Liu Jincai
Over the years, the Chinese government has always believed that its grain self -sufficiency rate is still in a safe scope. It has been abundant for several consecutive years, and has no real food crisis.According to the calculated data from the US Department of Agriculture, China's major grain inventory such as corn reaches one -half of the world's global. China continues to buy imported food in the global market to maintain its domestic food inventory.The supply shortage is more serious. Due to the decline in the self -sufficient rate of Chinese food production year by year, it may further promote global food prices.
The stability and security of China's food supply and security are testing whether the Chinese government can effectively handle complex social and environmental policies and national governance.The self -sufficient rate of Chinese grains has always maintained more than 97%, and the increase in imports is oil, soybeans, sugar, meat and milk.In 20 years, China's food self -sufficiency rate has dropped from about 100%to nearly 76%, of which the self -sufficiency rate of edible oil has dropped from 81%to 25%, and the self -sufficiency rate of soybeans has dropped from 60%to 17%.
According to the release of the national food security mid-long-term planning (2008-2020) in 2008, it is stipulated that the self-sufficiency rate of grain must be stable at more than 95%.However, in 2012, China ’s self -sufficiency rate fell below 90%, and it did not meet the food safety standards stipulated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. In 2017, it fell to about 82.3%. Although it has repeatedly emphasized that the“ grain self -sufficiency rate ”exceeds 95%, the actual“ food foodThe self -sufficiency "is the correct concept. In addition to grains, it should also include potato and beans.China's "grain self -sufficiency rate" meets the standard, but the overall "grain self -sufficiency rate" needs to be improved.
Food self -sufficiency continues to decline
China National Bureau of Statistics shows that food has been increasing, and the total grain output increased by 2%over 2020.Food output from 2005 shows that in addition to the decrease of 0.6%in 2018, grain products have only increased, and the maximum growth rate is the 3.3%growth rate in 2015.Chinese President Xi Jinping has emphasized: "Chinese people's rice bowls must be firmly brought in their own hands at any time, and the rice bowl is mainly contained in Chinese food."However, there are still difficulties at present. In recent years, China's imported grain prices have continued to soar.
First of all, it is highly dependent on imported food and seeds.Documents (2021-2023), the central government of the mainland government for three consecutive years, have emphasized that autonomy has mastered the source of seed seeds as "the top priority."China's grain import has increased from 5%of the global share to 22%. In the next 5 to 10 years, the import volume of soybeans and grains will remain growing.Most of China must be costly to buy seeds, and most of them are controlled by foreign seed companies, and their prices are very expensive.The cost of farmers growing food is getting higher and higher, and it is more and more dependent on food imports, forming a vicious circle.
Secondly, China's grain self -sufficiency rate continues to decline.China's grain self -sufficiency rate in 2018 was about 80%.In 2000, the self -sufficiency rate of food was 94%, 89%in 2005, 83%in 2010, and in 2020 due to weather and other factors, the self -sufficient rate dropped to about 76%.The reasons for the continuous decline in China's grain self -sufficiency rate stems from the decline in the number of farmers, the decrease in the area of farmland, the deterioration of the soil, and the need to improve production technology.The area of cultivated land is small, and the lack of scale economy has made it difficult for production efficiency to improve.
A decrease in the area of effective cultivated land
Repeatedly, land finance has led to a decrease in effective cultivated land area and reducing the efficiency of grain production.Based on the needs of "land finance", local governments derived illegal expansion and land acquisition behavior, resulting in "the problem of illegal cultivation of cultivated land is still serious, and the red line of cultivation of cultivated land protection is still seriously impacted", which reduces its food production.The third national land survey of the State Council's main data communiqué. At the end of 2019, China arable land was 1.918 billion acres, a decrease of 113 million acres from the end of 2009, which is equivalent to 5%of the raw land.But the actual effective cultivation area is not easy to estimate.
Furthermore, China's rural arable land is severely degraded, acidified, and the problem of heavy metal pollution.Some statistics point out that the proportion of degraded cultivated land is as high as 40%, and long -term intensive operation and mechanized construction have made the northeast's black soil cultivation lighter, soil boards, and a cultivation of cultivated land, and the output decreased.At the same time, about 14.5%of cultivated land has been severely acidified.A pioneering survey in 2014 showed that a large number of heavy metal pollution in Chinese farmland was estimated to be polluted by heavy metals such as cadmium, mercury and arsenic in farmland.
The Central Rural Working Conference of the Mainland Government and Document No. 1 emphasized that "1.8 billion mu of cultivated land must be renamed."China has reduced the production efficiency of agricultural products due to excessive scattered agricultural land and pollution, degenerate and acidified land; depending on migrant workers flowing towards the city, resulting in insufficient agricultural labor and low mechanization, resulting in a decline in grain output.
Finally, China faces a series of natural disasters, including climate change, flood -flooding, and pest epidemic conditions, especially the crown disease epidemic is threatening the stability of the grain system.The United States (10th), Germany (11th), and Russia (23rd), its food security system seems to be vulnerable.
There are 11 so -called "agricultural power" in the world, including the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Australia, New Zealand, Denmark, Israel and Japan.Its evaluation standards are measured by the proportion of agricultural employment, the total amount of fixed assets for agricultural labor, the agricultural productivity, the proportion of urbanization, and the per capita GDP as the measurement standard.But in these five indicators, its ratio is slightly higher than the world average.Based on this standard, it is estimated that China must achieve the goal of "agricultural power". Obviously, it is urgent to plan many innovative economic, social and environmental agricultural policies.
The author is an associate professor at the Department of Public Affairs of Fo Guang University
