Zheng Liying: Can Erdogan continue to ＂take care of＂ Türkiye?

Source: China News Weekly

Author: Zheng Liying

On May 14, Turkish President Erdogan broke the convention and appeared in the capital Ankara.

According to tradition, Erdogan will vote in Istanbul, his birth city.When the final result came out, Erdogan flew to the capital to give a speech.

But this time, the election of the glutinous election seems to make Erdogan unable to wait quietly.For 20 years in Turkey, the 69 -year -old "political strong" is in an unprecedented challenge.

"The earthquake city will not be voted to him again"

Three months ago, a major earthquake occurred in southeastern Türkiye.The earthquake died at least 47,000 people in Turkey, and millions of people were displaced.On the second day of the earthquake, Erdogan publicly rebuked some people to respond to the poor earthquake.A few days later, he acknowledged that the government's rescue work was not fast enough and apologized publicly.

Fast, criticism of the government focuses on the issues of building standards.Since Erdogan and his leadership party, loose construction regulations have been the basis for promoting Erdogan's architecture.In the first 10 years of Erdogan's term, he used the construction industry as a symbol of economic growth arteries and Turkish progress.After the Great Earthquake, a large number of collapsed buildings and deaths became the public's complaints on the political strong man.

On the eve of the voting, more than 100 bus arrived in Antakia City, Antakia City, the severe disaster area of Turkey, and brought back residents who were displaced due to the earthquake to participate in the election voting.According to statistics, 11 provinces in the country have been damaged to varying degrees in the earthquake.

Not far away in the ruins, the media took a middle -aged man to spit in the direction of the Erdogan poster."I lost my wife, son, and two grandsons." He said: "I was a firm supporter of the party, but now I vomit him with water, not just me, many people do this now, the earthquake city will not do so.Put it to him again. "

"The loss caused by the earthquake is about 80 billion yuan, and more than 80 billion accounts for about 10%of the Turkish GDP." Niu New Year's Director of the Institute of Middle East of the Chinese Institute of Modern International Relations told China News Weekly that the economic situation in Turkey has fallen intoIn the case of difficulties, the earthquake residue will inevitably affect the election.

In recent years, the Turkish people have been facing the dual problems of inflation and currency depreciation."In 2019, when we went to Turkey to investigate, the US dollar's exchange rate against Turkey's lira was about 1 to 3, and now it has reached 1-5." Niu Newchun recalled.

At the same time, according to the official data of Turkey, the country's inflation rate soared to more than 85%last year, the highest level in the 25 years.Although the official data this year showed a drop of 44%, most people believed that the real data was much higher than this.

In the early days of Erdogan, through the establishment of an independent central bank, banks, and financial regulatory agencies, the public sector would privatize the public sector to implement economic reforms and achieve dazzling through infrastructure construction and the vigorous development of tourism industry.Economic results.

But in the past 10 years, the Turkish economy with high debt and high inflation has begun to go downhill.While raising interest rates in most other countries, only Erdogan continued to demand interest rate cuts to fight inflation.Western economists are confused about this, and this opposite practice has also become a feature of "Erdogan Economics".

In addition to being dissatisfied with economic issues, Erdogan has been constantly accused of expanding the power of president in recent years.In July 2018, Türkiye transitioned from parliamentary system to presidential system.The prime minister's position was abolished, the president was also the head of the government, the power of the president was expanded, and even the central bank, the state media and other institutions had an absolute influence.

Before the election voting, the Turkish national media played a complete presidential campaign speech, only a few shots of the opposition alliance candidate Kellezinedaolu.

On May 14, more than 64.1 million people registered vote in Turkey.According to Anado News Agency, based on 97.95%votes, Erdogan received 49.34%of votes, and Kellerzaolu received 44.99%of the votes.

If neither of them can win more than 50%of the end, Turkey will hold a second round of voting on May 28.It fell below 50%in the first round of elections. For Erdogan, it was the first time in 20 years.

"Gandhi Katar" shock

"If the state needs to vote in the second round of elections, then we will welcome it." On May 15th, Kolzaolu issued a statement at his headquarters.He also repeated his campaign slogan to ensure that spring would come."All of us miss democracy. After today, you will see spring coming to this country, and spring will continue in spring."

The candidate with a gentle manner and wearing glasses looks opposite to the style of strong man Erdogan.Koholzaolu was 74 years old and was an accountant and civil servant. Later, he served as director of the Ministry of Finance and Chief of the Ministry of Finance and the Chief of the Ministry of Labor and Social Security.

In 2010, Colezaolu became the leader of the Republican Party. The party was a secularist party established by Turkish father Mustafa Keldal Attusk.In the 13 years as a leader, Korlerza Voru has hardly criticized Erdogan directly. Instead, he focuses on expanding the party's appeal. His iconic gesture in the election is to use his hands to compare his hands and use him to use him with his hands, and use him to use him with his hands, and use him to use him with his hands, and use him to use him with his hands, and use him with his hands, and use him to use him with his hands and use him to use him with his hands.In the case of, "people who embrace all people in this country, people with different skin colors."

