Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
Economic Daily Society
In the past two years, one of the most significant development of the global economy is that the US government has shown a strong attempt. It is necessary to decompose high -tech manufacturing and mainland China to restore the manufacturing of the United States.This situation that the government's strong leading industry has occurred in the United States, which has strongly advocated "freedom to let go" and persuade other national service "new liberalism" for a long time.
In addition to the US policy changes (25%tariffs on US $ 250 billion in Chinese goods), China's labor costs have risen rapidly, strictly control the epidemic during the crown disease, disrupt the manufacturing supply chain at the expense, plus a long distanceThe transportation of transportation from production has caused a lot of risk of carbon footprints. Black swans such as epidemic and geopolitics have greatly increased the risk of long -distance production, which has accelerated the development of this manufacturing industry.At present, the rebirth of the US manufacturing industry has shown several results.The Wall Street Journal of the United States reported that in 2022, the construction investment in the United States and manufacturing was US $ 108 billion, setting the highest record in history.
According to the British Financial Times, after the United States takes effect after the "Reduction Act of Infringer" and "Chip and Science Act", the company has promised to invest more than $ 200 billion in investment, of which one -third comes from companies outside the headquarters outside the United States.EssenceThe new factories are in urban areas, villages, desert oasis, shore towns and other places, and most of them come from related high -tech fields such as semiconductor, electric vehicle batteries.However, investment is not limited to these areas that can directly receive subsidies from the US government, such as glasses, bicycles, fitness supplements, socks, hats, etc. In the past, in the field of factories in the United States.Investment in the United States; highly automated production, partially solved the problem of high US labor costs.The latest public opinion survey shows that 40 % of American consumers do not like Chinese -made goods, which further provides favorable conditions to return the manufacturing industry to the United States.
Observer or the industry naturally thinks further. How will the situation evolve?Is this a "new normal" or only a short and medium -term phenomenon?In fact, we can get some inspiration from history.Zhang Xiazhun, an economist at the University of Korean Cambridge University, pointed out in his masterpiece "Ficknant's Sugar Coat" that in the 1920s to the 1920s, the United States was the world's most protective country.Only after World War II, the United States was an indispensable country in the world, and then began to embrace free trade; just like the earlier Britain, after its industrial standards surpassed the European and containing competitors, it was found that free trade was beneficial to it.Therefore, it blows free trade.
Therefore, although no one can fully determine how the situation will evolve, if the US government is worried about the backwardness of the industry and has been intervening in the development of the industry for a long time, it will not surprise people.In other words, if "anti -China" can not stop China from approaching (or surpass) the United States, the United States is likely to further expand the field and depth of the anti -China China, and the degree of decoupling with China's economy will increase.
However, can this development block China's "surpass" the United States?How can Taiwan be between the two strongs?According to the current trend of scientific and technological development in mainland China, it is difficult for the United States to prevent China from surpass (the number of patents in many areas in China has surpassed the United States).In terms of some "card neck" technology, China does need some time to break through the blockade, but it is a matter of time to get rid of the United States.However, under the decoustification of the United States, globalization has been impacted, and the economy between the two major groups will also be affected.
In the competitive competition, the "scale economy" will play an increasingly important role.China ’s“ Non -Panmei Group ”created by 146 countries and BRICS countries in 146 countries and BRICS countries currently accounts for about 70 % of the world’ s population, about 30 % of the economic scale, and “Panmei Group” (US, Japan, Central and Western Europe, etc.)There are victory and losses, but the economic growth of "non -pan -beauty" has increased rapidly, and its economic proportion has increased, so that the "scale economy" obtained by China will become larger and larger, and more and more projects will gradually lead.Today, the "return" of the US manufacturing industry will eventually be a short and medium -term phenomenon that cannot be maintained for a long time.After the "Panmei Group" aware of it, it must cooperate with each other to create a win -win situation, and it will return to a more free trade state.
How to maintain a dynamic equilibrium that can make a profitable dynamic equilibrium on both sides of the "Pan Mei" and "Non -Pan Beauty" is a high challenge;The victor under risk.
