Comments: In addition to the US dollar hegemony, the challenge of the RMB stands on th

Recently, various news about the slippery status of the US dollar has emerged. Even the US Treasury Secretary Yellen is worried that economic sanctions on Russia and other countries may damage the dominance of the US dollar in the world.Seeing the rise of the power of the US dollar hegemony, but the other side of the question is: Who can shake the US dollar?What are the conditions for challengers?What are possible roles of RMB?

The US dollar problem has a long history.As the most important reserve currency in the world, the United States has endless currency privileges that can be reached by other countries that can not be reached by other countries.For quantitative looseness and unlimited currency supply; in the face of domestic inflation pressure, interest rate hikes have been raised rapidly. Since the US dollar is the main trading currency, countries around the world have to be floated with them.As early as half a century ago, Dai Gaulle, known for its domineering French president, was deeply dissatisfied with the exclusive "arrogant privilege" of the US dollar.

Even if the problems and criticisms are constant, the dominant position of the US dollar is always stable.Judging from the proportion of other major currencies and the US dollar in international financial activities, the leadership of the US dollar is still quite large.Taking cross -border trade as an example, according to SWIFT statistics, among the global cross -border trade settlement in 2022, the US dollar accounted for 84.84 %, the second euro accounted for 6.31 %, and the third RMB accounted for only 3.91 %.Although the data of different statistical units are slightly different, there is no doubt that the proportion of the US dollar is far ahead.Others, such as global central bank reserves assets, daily foreign exchange transactions, global consumption payment and other projects, the proportion of coins, the US dollar is also the leader,

As for the renminbi, although the proportion of international payment is still low, the development is attractive.After the renminbi was included in the currency basket of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) special withdrawal (SDR) in 2016, it was equal to being certified as one of the five strong currencies in the world.In addition, as the internationalization of the RMB is in full swing, the circulation of RMB in internationalization has grown rapidly.Taking the global cross -border trade settlement as an example, the RMB has doubled between 2021 and 2022, and the growth rate is considerable.Coupled with the popular environment of Sino -US games and strategic competition in recent years, the status of the RMB in the era of the US dollar hegemony has also become a topic.

What are possible characters for RMB?Can you replace the dollar?Objectively speaking, this is probably quite far away.Taking the experience of the US dollar as an example, it has become the first international currency, and many conditions need to be cooperated.The formation of the US dollar hegemony is found in the following factors:

1. Monetary system: After World War II Bretton Woods System, the US dollar was identified as the main currency of international reserve settlement.Under this system, the US dollar is linked to gold, and the currency of other countries is linked to the US dollar hook and exchange to establish the foundation of the US dollar center. With the IMF -based support system, even if the Bretton Forest system ended in the 1970s, it has no hinder it is not hinderedUS dollar status.

2. Currency circulation: Hegemony currency needs to be circulated around the world.After the World War II, the US aid Europe formed European and American dollars; political power and oil transactions forming the Middle East oil dollar; long -term trade deficit with many East Asian countries to form Asia and US dollars.From European dollars and oil dollars to Asian dollars, the US dollar has circulated a large number of international circulation.

3. The status of the Great Power: In the decades after World War II, the United States is the world's most powerful economy and military power.The economic strength of the United States and the existence of global military presence to provide strong credit guarantees for the US dollar

4. Financial market: currency is not only used for valuation and reserves, but also goods.The United States has the world's largest and highly liberalized financial market, which is enough to support a large number of financial commodities in international investment and USD.

Drawing on the historical experience of global currency in the world, it can be seen that the renminbi is very difficult to replace the US dollar at this stage.First of all, as a country of financial control, how much free trading space can the RMB prize financial market be?Furthermore, although China is the second power in the world, the international trust in its political and economic system is still insufficient, and it affects the market's confidence in the market.From the perspective of global currency circulation and reserves, it must be that when other countries have a large amount of RMB balance bottom, that is, China needs to trade with RMB, and the import value is greater than the export value.But at this stage, can China accept the trade deficit and become a super country?

Including a mention that although China has replaced the United States as the world's largest oil importer, oil purchased by China -producing oil -producing countries such as Saudi Arabia still be priced in US dollars.Although the topic of petroleum RMB is very arrogant, there is actually no specific action.As for the currency system and the monetary security system, such as the establishment of the currency fund, it is another more huge project.

In order to infer that the reasonable positioning of the RMB at this stage is not replacing the US dollar, but outside the US dollar hegemony, another stove: 1. Try to conduct international transactions similar to bilateral local currency in China and Russian oil transactions, and finally gradually transition to RMB settlement.2. Sign bilateral currency cooperation with more countries; 3. Third, to develop a settlement mechanism that transcends sovereign currency with friendly national groups (such as the BRICS countries) and start to establish a monetary fund system; 4. Promote cryptocurrency or SDRThe form of basic international reserves is also the proposal of China as early as 10 years ago.5. Continue to promote the international circulation of RMB through foreign aid, trade, investment, etc.

Therefore, in the future, the US dollar is still about the dominant status.As for whether the renminbi can shake and replace the US dollar, it is too early.However, led by RMB, more and more countries are brewing to push the international monetary system from the US dollar center to diversified, but it is worth paying attention to and it is indeed a trend.