Source: Hong Kong 01
Author: Liu Yanting
On the eve of the Russian victory on May 9th, Wagner Group staged a political drama.
On April 29th, Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said in an interview with the pro -government blog, Semyon Pegov, saying that the Wagner Group only obtained 10%to 15%of the required ammunition, RussiaThe Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu should immediately distribute ammunition, otherwise he will report to the commander -in -chief, and may allow the Wagner forces to withdraw from Bakhmut.Porigen at the same time warned that the Ukrainian army may launch a counterattack by May 15, which will be Russia's "tragedy".
Perhaps in response to Pritigon, the Russian Ministry of Defense replaced Mikhail Mizintsev, the highest general responsible for the Russian logistics on April 30.Alexei Kuzmenkov replaced the position, and the former was transferred to Deputy Commander Wagner.
On May 5th, Pryigo was shocked again. In order to avoid meaningless damage, Wagner would withdraw from Bachs on May 10th.In the case of ammunition, they are destined to die meaninglessly. "On May 6, Pritigen directly believed in Shoshigan and asked the other party to issue a combat order before the morning of May 10th and transfer Bach Mumat to Chechen to ChechenLeader Ramzan Kadyrov's Akhmat Battalion forces, "Because Wagner will completely lose the potential of fighting, I believe that the Ahmed Camp forces will still be in the remaining 2.5 remaining under Ukraine.Land of square kilometers. "And Cadrov's response was quite" aspiring together ", saying that he had believed in Russian President Vladimir Putin to prepare to take over Bakhmut.
However, there are many discussions on the outside world, guessing whether Pryigon is a trick or a real ammunition to Russia, and Priggor Ren suddenly changed his mouth on May 7, saying that the Russian army had promised the Wagner forces for the Wagner ForceProvides more ammunition support, and at the same time assign special military operations Deputy Commander Sergey Surovikin to cooperate with Wagner, and the conversation implies that Wagner will continue to be stationed in Bach Mutter and fight against the Ukraine.
At this point, the drama of "withdrawing from Bachmut" finally concluded, but Perigon's operation is not only to allow the internal contradictions of the Russian side to further come to the surface, but it may also bring a dangerous post -war after -war ending to its personal post -war outcome.Essence
The plot of Wagner and Chechen
First of all, no matter what Pleigo actually got, it showed the asking price or the further assistance of the Russian army. The move seriously humiliated the Russian Ministry of Defense, and Cadrov participated in it.
From the perspective of Pryigon's posture, it obviously intend to unite Kadrov, highlighting the incompetence of the Russian Ministry of Defense and the regular army, so that all frustrations of Wagner have now blamed the former in Bachurut.The Chechen troops create a performance opportunity, otherwise they will not deliberately exclude regular troops in the transfer of the army, including the Russian Airborne Force (VDV) that fights around the wings of the north -south wings of the Wagner forces, and chose to be a slightly far away from the Chechen Unit.
Besides, Chechen's combat power is not as brave as it claims.In the case of Wagner's unclean Bachomite, if the Chechen's Ahmed Camp is deployed to this point, it can indeed strengthen the Russian combat power to a certain extent.On the Bilohorivka and some southern front fronts in Lugiak, it has not been a decisive main offensive main force. The reason may be that Chechen failed to withstand high -intensity combat processes, resulting in Cadrov asked Putin to ask Putin"Reduce burden", or Putin's concerns about the casualties of the Chechen troops will trigger the local hatred and evil emotions, causing North Gaoco to be unstable again, so we decide to maintain stability under weighing.In short, the Chechen forces who have not been the main offensive for a long time replace Wagner. If the local situation is critical, I am afraid that it will only get worse.
From this perspective, look at the "retreat threat" of Pryigo, and you can find several ideas and calculations.First, if Wagner did not withdraw from the end, he stayed in Bachomut to continue fighting. Parigen's complaint and allegations against the Russian Ministry of Defense at this time will help shape the following public opinion atmosphere: The reason why Wagna is right is rightBachmut's long -term effort was because the Russian Ministry of Defense pulled the hind legs instead of Wagner's lack of combat power.
In the Battle of Soledar in January 2023, Wagner fought against the Russian regular army: Pricig announced on January 10 that Wagner had occupied Soledar.It was still in the local area, and it was not until January 16 that Ukraine officially acknowledged that Sordal was fell into the hands of the Russian army.In this Bachs Battle, Porigen re -entered the previous plot: before it was overcome, he repeatedly claimed to have been occupied, causing the outside world to lose interest in the "warrior" of the war.This time, it suddenly accused the Russian Ministry of Defense, from the perspective of Porigo's appointment, or could save himself a little face with Wagner.
Second, if Wagner withdraws out and is taken over by Chechen, Perigo still has the opportunity to benefit.Because once the battle is really as bragging, Ahamad Camp quickly advanced and occupied Bachmut in "within a few hours".The troops are also relatively independent of the existence of the regular army, and Perigon can propagate Wagner's blood dedication in the middle and early battles. Cadrov can accumulate military merits for himself, although it has a certain degree of incompetent, after all, from reality, after all, from reality,See, the combat forces will not suddenly exhaust all the combat effectiveness at the moment of discontinued. The so -called "Wagner will lose its combat effectiveness at midnight on May 10th", which is more of the exaggerated rhetoric of Perigo.
