Zhou Yuncai: Shuangyings visit to see who can reduce the Taiwan Strait crisis

Source: Zhongshi Electronic News

Author: Zhou Yuncai

In March, Washington is more steep than in previous years. Looking at the Taiwan problem from thousands of miles away, it can implement the heart and lungs like spring cold, but it can objectively evaluate the three parties of the United States and Land.Washington Think Tank Khanzong, in the past few years, has not covered the team of Chinese research in the United States, prefining the strategic location of the United States.

I visited Washington Think Tank, and the experience is as follows: Experts in the Chinese field believe that the foreseeable future, Sino -US relations cannot ease, and the tension continues to rise.The United States identified the mainland as a authoritarian system, and seal the city for three years in the COVID-19 epidemic, depriving people of the people's freedom and suppression of objections.The mainland has developed into a world supply chain in the past 30 years and has a complementary relationship with the US industry. Therefore, the United States can ignore the differences in ideology.Nowadays, China and the United States have formed a competitive relationship in the high -tech field, directly colliding with the core interests of the United States, and the criticism of the Chinese system and culture is also floating on the table.

Secondly, Midea and Mid -Metropolitan are comprehensive. From social software such as Douyin, AI in the field of high -tech fields, semiconductor industries, to trade deficit, net zero carbon discharge, and even regional security. Taiwan issues are only one of them.In other words, the importance and urgency of the United States to weigh the issues of Taiwan's issues will not be based on humanitarian positions or Taiwan democracy.Taiwan's strategic significance and Asia -Pacific security are the primary factor affecting American decision -making.

Third, because the Sino -US confrontation is dynamic, the United States (politicians) will test the bottom line of the mainland in individual events on individual events, in order to obtain the maximum benefits in wrestling, such as the Speaker of the House of Representatives.The Pelosi visit to Taiwan allows China and the United States to form a new understanding: interaction with high -level politicians with Taiwan will lead to the mainland military exercise.The United States fully recognized that if the war broke out in the Taiwan Strait, it would be a situation of losses in the United States, land, and Taiwan. However, this does not mean that the United States believes that the Taiwan Strait is absolutely safe.From the perspective of the United States, the people of the Taiwanese people are not determined to resist and participate in the war. Therefore, it is expected that Taiwan will strengthen its resilience.

Fourth, the United States believes that Tsai Ing -wen can maintain the current stability of the Taiwan Strait than Chen Shuibian, the former President of the DPP.I have to say that the Taiwan -US relations at this time should be the best state since the two sides interrupted in 1979. There is a major environmental factors inherent in Sino -U.S.The dialogue between resources and think tank allows relevant persons to understand the position of the official and the ruling party in Taiwan, which is quite effective.In contrast, with the weekend of Washington, other Taiwanese political parties have no resources to maintain and systematic interaction, which leads to the stance of the new Chinese circles to these political parties.

As we all know, cross -strait policies and Taiwan -American relations have always been a must -have question in Taiwan's elections. It would be difficult for any political party to win the election without the United States "blessings".From the perspective of the interests of the United States, under the main theme of Sino -US confrontation, it is very important to have an allies in Taiwan who have firmly followed the US policy.

Mayor Hou Youyi said: "Taiwan cannot be a chess piece of a strong country."In addition to emphasizing that Taiwan is unwilling to involve in war, it is necessary to start a dialogue with the mainland to reduce the risk of non -controlling military conflicts. The opposition party must trust the United States, and its election will not change the status quo.

According to the polls released by the 21st Century Foundation in February (2023), nearly 90 % of the respondents tend to "maintain the status quo" on the unified independence field, including maintainGo to independence; maintain the status quo, look at the situation and then decide independence or unity; and to maintain the status quo and other options."Maintaining the status quo" is the largest number of people in Taiwan. Any political party proposes to be separated from the status quo.

"Maintaining the Status" can be regarded as a spectrum of Taiwan's positioning. All political parties advocate maintaining the status quo.Equivalence, and which party can voters judge that the party can really "maintain the status quo"?And avoid military conflicts that occur without control?

Turly, Shuangying visits the United States and Lu, respectively, and voters can just evaluate, which one of the position can reduce the crisis factor in the Taiwan Strait?Which one is the opportunity?

Professor of the Department of Information Management of Yuanzhi University