In the financial market, visible hands and invisible hands are playing fiercely.This is even more obvious in the financial turmoil and the financial crisis.On March 10, the US California Financial Protection and Innovation Bureau announced that it had taken over Silicon Valley Bank in accordance with the law and assigned US federal deposit insurance companies to perform liquidation management because Silicon Valley Bank's liquidity and capacity were insufficient.This is since September 2008, the largest bank closure incident in the United States has caused high alertness in the financial community in the United States and the world in the world, and the turbulence of the financial market has continued to intensify.

1. The visible hands are busy.

The financial crisis in the United States and Europe has many similarities with the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the US financial crisis in 2008.In 1997, I was engaged in international financial research at the Asia -Pacific Research Center of Waseda University. In 2008, I taught at the University of Studies at the University of Studies. Now I returned to my hometown and worked at the World Economic Research Institute of Anhui Academy of Social Sciences.The relatively leisurely life allows me to have more time to think about the sensitive problems of the financial market, and find that the visible hands are busy.

The reason for the closure of Silicon Valley Bank is caused by the Fed's radical interest rate hike from a macro level.The Fed's radical interest rate hikes led to a decline in bond prices, the deposits of commercial banks were lost too fast, and the cost of financing increased.In order to suppress inflation, the Fed continuously increases the interest rate of federal funds and reduces the size of the balance sheet.On March 16 last year, the Fed implemented the first interest rate hike in the rate hike cycle, and then raised the benchmark interest rate to 4.5%for seven consecutive times, which was the fastest growth rate since the 1980s.

The Fed's busy interest rate hike is mainly because the inflation of the United States has continued to rise in the past two years.The inflation rate announced in March was more than 6%, and more than two times the goal of 2%set by the Federal Reserve.Therefore, Nomura Securities estimates that the Fed will cut interest rates immediately. Many financial institutions speculate that the Fed may not raise interest rates. They all think that Silicon Valley banks have closed down financial issues, which can abduct the Fed's decision -making.As everyone knows, this visible hand is mainly to control the inflation rate.The reason why the inflation rate in the United States is so high is to cut interest rates before the Fed before, large water release, and implement super loose monetary policy, which has a direct relationship between the flood of the US dollar.This kind of relaxation, one -one -receiving market operation, financial institutions and investors are visible.How to deal with it is the management of the management of institutions such as Silicon Valley.

The pace of interest rate hikes in the Federation this year was fierce and urgent, but the effect of inflation in the United States was not satisfactory.The sudden stability risk of the banking system and the deepening of the risk of economic recession have made the Fed's more difficult.

Next, look at the U.S. government's visible hand.

Government guarantee stabilize confidence

Silicon Valley Bank closed two days after the closure of the bank, and the marked bank also closed down.Bank stocks in the United States, especially some small and medium -sized bank stock prices, have plummeted, and they have gone with Silicon Valley Bank.Some institutions have listed more than 10 such banks, and they also said that more than 100 banks were in danger.Federal deposit insurance companies have previously warned that the current interest rate environment may have serious consequences on the banking industry. Financial institutions such as commercial banks in the United States may face about $ 620 billion (about S $ 833.7 billion) due to sales or holding a variety of financial products.Loss.If the squeezing trend spreads, many small and medium -sized banks and even large banks fail, and the loss will be huge.Therefore, the U.S. government responded urgently.

The US Finance Minister Yellen convened the heads of the Federal Reserve and Federal deposit insurance companies to meet on March 10 to discuss related arrangements after the closure of Silicon Valley Bank.The federal deposit insurance company said on the same day that in order to protect the insured deposits, a special institution has set up a special institution to receive the deposit that has been insured by the Silicon Valley, and will allow the insured to withdraw the deposit by the morning of March 13.For unpaid depositors, federal deposit insurance companies will distribute dividends as compensation.This measure is better, because when a large depositor is worried that the deposit cannot be taken out or suffered losses, the federal deposit insurance company is not constrained by the upper limit of the $ 250,000 of the depositor, but a full protection.This helps stabilize the confidence of the depositor and the credit of the bank.

On March 13, US President Biden delivered a speech to ensure that users and small enterprises with deposits in Silicon Valley Bank and the bank will be protected, and their savings or deserved assets will be obtained.He also said that the management of the two banks will be fired, and investors in banks should have been prepared to be risky and will not be protected by the government.This shows that depositors can rest assured that investors must bear their own risks.

In fact, if you can protect the deposit in full, you can curb the crowding trend. Bank credit will not go bankrupt, and the bank's stock price will not fall.The U.S. government immediately announced that the protection of the depositor has played a positive effect on the stable financial market.Otherwise, the tide of extrusion is more than that, and more banks in the United States will be forced to close.

Compared with the Corresponding to the US government before and after the closure of the fourth largest bank in the United States in 2008, this time, the effect is good.Although there are various criticisms, they can temporarily stabilize the financial market and solve various problems in a graphic. It is always better than letting the bank's family falling down, which is more beneficial to the market.

Second, invisible hands have emerged hidden.

In the financial market, invisible hands are much more than visible hands.For example, from 1997 to 1998, the Asian financial crisis, some European and American speculative funds have speculated, and the short -term mechanism has taken advantage of the opportunity to make a profit.The currency of many countries in Asia has depreciated sharply, and the financial market has been severely damaged.Japan's blow is especially.At that time, the Japanese government was indecisive, resulting in bankruptcy of Japan's long -term credit banks, Japanese bond credit banks, and Trinity Securities, and the economy was seriously retreat.In the book of the Japanese financial crisis and financial reform, I analyzed many invisible hands.

This time the Silicon Valley bank closed down, and many of the invisible hands were involved.For example, Silicon Valley Bank CEO personally lobby the Senate in 2015, asking Congress to reduce the review of financial institutions and exempt a group of small and medium -sized financial institutions including Silicon Valley Bank.In 2018, Silicon Valley Bank's lobbying was successful. The US Congress raised the standard of determining systemic risks in the U.S. Congress. Silicon Valley Banks and Logo Bank were exempted from supervision.Silicon Valley Bank's senior management has an unprepared responsibility for failure, and some of their problems in business management will continue to be exposed in the future.

There are also invisible hands, such as speculative funds and short -term institutions.They are afraid that the world will not be chaotic. The more they have problems in financial institutions, the more they spread all kinds of right and wrong, the news of true and false, proliferation and amplification of all kinds of panic.International rating like Moody's rating will also take the opportunity to fall down.The first and banks in the United States are evident.

Due to the statement of the US government's strong protection of the depositors, the possibility of banks in US banks in various words is greatly reduced.Some invisible hands reached Europe again, which made Credit Suisse Bank at stricter.On March 19, UBS Group's effort to spare no effort in the Swiss government to announce the acquisition of Creditses to make it exempt from closure.

It may also be a counterattack on various invisible hands. On March 19, the Fed and the European Bank of China, the Bank of the United Kingdom, the Bank of Japan, the central bank of the Swiss, and the Bank of Canada announced a coordination operation to use the permanent US dollar liquidityIncrease liquidity supply for swap quotas.Starting from March 20, the frequency of the seven -day period to daily is changed until the end of April.

In the short term, the closure of Silicon Valley Bank may not cause the financial crisis in the United States and Europe.However, in the long run, the risk of economic recession in the United States and Europe still exists, and the potential risks of financial institutions cannot be underestimated, and the trend of de -US dollarization of the world is very obvious.Stocks, bonds and dollars and other currencies may cause new crisis, visibleHands and invisible hands will continue to play, it is necessary to keep vigilance.