Once Chechen takes over, the battle is not good, Cadrov can continue to continue the propaganda framework of Pritig, blame the front line setbacks on the Russian Ministry of Defense, saying that he has not been able to meet his own ammunition needs and troops.The woman is difficult to cook without rice.If the Ministry of National Defense chose to deal with Cadrov's reception request, Perigo would be able to strengthen the propaganda force of "the Ministry of Defense's Fighting" with Kadrov, saying that if it was not for the latter, Bach Murut would have been capturedEssence
Can the Rongguang of Pricigen lasting
In summary, the Ministry of National Defense has almost no "blood loss" response option.Observing the follow -up development, the Russian Ministry of Defense did not immediately respond. Obviously, he felt that Pryigo was "sneak attack" and it took time to think about the next step.Judging from the assistance of Pryigon's "the assistance of the need for ammunition and Surawin", although it allowed the Ministry of Defense to spit out to a certain extent, it also further deteriorated each other's relationship, and eventually it could ignite and set fire.
As soon as you come, regardless of how Wagner's warfare and whether the Russian Ministry of Defense owed its ammunition supply, Perigon's move from the Ministry of National Defense is a "disregarding the overall situation", because now it is the two important nodes of the two major nodes.On the eve of: the so -called "big counterattack" of the Ukraine, and the military parade of Russia's victory day.
First of all, the big counterattack in the rumors, no matter whether this will happen, how much the successful opportunity is, and how strong the strength is.It is bound to not take it lightly, and it will continue to ensure that the front lines have certain defense capabilities.From the perspective of Russian side, because Bachurut has entered the late stage of consuming war, Ukraine's probability of launching a counterattack here should be extremely low, and the war has been continued for a while. Occuping Bachmut is of course war.However, in terms of Russia, there is actually not much surprise and encouragement. ThereforeAfter that, it may adjust the original plan.
Next is a victory day parade.In fact, when the conflict was initially issued in 2022, most of the parties did not expect the battle to drag the military parade of the year.For example, the official war or announced the mobilization of Wu Xuan, but the results did not develop.With the war of victory in 2023, with the war of victory in 2023, although the Russian army was prepared for war, the atmosphere was still not nervous.In this case, Perigon continued to condemn the incompetence of the Ministry of Defense and the regular army. It is undoubtedly the embarrassing Russian army "baked on the fire", and after obtaining the ammunition of the Ministry of National DefenseLuo Weijin "is the only general who knows how to fight". In fact, whether Pritigon really appreciates Surovin is not the point. It is important that this is obviously the two boss who secretly derogates Surovin: as Russia's current defenseThe long Shaygou, and the current chief of "Special Military Operation" Valery Gerasimov.In the end, it still conveys the incompetence of the Ministry of National Defense and the regular army.
Second, Pricigen was allowed to ask for ammunition this time. It also offended the Russian army, but also made Putin's face spit.Since the outbreak of the war in 2022, Western media have repeatedly reported that the "Russian Military Ammunition bottom" and "military reserve inventory tightly" have been reported to create an atmosphere of public opinion that is difficult to hold in Russia.Private procurement of production capacity and other countries that are not concerned about Western sanctions have made the artillery battle's intensity from decline too much, and gradually resolved the outside world and stabilized the military heart.It is enough to carry out effective firepower blows on the enemy. "Compared with early 2022, the procurement of basic weapons is 2.7 times last year.Ligo disrupted the wind.
and Pricig's derogation of Shaoyu and Gracimov will actually strengthen the narrative of "Putin Decision Error".Prior to this, Surovijin was the chief commander of the "Special Military Operation". Regardless of whether it was developed based on military power or other considerations, he retired to Grassimov's deputy. After all, it was also Putin's decision.
In short, Pricig's excessive questioning of the Ministry of Defense and the regular army will eventually turn into an arrow that shoots to Putin.From the perspective of Putin, now it cannot without Wagner at the front line, and the latter is prestigious in the right -wing camp inside Russia.Ge Ren's requirement.However, when the war is over, it may be difficult to have a halo care.
First of all, no matter how Wagner's public action is, his nature is ultimately a mercenary, not a regular army.Regardless of the results of the Russian and Ukraine's final negotiations, the Russian Army will actively control how many land in Ukraine, in the Russian -Ukraine contact line must be stable, Finland and Sweden will successively join the situation of NATO, the United States has strengthened the East Wing of NATO, the Russian military role will be strengthened.It will continue to eat heavy; and now Putin's participation in the 2024 presidential election has a very high probability. Under the consideration of maintaining political order and stability, Russia's wartime high -voltage system will not be lifted overnight, and its military complex will continue to be large.In the future, the actual situation of the joint supervision of Putin and the military may be formed. If Shaoyi Gu and Grassimov continue to be in power, they will not forget the "humiliation of the crotch" today.
Come again, of course, after the war, Russia also needs Wagner to perform overseas operations, such as the military tasks of Syria and Africa battlefields.Compared with Chechen, Wagner has no excessive noise, and Putin is not necessary to settle.If the military wants the president to act after the war, such as the leadership position of Wagner, who replace or overhead Pleiga, and reaches others, Putin may not consider it.
In contrast to the two phases, Cadrov has been in Chechen for many years, and it is "in the middle of the country".Make Anlu Mountain, even if the volume may decline after the war, it should be able to maintain the post of President Chechen; and Pleigo was Putin's confidant before the war.After all, Cadrov can be pressed, but after all, the special costs of the regular army and Chechen are lacking. If the Ministry of Defense of the National Defense is continuously guilty, even if Wagner can win the war in Ukraine, it may not be able to win the Russian internal struggle after the war.
