Source: Bloomberg

New signs of slowing down in the world economy, due to the weakening of the recovery of the Chinese economy in the post -epidemic era, and the fighter industry in Germany may drag this largest European economy into the recession.

At the same time, the elastic U.S. economy still faces the worst banking turmoil in the financial crisis in 2008, and the debt limit deadlock may lead to breach of contract.U.S. Financial Minister Yelun warned on Tuesday that the "time is not much" to avoid economic disasters.

The latest data shows that the key part of the global economic prospects is not as expected.China, where the epidemic prevention policy turns sharply, has lost its growth momentum after reopening, and the warm winter in Europe is not enough to revitalize the German industrial foundation.

"The growth of optimism at the beginning of this year has obviously made more realistic sense of reality. Simply speaking, it is disappointment." ING global macro director Carsten Brzeski said.It seems that the situation in the second half of this year will not improve. "

Bloomberg Economist:

"A series of good and bad economic data shows that the economy of China and European industrial power is unexpectedly softened, but the US economy shows toughness. Our view is that the bad news of China's recovery will continue for a while. Given the Fed's moreThe secondary interest rate hike, the bank closure caused the tightening of credit, and the risk brought by the negotiation of the upper limit of the Washington debt, the growth story of the United States may not be performed. "

-Tom Orlik, Chief Economist

Data released by China on Tuesday show that the growth rate of industrial added value, the total retail sales of social consumer goods and the investment growth of fixed assets are far lower than expected; the youth unemployment rate rose to a record high of 20.4%.

Hong Yan, chief economist of Sirui Group, said that these data confirmed that China's re -opening up did not boost global demand as many people had expected.The continuous weakness of the real estate industry and Chinese exporters' orders will not help boost market emotions.Hong Yan said that only the consumption situation in China can further reverse the situation.

Investors' confidence in Germany has declined for the third consecutive month, which once again triggers concerns about economic recession.In May, the German ZEW investor expects indicators to fall from 4.1 in April to -10.7, which is the first time since 2023 below zero.Even before that, the significant decline in the unexpectedly declined in German industry has caused concerns about the may be in the winter decline in the largest European economy.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered the expectations of global economic growth last month. It is expected that this year it will increase by 2.8%and increase by 3%in 2024.IMF warned on Tuesday that the upward adjustment of tight monetary policies and energy prices will cause the German economy to pressure.The IMF expects that the economy will "maintain a zero -growth level in 2023" and will gradually strengthen the next three years.

Although the US economy has not declined as expected (the growth of retail sales in April indicates that consumption expenditure is stable), anti -winds are forming.The closure of several regional banks in the United States makes it more difficult for small companies and residents to get credit.Economist surveys pointed out that the possibility of economic recession in the United States in the next 12 months is 65%.

MARK Zandi, chief economist, believes that if the world economy does slow, central banks from all countries can breathe.He said that in view of signs that the inflation has been seen, most of the central bank's tightening cycle is nearing its end, and the strong labor market and residential financial conditions will help provide support for growth.

"It will be a difficult year for the global economy." Zandi said, "But through some reasonable and good decisions of the central banks of various countries, it should be able to avoid recession."

Investors have been worried about the prospects. According to the latest investigation by the Bank of America, the fund manager's loser emotions have been the highest since this year.

The deduction of traders' betting on the economic slowdown will force central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to cut interest rates later this year.The exchange market is expected to reduce the benchmark interest rate by more than 50 basis points by the end of December, and the current interest rate is in the target range of 5%to 5.25%.

Brewin Dolphin Market Analysis Director Janet MUI said that there may be more pessimistic economic news in the future, and the manufacturer's warning pointed out that the pressure is still intensifying.

"Enterprise reports say that orders are slowing down." She said, "China's export growth slowdown can reflect global demand."