Source: Taiwan United Daily

Author: Liu Yiru

Following the fourth quarter of last year, the first quarter of this year's GDP has been negatively growing, and it has expanded from a negative 0.41%annual growth rate to a negative 3.02%.Three days ago, the Ministry of Finance announced that exports in April this year decreased by 13.3%, which has grown for the eighth consecutive month since September last year.In addition, from January to April this year, the total decline was 17.7%compared with the same period last year, the deepest decline in the same period of the global financial tsunami for 14 years.Based on the main driving force of Taiwan's economic growth, if the export cannot be improved, Taiwan ’s GDP will be guaranteed this year, and it will be a great challenge.

In addition to the annual decrease of

export amount, the regional scope of exports has also expanded.From January to April this year's export growth rate, although there are slight increases (1.2%) for Japan, countries and regions with the highest proportion of exports to Taiwan are negative growth. For exampleFall 28.5%, declined 14.1%to Asia, and fell 15%to the United States.Although the outlet is mainly due to the poor international environment, since September last year, the global economy has actually maintained positive growth (the average growth rate of the annual year was 3.4%).Factors of international economic slowdown.

Therefore, if you look at a wider international trade relationship, you can find the problem of exports of Taiwan, which also stems from the damage caused by the US -Lu trade war.Since the fourth quarter of last year, the proportion of imports from the United States has accelerated from China, but at the same time, the proportion of imports from the United States has risen rapidly.From the perspective of imported products, the US -quality items for China's reduced imports are also corresponding to the items of the EU's main exports.It has not been much difficult to move from China to the EU, except for increasing a little cost.

But when the Chinese mainland's export growth rate of the United States has declined sharply, the mainland also reduces imports to Taiwan; Taiwan from January to April this year, all 11 main export products have been fully negative, even if it is labor -intensive products such as textiles,The decline has also reached 28%; plastic rubber and its products exported by Taiwan have decreased by 40%.

In the process of trade in the United States and Lu, Taiwan was obviously not profitable, and it was harmed first.Especially when the United States has reduced imports to mainland China, in addition to the orders transfer to the European Union, it also moves to the neighboring Mexico, Canada, and South Korea and Asians;The annual annual growth rate of the US exports decreased by 14.4%, 13.7%, 20.7%, and 10.3%).If Taiwan cannot be effectively responded, after this trade transfer is expanded and fermented, even if the international prosperity improves, Taiwan ’s exports and economic growth are no longer.

In particular, as the biggest competitors in Taiwan's exports, although the trade deficit occurred due to the surge in energy imports last year, it was a regional comprehensive economic partnership Agreement (RCEP) that joined January 1 last year, soThe exports of RCEP member states such as Japan and Asians have been greatly increased, and even the historical record of South Korea's export amount is refreshed, and it is even more likely to be the sixth largest export region in the world (second only to mainland China, the United States, Germany, the Netherlands, and Japan).In contrast, Taiwan's export ranking last year has slipped from 16th in the world to 17th. In addition, the annual annual growth rate of exports that has continued for eight months should be vigilant.