After the Monetary Policy Conference of the Federal Reserve in May, the US Federal Reserve finally decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points again, 10 rate hikes in just 15 months, rising interest rates from zero to 5%to 5.25 to 5.25%.Although the Fed Chairman Powell said that according to future economic data, it will retain the option to continue to raise interest rates, Powell's interest rate stick is indeed at the moment of "recruitment".
On the one hand, the inflation rate of the consumer price index (CPI) in March this year is 5%, which is the lowest level since May 2021. This value has been the same as the existing interest rate range; on the other hand,, on the other hand,, on the other hand,, on the other handThe sudden high interest rate has led to the impact of small and medium -sized banks in the United States. From the liquidity crisis of the previous bank itself, it has risen to the crisis of confidence in banks to store households.crisis.At this moment, it is the so -called: it is difficult to not raise interest rates, and it is more difficult to raise interest rates.
In -depth perspective, the pure economic policy of the Federal Reserve is not the only "pitch" of global inflation.The continued Russia -Ukraine War has led to the increase in military expenditure in the United States and European countries.With the excessive consumption of military resources in the Russian and Ukraine battlefield, the orders of military industrial enterprises in various countries have increased. In the past year, the United States' military aid for Ukraine has reached $ 77.5 billion (about S $ 102.7 billion), which is equivalent to Ukraine in 2022 domestic production70%of the total value (GDP).The currency flowing to the military enterprises comes from the money printing machines of the governments of various countries.As long as the gunfire of the Russian and Ukraine War continues for a day, inflation caused by super currency will continue to become a nightmare for governments in various countries.
At the same time, Ukraine, as the world's granary, is devastated by grain production capacity and logistics, which directly pushes up global raw materials and commodity prices.The energy supply chain and manufacturing industry chain based on security considerations based on security considerations also make consumer goods prices from all countries rising.Therefore, it is undoubtedly that the current inflation beast can be surrendered to surrender the current inflation beast.
When the interest rate hike can't be added, does the interest rate cut channel?the answer is negative.The world has ushered in the era of high interest rates. Low -cost or even cost -free hot money will cause asset prices to be high or even bubble, which is a great adverse factors for controlling inflation.
House leaks are in the era of night rain. In the era of high interest rates, governments of various countries should also cope with the problem of low economic growth.After the epidemic of the two major powers of China and the United States, the economic growth was lower than expected, and the EU Commission's economic growth forecast for the European Union region was greatly decreased from 3.3%in 2022 to 0.3%this year.As an open small economy, Singapore cannot be alone, and its economic growth in the first quarter of this year has slowed to 0.1%.
How to cope with the economic environment of high interest rates and low growth?For governments from various countries, they can be inspired from the words "comprehensive and high -quality forward -looking partnership" just upgraded in the new and China.The position of the industrial chain has forward -looking attention to high -tech, green economy, ensuring the foundation of people's livelihood and social liquidity, and in advance for the country's next global economic take -off cycle, occupying a favorable position.
Governments of various countries must also work together to make the Russian -Ukraine War not overflow and overflow, and seek political solutions for the promotion of suspension of war.If the Russian and Ukraine War can be suspended or even ended this year, the post -war reconstruction of Ukraine will inject a strong needle into the rapid recovery of the world economy.
For the business community, the time to soberly understand that the time of "making fast money with hotline" is already a yellow flower tomorrow. It is necessary to use its own resources at high quality, promote the spirit of the enterprise and pay attention to innovation.Out of the economic new blue ocean.At the end of the crisis is the turnaround, good opportunities are always countries, enterprises and individuals who are prepared in advance.
The author is the president of the Asia -Pacific Regional Enterprise Group
