Han Heyuan
On March 9th, Joint Early Newspapers published an article entitled by Professor Yang Jun of China University of Political Science and Law that the United States can still be "great again"?The review article, the article continues the author's point of view on March 30, 2021 in the article on the way of re -discussing the Chinese and Western economic competition: The reason why the United States has political decline, social polarization and division, and gradually gradually gradually growing in economic global competition today.One of the reasons behind the wind is the "new system" and the so -called "progressive culture" since the New Deal of Roosevelt, New Liberalism.In the author's opinion, the Trump administration has missed the internal error correction opportunities that have been rare, and everything that the Bayeng government has done now is nothing more than followed.In short, neo -liberalism has brought the United States into a road of decline.
The argument about the decline of the United States is really a new topic.Professor Josef Joffe of the Hoover Institute of Stanford University had special research on this and found that the "American decline theory" has obvious periodicity: repeat and significant stageness, in terms of time, probably every one is every time.10 years per cycle.I agree with his view, because I am writing the Chinese economy to repeat Japan?In the first book, the large number of literatures that I came into contact with supported Jofei.This argument actually reached a vertex in the 1980s; the representative of Paul Kennedy, a representative of the character of Yale University.
In 1988, Kennedy was well -known worldwide with a great country.He gave great optimism to Japan at that time in the book: Japan will rely on financial strength in 2000 to replace the United States into the real center of the world.In 2009, he was re -raised again. Those with the biggest losses of the global financial crisis are the United States. Global power patterns have irregularly raised fundamental fission, and they have begun to move from the west to Asia.
The United States is called the world with soft power
In fact, before him, American scholars, including Herman Kahn, Ezra Vogel, have predicted that the United States will decline.It was just that what they pointed out at the time was Japan.In addition, there is a commonality that they all use economic strength as the standard for measuring the strength of a country.
However, when this decline theory is very arrogant, when the United States is full of a strong pessimism, Joseph Nye is destined to lead the world: the book of power of power in the United States has been published.In this book, the author severely refutes the "American decline theory" that prevailed at the time. He believes that the national power (or translated as national power) does not just depend on, or even depends on military strength and military strength andEconomic strength.Based on this, the United States is not the strongest because of military strength and economic strength, but because of the "third side" of "Soft Power", it is called the male world.
The soft power referred to by Joseph Nai is compared to the hard power of the GDP and the urban infrastructure.factor.He pointed out that not only the content of the material level determines the strength of the United States.Intangible content is also the key element of the United States.History has indeed proven this: As the Soviet Union and Japan showed that the powerful but too single military and economic strength cannot support a country as a truly leading country.
Unfortunately, most people often ignore this. They pay too much attention to those material strength that is easy to perform quantitative analysis, and ignores other aspects of strength, such as social cohesion, political leadership, ideological attraction, cultural attraction of culturePower and so on.Of course, this is not to say that spiritual power is the only element that determines the strength of the country, nor is it that non -material power is stronger than material power, but that the national strength is not one -sided and single -dimensional. It should be comprehensive and comprehensive.This is consistent with the view that American theologicalist Renhold Niebuhr's "national strength is a complex, which is composed of spiritual power and material power."
It must be specifically explained here that I don't think that the United States will not decline. What I will think of Jonfei, an extreme conservative thinker, can be developed in the United States.Because this obviously does not conform to the life, old, sick, and sick in the life cycle; it does not meet the formation, development, maturity, and decline of the formation, development, maturity, and decline in the life cycle.Just like from Spain to Britain, can the United States escape this natural law?Although Ji Fei does not shout long, it may be ridiculous to reveal the thousands of years of remarks.
"American decline" evidence is yet to be questionable
I recognize the objective "inevitable decline theory"; but we can't think that the fallacy that Jonfe criticizes is no longer a fallacy.Of course, their fallacy is not to think that the United States will decline sooner or later, but that the evidence of the decline in the United States that they think is quite questionable. At least "the theory of decline in the United States" is obviously too early.
In fact, so far, this decline theory has been unreliable and has been repeatedly confirmed by history.For example, in the 1970s, the United States trapped in the abyss, and Fu Gaoyi shouted "Japan's first". The subtext is nothing more than the United States has declined.But what about the facts?Under the leadership of Reagan, the United States not only defeated the stagnation of 10 years, but also defeated the Soviet Union; and due to Walc therapy, it activated the devastating creative mechanism and allowed the United States to lead the world again with the Internet revolution.
In 2008, countless people were talking about the decline of the United States when the financial turmoil in 2008.But what about the facts?It is today that the United States is still an unquestionable hegemon in terms of hard power, and its military power and economic power are still the world's first.More importantly, there are not a few of the bottom and elites of all countries that can become Americans.
In the first half of 2009, the US Think Tank Land Company published a research report entitled to measure national strength, proposing that "soft power" should be used as an important indicator of national strength.In the report, analysts believe that soft power is a quite broad but relative concept.However, the report still gives an indicator: measuring the strength of the soft power of a country only needs to answer a simple question. This question is "Where do you want to live most except the motherland?"Answer can comprehensively reflect the impact of a country on the outside world in the fields of economy, knowledge, culture and other fields.
Yes, the cohesion of manpower has been an important indicator of the rise and fall of a country since ancient times.The reason why Qin Kingdom can take the six nations and replace it, and it is not related to the fighting with Shang Yang, Su Qin, Zhang Yi, Han Fei and others; the reason why King Yan Zhao can let Yan Guo ZTE again, with Le Yi, Zou Yan, Drama Xin, etc.People are fighting for swallows.Similarly, the United States can really replace Britain, with Einstein, Enrico Fermi, Wernher Von Braun, Edward Teller, von NoeiJohn Von Neumann and others are fighting for the United States.
