Huang Yizhan
With the anniversary of the Ukraine and Russia, most media have long lost their interest in updating the war daily, and the public will also increasingly occur in the distant conflict, and it is accustomed to being regarded as part of the "new normal".I remember that at the beginning of the conflict, when the European and American powers condemned the crowds, it was also rare and united to make sanctions against Russia. From energy and industrial raw materials to people's livelihood -related enterprises, they were embarrassed or trapped.Is the Russian economy really collapsed?Not so.
With sanctions, embargo, and overseas assets frozen, Western companies such as Apple and McDonald's announced the suspension of Russia's market business, and have been kicked out of the SWIFT system, which clearly isolate Russia from the global economic market.Will this always cause enough deterrent?But in contrast, Russia's economic data, although the rubles fell more than 30%against the US dollar at the beginning, and the stock exchange market collapsed for a while, as time was lengthened, and the Russian Central Bank of the Russian Central Bank was a series of measures to pull interest rates and restrict foreign exchange measures.In the 2022 of Russia's rubles, in 2022, it became almost the most strong currency.When the currencies of various countries have depreciated compared to the US dollar, the Russian rubles have appreciated, which also slows down the problem of inflation in China.
Why is this so?In fact, the Russian President Putin did not take into account Western economic sanctions before launching the war, and the proper approach was simple and rude. Regardless of the overseas assets of politicians and businessmen in the West, or forbidden navigation, or cracking down on finance and markets, etc.The best weapon owned by Russia is "energy".Russia is the world's largest natural gas exporter. The second largest oil exporter. In the past, more than 40%of natural gas in Europe was imported from Russia. Since the West is not allowed to use the US dollar, it can only be settled with rubles with energy.
Besides, after all, energy such as energy is a rigid demand. Any country, an industrial chain, or a people's lives cannot not need energy for a day.Because of this, since the "normal path" in the past cannot be sold, there are many Asian countries with a large demand. For example, China and India are willing to purchase Russian crude oil.BBC also has a series of tracking reports that confirms that the procurement of China and India alone has reached more than half of Russia's exports of sea transportation oil exports.
"Underground Economy" helps Russia to sell Russia to Europe
Energy prices caused by sanctions rose, oil prices were once pushed to a barrel of $ 120, and natural gas prices have twice or three times in most countries.After such a meal, even if Russia sold the "barrels" a lot, the "price" of each barrel rose sharply, which led to the profit of Russian oil exports, which is much higher than before the war.Western countries led by Europe, because they are still in the recovery stage of the crown disease, and have been pushed up to the inflation rate and price by the energy crisis, the situation is worse than Russia.Western media burst into the Russian War of Russia and Ukraine with a high responsibility of downturn and high energy prices. Putin felt inexplicable: sanctions were made in the West, but the fire was burned to Russia in turn to be responsible for Russia?
At the same time, another great "underground economy" -smuggling and black market, help Russia (and other countries with US sanctions) at any time, stable and long -term providing necessary "services".Taking oil as an example, according to data from the International Oil Tracking Website (TANKER Tracker), since April 2022, more than 10 million barrels of crude oil has been loaded with "unknown" oil tankers.These oil tankers will subsequently drive to the Gonghai. After the so -called "ship -to -ship connection" (STS) method, it is mixed with oil on the larger oil tanker, making it more difficult to prove the place of origin and sold to other destination ports smoothly.Through similar ways, many Western countries participating in sanctions still purchase Russia's oil more or less.Wall Street Journal is still purchasing Russian oil, but it is more difficult to track now, which indirectly confirms this.
The transportation on land is more difficult to track.Taking oil and natural gas as an example, energy from Russia went to Azerbaijan, near the land pipeline, and then mixed through the pipeline to Turkey through the pipeline. Finally, it was loaded and exported in the port of the Mediterranean, which also had a great probability.These "washed" energy sources were sold to Europe.
The monopoly strength of the European and US military sciences is not as good as before
Similarly, most traders who have been exposed to the raw material circle also know that seeing the petrochemical fuels exported by Dubai, Oman, and Iraq, there are Iranian mixed oil behind seven or eight.Extremely complicated layers of architecture, such as heading companies established in Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, etc., and immediately end the operation after finishing a single transaction; or through trading companies established in Japan, South Korea, India, etc.The letter of credit or guarantee, instead pays the payment of energy to the overseas account designated by the seller through other methods.
These "international trade" are actually nothing new. As early as the war began, it had been in different markets for years.For example, Taiwan used the "Reporter" of the well -known online media platform to track the investigation. Not long ago, the Australian lobster was exposed in detail.In 2020, Australia was evil, and China suddenly made measures to prohibit lobster imports on Australia. It seemed to have a serious blow to Australian aquatic exports.Smart exporters use Taiwan's commanding standards, and then connect with importers from Golden Gate and Matsu, and enter Xiamen and Fuzhou in a magnificent place.To.Therefore, it is not only that Europe and the United States have limited sanctions on Russia and China. Even if China itself has the embargo and trade obstacles set by the West, it also has a cracking method to cleverly maintain the interests of all parties.
In addition to buying and selling, you can continue to continue. Economic sanctions among the great powers are becoming more and more effective. There are several important reasons.Unwilling to dance with the United States.Furthermore, the monopoly strength of military and technology in Europe and the United States is not as good as before. In many fields, the performance of Russia and even Asian countries is not vully.change.
In the past, the United States could defeat the economic blockade and sanctions in the past to defeat the Yugoslav, Iraq, and Libya of the year.At least, the economy of these sanctions countries does not collapse, but it is difficult to suppress inflation, which is eroding the economic and society of Europe and the United States.
The author is the United Nations Advisor of the Information Technology Department
Western media burst into the Russian War that the downturn and energy prices have risen. Putin felt inexplicable: Sanctions were made in the West, but it was burned to Russia in turn to be responsible for Russia?
