Lin Yuan

The 2024 election will have a profound impact on Taiwan's future, but the final result is not easy to predict.The possibility of the party chairman Ke Wenzhe is quite likely.Because the blue -green camp will not be polite in the presidential election, the probability of the triangle war (the "three coffee") in the election is also quite high.

For Ke Wenzhe, the following four situations may occur in the triangle war of the presidential election in 2024:

1. Similar to the 2018 Taipei Mayor's election campaign (winning without party membership).At that time, the Kuomintang launched Ding Shouzhong, the DPP launched Yao Wenzhi, and Ke Wenzhe, then Taipei mayor, also had to strive for re -election.In the case of Yao Wenzhi's hope of winning, some green camp votes were voted to Ke Wenzhe, causing Ke Wenzhe to defeat Ding Shouzhong with a weak advantage.At that time, Ding Shouzhong won 40.81%, while Ke Wenzhe got 41.06%.Yao Wenzhi's voting rate was only 17.28%, and became the worst record of the Democratic Progressive Party on behalf of the Democratic Progressive Party over the years.At that time, the abandoned insurance at that time was a decision that some green camp voters to avoid the victory of the Kuomintang candidates.

2. Similar to the mayor of the Hsinchu Mayor in 2022 (the people's party wins).At that time, Lin Gengren, Shen Huihong, and Gao Hongan were elected on behalf of the Kuomintang, the DPP, and the People's Party.As the former deputy mayor of Hsinchu City, Shen Huihong's election was inevitably affected by the plagiarism incident of former mayor Lin Zhijian's thesis.After Lin Zhijian withdrawn from the mayor of Taoyuan in mid -August, Gao Hong'an's polls went up and established the leading advantage at the intersection of August and September.Although she had to face the doctoral dissertation of the University of Cincinnati at the end of the suspected violation of copyright law, the leading situation has not changed.In the final stage of the election campaign, due to the hope of Lin Gengren's hope of winning, some people in the blue camp operated abandoned insurance (abandoning Lin Gengren Bao Gao Hong'an), and Gao Hongan allowed Shen Huihong to defeat the DPP (35.68%of the votes) with a voting rate of 45.02%.

The two triangle war situations should be willing to see Ke Wenzhe, one of them is his personal experience.

However, the presidential election is different from the mayor of the mayor and the head of the county (city). It is difficult for the Kuomintang or the DPP to have a situation that "abandoning the party candidate for third parties".Therefore, these two triangle wars -conducive to non -non -large party candidates -a low probability in 2024.

Three, similar to the 2016 presidential election (the DPP win).At that time, the Democratic Progressive Party Tsai Ing -wen and the Kuomintang Zhu Lilun and the Democratic Party Song Chuyu played against them.Tsai Ing -wen got 56.12%, Zhu Lilun's voting rate was 31.04%, and Song Chuyu got 12.83%.The Kuomintang was defeated, and Song Chuyu obtained was mainly blue and middle votes.The results of Ke Wenzhe's election in 2024, Song Chuyu in 2016 can be one of the references.

In addition, if the Democratic Progressive Party candidates have a voting, the situation (in some aspects) may be similar to the Taipei mayor in 1994.At that time, Chen Shui -bian of the Democratic Progressive Party defeated the New Party Zhao Shaokang (30.17%of the votes) and the mayor of the Kuomintang (25.89%).

Four, similar to the Taipei Mayor's election in 2022 (the Kuomintang won).Last year, the Kuomintang launched the mayor of the mayor Jiang Wanan. The DPP sent Cai Yingwen's Mayor candidate Chen Shizhong, and the people and Ke Wenzhe supported Huang Shanshan.As a result of the election, Jiang Wanan's voting rate was 42.29%, which was similar to the 2014 candidate Lian Shengwen (the vote rate of 40.82%) and the 2018 candidate Ding Shouzhong (the vote rate of 40.81%).Huang Shanshan's voting rate was only 25.14%, compared with Ke Wenzhe's votes in 2014 57.15%, and the voting rate in 2018 was obviously regressed.

Ke Wenzhe, who was fully supported by the Green Camp in 2014, lost some of the green camp votes in 2018, and Huang Shanshan had very little support for green camp voters that could get in 2022.If Ke Wenzhe is running for 2024, there will be no green camp votes that can be obtained.

The above two triangle war appeared, both of which means that Ke Wenzhe could not win.At present, in the 2024 Taiwan election, Ke Wenzhe got 25.14%of Huang Shanshan (or 25.89%of the yellow continents in 1994) in 2022, and it was not easy, but the 12.83%voting rate of Song Chuyu in 2016 should be grasped.According to the Minrean Electronics Newspaper polls, in December 2022, Ke Wenzhe's support was 12.7%, which was close to Song Chuyu's voting rate in 2016;gap.According to the polls of the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, Ke Wenzhe's support in January 2023 was 22.3%, and February support was 19.5%.

At present, it can be considered that Huang Shanshan's vote rate in 2022 was 25.14%and Song Chuyu's voting rate in 2016 was 12.83%, which provided an important reference for the estimated Ke Wenzhe's voting rate in 2024.However, there are still many variables in the election.If there is a extreme situation that is not conducive to Ke Wenzhe in the future, his votes will not be easy to predict, but in the 2020 election Song Chuyu's vote rate is only 4.26%, or it can also be reference.

The author is the Journey to the Journey

Researchers of Cross -Strait Relations Issues