Zhu Ming
If the world economic crisis caused by the US financial crisis in 2008 means the depletion of the global dividend; the bankruptcy incident of Silicon Valley Bank is the turning point of the entire global historical cycle.It represents the true end of the New Liberalism and globalization of the end of the Cold War. Like the Russian and Ukraine War and Saudi Iran, the world will return to the era of global nationalism.
This is more like the first global economic crisis in 1873, rather than in 1914 or 1929. The discovery of the Dajin Mine of the New Jinshan (Melbourne) and San Francisco (San Francisco) -s increased that it was not monopolizedThe mass consumption power controlled by oligarchs, as well as the development of the huge market in China in the late Qing Dynasty -the crisis lasted until 1914.This is the end of the Victorian era.In a century after this, the world did not return to the era from 1850 to 1873. The confidence of social progress and wealth growth was not until the late 1980s.Division.
Because globalization will inevitably face market development at the end, at the same time, the most leading and powerful industrial country will change from product output to capital output countries.In the end, the middle class will be united with some domestic capital that has not benefited from globalization to form the forces of anti -globalization, such as the American red neck, populist and Trump alliance today.In the late Victorian period, many British domestic industrialists also joined forces against globalization, and they supported the implementation of trade protectionism.These two points determine that globalization cannot continue.
If you make a simple metaphor, the capitalist economy is like making cakes. If you want to make the cake bigger, the easiest way is to invest more flour, eggs and cream.The same is true for developed western countries. In order to make cakes, more labor, markets, and resources must be incorporated into their economic system.This is globalization. By receiving China, India, Vietnam and other countries, it has improved the economic level and national benefits of developed countries in the common market in the international common market.In the first ten years of the 21st century, in addition to a few "hermit countries" such as North Korea and Myanmar, almost all markets, labor and resources in the world have been included in the world economic system until the must be accompanied by capital credit expansion and global worldwide.The dividend of Hua has reached the end.
Another method is to use new ingredients and new methods to make cakes, that is, the new technological revolution, or "violent adjustment" of the old order.The former has great uncertainty and risks of errors; the latter means to cut the cake again, that is, changing the elements of global resources, markets, and industrial chains.method.This method usually means further strengthening of the nation -state, because it needs to use more resources for the national education technology and military power, and it must inspire the national love of the country and better play their wisdom.This often means that the adjustment of class relations, emerging countries may be possible, and it is difficult to defend the country.
These two methods often act as the mainstream in history. In the first round of the first round of globalization led by the British Empire in the middle of the 19th century, it ended the world economic crisis in 1873.After this economic crisis, the United Kingdom, which has been reluctant to support the global road, gradually declined, the first to embrace the nationalist Germany, and began to quickly shorten the gap with Britain.
The global financial crisis, which also began in 2008, also represents a round of globalization led by the United States from the end of the 1980s and the end of the Cold War.Since then, the rise of global nationalism is not surprising.This is completely in line with historical laws.
The author is the Deputy Dean of Chengdu Shitong Research Institute
