this transition to the Atlantic is contrary to the status quo." Wali said.

He is worried that because the United States has been focusing on the Indo -Pacific region in recent years, including the establishment of AUKUS AUKUS, the establishment of Australian British and American three sides, it has strengthened the logistics contact with India, returned to the Philippines and Solomon Islands, and deepened the defense with Papua New Guinea.Cooperation, "The establishment of a base for the Chinese Navy in the Atlantic Ocean will disrupt the naval plans of the United States and Europe, forcing the planners to return to the starting stage."

General Richard: China may set up a base in the Western Hemisphere

In the "backyard" in the United States, about 20 countries participated in the "Belt and Road" project.Aiddata's research mentioned that China has strongly invested in ports and infrastructure in Cuba, Venezuela, Antigua and Babuda, Brazil, Panama Canal.

Commander and Army of the Southern Command of the United States and the Army Laura Richardson on August 4th at the August 4th CSIS of the Washington Think Tank International Strategy Research Center (CSIS) answered questions from VOA reporters in the future that China will have the future in China.Maybe a military base in the Western Hemisphere.

She pointed out that taking deep water port as an example, there are five Chinese state -owned enterprises along the Panama Canal. China can use it for dual use, not only civilian use, but also military use.

"Why do this investment in this area with the greatest increase in conventional nuclear forces in mainland China? I am very worried about this. What does the Panama Canal mean for the global economy?" She asked.

Richardson said that another strategic lane involved in the Southern Command of the United States is the Magellan Strait, and China also builds capacity in this waterway and the area along the route.

"I am worried that China will use its military purposes. There is no Chinese base in the Western Hemisphere, but I think that through all key infrastructure investment through the" Belt and Road ", China may establish a base one day."She said.

In the middle of this century, will China's overseas bases overtake the United States?

At present, the United States has about 750 military bases in 80 countries and regions around the world.China's only overseas naval base is located on the Djibouti Republic on the northeast coast of Africa.

The US Think Tank Land Company issued a report last December that if China is determined, the global base network can be developed in the next 20 years.

The research report of

Aiddata states that China dominates commercial sea areas. It is one of the top three manufacturers of new buildings each year and has the world's second largest tradder fleet.Seven of the ten most busiest civil ports in the world are located in China.China also has about 17,000 overseas fishing vessels, and has built most of the world's commercial shoreline infrastructure, including 96 % of freight containers and more than 80 % of port cranes.

Studies have pointed out that Chinese maritime assets have the characteristics of military and civilian use. They are overtaken the United States in terms of projection capacity to build various supply ships at the speed of building warships.Both will promote Beijing to list overseas bases as more priority.

In addition, by 2030, China may have as many as five large aircraft carriers. This will be an expensive investment. Its goal is obviously to carry out sustainable overseas maritime operations, so that the Chinese Navy will be positive with the US Navy and other positives.Fight.

"In the short term, China is unlikely to set up bases in all eight locations. But we may see the gradual increase of the number of bases. First, we are in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific region, and then the Atlantic Ocean, which may be expanded to more.Far areas. "Woodley, one of the authors of the report.

Holms: Chinese overseas bases are worthy of vigilance but not feared

James R. Holmes, a professor of marine strategy at the American Navy School of War, told the Voice of the United States that for more than ten years, the navy industry has been arguing whether China is forming the "String of Pearls"), That is, the naval base (the "Pearl Chain" strategy was first by Bosi, the United States BosieLun Consultant proposed in 2004).

"If Beijing chooses to put this strategy, then contact with coastal countries has created the choice of building a naval base for China. China hopes to become a global maritime power in the middle of this century. China has studied Mahan (ChinaWe are working hard to complete the third and achieve the goal of its maritime hegemony. "

Holms pointed out that if China has built bases in the eight ports mentioned above, it will expand its footprints in the Indian Ocean, including important channels to the Persian Gulf, and extend to the Atlantic Ocean, but if there is a day of war, these basesThe wartime function may be limited.

"When China's debt trap has become more and more obvious, I suspect that any coastal country will allow the PLA navy to build a complete naval base such as Yokosuka or Sako Shibao for war. China has no potential host country. ThisIt means that it will not have the freedom like the United States enjoyed in Japan in the 19450s. My guess is that any Chinese base will be more rude than the existing bases of Djibati. "

Aiddata's Wuli suggested that the United States and the West do not have to excessively react to China to open overseas bases in order to prevent China from using it as an excuse for further expansion.

"Each situation should be evaluated based on its own advantages," he said. "China has been in the past 20 years in Africa, South Pacific, and Latin America to make patient investment and investment and investment and less attention from the WestEstablishing a relationship. Now that the West has begun to catch up, but China has already taken advantage of the great opportunity. "