"It (Russia) has entered the form of subordinates to China and lost the channel to enter the Baltic Sea."On May 14, French President Macron said in an interview: "This was unimaginable in just two years ago. So this is already a geopolitical failure."

This Russia -Ukraine War, Russia showed two characteristics.At the beginning of the war, it showed strong aggression.Whether the United States warned in advance or French and Germany's attempts to mediate from it, Moscow could not prevent Moscow from invading a sovereign country recognized by the international community.It is this strong aggression that makes Sweden and Finland finally choose to join NATO.

With the development of the war, Russia reflects the other side, the weakness of military strength.Russia's offensive Kiev's plan was completely failed, and he could not even seize Donbas. He finally played in Bachomut for 10 months, and it was still unable to completely overcome it.

Russian military frustration has made European policies more consistent on the one hand; on the other hand, all allies in Russia have begun to doubt the true strength of Moscow in the traditional sense of Russia.Beijing has not provided fatal weapons to Russia so far.In Macron's view, Russia has actually become a vassal of China.

Let's start with Finland in the west.A few months ago, when I was swimming in Florida, I met a Finnish who came to vacation. I asked him: "How many people in Finland support to join NATO before the war?" He told me that supporting and opposing people who joined the NATOAbout half of each.I asked again after the war was launched in Russia?He answered me, and most people support joining NATO.

From the perspective of ordinary Finns, it can be seen that Finland's biggest promoter to NATO is Russia itself.Finland and Sweden joined NATO, which extended the common boundary between NATO and Russia from 500 kilometers to more than 1,800 kilometers.According to the Russian President Putin's own, the launch of the Ukrainian war was to prevent NATO from the eastward expansion.It turns out that Putin's approach has just promoted NATO eastward expansion.

Russia's performance on the battlefield has also united the NATO countries.According to Kiev independent reports, at the beginning of the war, the Ukraine ambassador to Germany pointed out to reporters that the German Finance Minister refused to aid Ukraine because she believed that Ukraine would be captured by Russia within a few days without any help.

On May 13, Zelezzky visited Germany for the first time. German Prime Minister Tsutz opened a military assistance of 2.7 billion euros (about S $ 3.9 billion), including 20 weasel infantry chariots, 30 Leopard 1 main battle tanks, more than 100 armored vehicles, and four IRIS-T air defense systems.

It is not only Germany that changed the view of Ukraine. On May 13, Zerrenzki visited France at the same time.Macron said, "To be honest, Russia should not win the war." Macron also said that he would provide dozens of armored vehicles and other military assistance to Ukraine.

This treatment was completely unimaginable a year ago.

It is also unexpected that Beijing's attitude towards Moscow.Earlier this year, the US government claimed that Beijing was preparing to provide fatal weapons to help Russia.However, after the news broke, there was no evidence to prove that the mainland government provided fatal weapons to Russia.

In the past, it was a very normal thing for the mainland government to provide weapons and equipment to both sides of the war.We took the Iraqi War that occurred in the 1980s as an example. China also provided weapons and equipment to both Iraq and Iran in the war. The most famous is the Type 69 tank.Type 69 tank was actually produced by the T54 tank under the support of the Soviet Union. It first debuted in 1959.At the time, Iraq and Iran introduced a large number of Type 69 tanks.The number of Type 69 tanks in Iraq is more than 1,000 units.

Even after the Persian Gulf War and the Iraq war, the Iraqi military was still using this tank.Iran also introduced hundreds of 69 tanks.In addition to tanks, Iraq also introduced more than 100 J -7 fighters.At the same time, both Iran and Iraq have purchased a large number of shells from China to meet the needs of war.

China has experienced the experience of selling arms to the warriors in the past, and now has the industrial ability of large -scale arms to produce arms.However, according to existing information, China only exported fighter -related parts, drones and electronic components to Russia.Beijing is not provided in Beijing that Russia urgently need shells, tanks, and anti -tank weapons.Russia's allies Iran have provided hundreds of suicide drones, and even North Korea has provided ammunition to Russia.

At present, the Russian policy in Beijing is just increasing economic cooperation, and military support seems very cautious.According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China -Russia's trade volume increased by 29.3%in 2022, reaching a record 190.2 billion US dollars (about $ 254.1 billion).China has strengthened energy from Russia and natural gas, while China exports a large number of industrial products such as home appliances, automobiles and mobile phones to Russia.

From a geopolitical perspective, China's current approach is the result of careful consideration.More military aid may lead to the isolation and sanctions of the international community on the mainland governments, but it cannot bring more benefits to Beijing.With the withdrawal of European and American companies from the Russian market, a large number of Chinese companies enter the trend, they can obtain a large number of economic benefits.This is why Beijing insists on expanding economic cooperation, but has stopped in military support.The so -called Sino -Russian cooperation has no limit. In the face of interests, it is just a polite.

For Russia, which is currently isolated by the international community, there is no influence on Beijing's decision.Beijing's willingness to increase economic exchanges with Russia is already a great support for Russia.In Mark Long's eyes, China is already dominant in the diplomatic relations between China and Russia.This is probably the consensus of many diplomats.

In Central Asia, Russia's influence is also further reduced. Because of the tight war in Ukraine, Russia transferred the former garrison in Armenia back to China.Azerbaijan has a whistle station in the Larin Corridor, which was originally stationed by the Russian military guard forces.Obviously, Russia's influence on Central Asia is gradually declining, and even the situation that originally belonged to the Soviet franchisee cannot be controlled.

After the war in Ukraine, the world has a new understanding of Russia.Finland and Sweden have joined NATO; Western countries have more consistent policies in Ukraine; Russia's influence in Central Asia is getting smaller and smaller.In the eyes of many people, Russia even became a vassal of China.All this is probably not expected by Putin before launching the war.

The author of war theory Clausetitz said that war is the continuation of politics.In terms of geopolitics, Russia has lost, will the military failure be far away?

The author is an American software engineer, the host of the online military program