In March of this year, Colezaolu was elected as a candidate for six Turkish opposition alliances.During the campaign, he showed a more intimate image, often shooting videos in the kitchen or study in Ankara's house, and then communicated and interact with the public through social media.

In a video last month, Korlerzaolu wore a white shirt, rolled up his sleeves, and raised a onion with his right hand.Colezida emphasized to voters that under Erdogan's leadership, out of control's inflation has hurt every family.In the past year, the price of onions has risen by about five times.

Koholza Volu promised that if he came to power, democracy would come, the capital would flow, the currency would appreciate, and the prosperity would come.At a previous campaign, Kohler Daolu also promised to work to end the presidential system and restore the parliamentary democratic system.

From the perspective of the founder of the Turkish project of the Middle East Institute, Koszi Dalu and the current President Erdorian, known as "Gandhi Katr", not only a huge contrast, but alsoThe views of national governance are also very different.But the current concern of the Turks is: who can win?

At present, if the two are decisive on May 28, the votes of the third candidate Hanan Ougen's supporters flow to the key.According to the statistics of Anadolu News Agency, Hanan Orgen currently obtains 5.28%of votes. The political party he represents is the extreme right -wing nationalist movement party.The party's close allies have also jointly governed with the Zhengfa Party.

Niu New Year analysis believes that in this context, if there is no major change in the voting rate, the voters of the Nationalist Movement Party will probably support Erdogan.Arah stepped down.

"The Most Election of 2023"

The first round of voting also made people see a reality. A country at the political crossroads is facing serious polarization.

Similar to the recent five pre -election poll data, the difference between Colezaolu and Erdogan is not large.The voting has not been fully statistics, and the supporters of both parties are therecelebrate.At the headquarters of the party in the ruling party, thousands of Erdogan supporters played the party songs with a loudspeaker and waved their flags and Erdogan posters.

Many supporters of Colezaolu do not sleep all night, waiting for the final voting results.Kohotada also made an appeal on social media, hoping that the voting observer and officials of the Election Commission would not leave their position to ensure the fairness of the voting statistics.

Middle East Democratic Project Turkey's person in charge of Turkey Melwei Tasarro Gru believes that as a leader in power in the past 10 years, Erdo has increasingly controlled judicial, media and public resources.Teldor has gained opportunities for him.However, manipulating votes is not easy for Erdogan. In view of the violations and fraud disputes in 2014, 2017 and 2019, before this Turkish election, civil society organizations mobilized volunteers who recorded records to supervise and protect voting.process.

On October 29 this year, Turkey will usher in the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China.In order to welcome this important day, Erdogan set the next 100 years as the "Turkish Century" and incorporated it into his campaign slogan.And this election will not only become one of the most important political decisions in the country's 100 -year history, but its impact will also be far beyond the Turkish borders.

"Turkey is located in the three continents of Asia -Africa and Europe, and is a middle -aged power at the global crossroads. It is more important in the geographical location of its international strategy.Turkey's international status has been significantly improved, and it is involved in major international issues. "Niu New Year observed.

He further stated that although Turkey is a member of NATO on the Russian and Ukraine issue, he has gone close to Russia and sold drones to Ukraine.In recent years, Turkey has shifted the focus of the EU's foreign policy, and has begun to intervene in Middle East affairs. It has garrison in Syria, Iraq, Qatar, Libya, and Somalia, expanding its influence in the Middle East.

U.S. Politicians News Network this year's Turkish election is "the most important election in 2023". The results of the election will affect the relationship between Turkey and the United States, the European Union and Russia, as well as the Turkish immigration policy, the role in the Russian and Ukraine WarHow to deal with the tension of the East and China Sea.

According to the observation of Niu New Year, since the founding of Turkey in 1923, it has been a "pro -Western country" for a long time, and after Erdogan took office, it has a significant tendency to pull back.Data show that in 2008, Turkey maintained a consistent proportion of 88%in terms of diplomatic and security policies; by 2016, this value dropped to 44%; last year, the proportion was as low as 7%.

and Koellerza, in the campaign, promised to allow Turkey to return to the track of joining the European Union, and proposed to solve regional issues with "priority -priority dialogue and non -interferenceism", and planned to achieve normalization of the relationship with Syria.When talking about the Russian and Ukraine, he expressed his openness to promoting the negotiations between the two parties, but it would also remind Russia that "Turkey is a member of NATO."

Before voting, the ruling party and the opposition party also accused each other of foreign forces such as the United States and Russia intervene in the election.Niu New Year said that if the opposition alliance comes to power, the economic policy in Turkey must be adjusted, and the foreign policy will be very different. Therefore, this election will not only decide Turkey's own destiny, but also the emphasis on the regional and international situations.Plastic has an important impact.