Lus: What does the United States help the Silicon Valley Bank of the Silicon Valley Ba

Source: Bloomberg

Author: Ruth Carson

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) closure and the US government's rapid rescue of the bank's storeders is stirring in various market bets including the US economy and interest rate prospects.

U.S. regulators quickly promise to protect the security of Silicon Valley banks' funding, and set up a new "BTFP)" bank -oriented loan plan (BTFP) "to curb panic in the health of the US financial system.Market participants believe that this should help boost market emotions in the short term, but in the long run, it may lead to moral risks.

The following are the most progressive progress of investors and strategists on the latest progress of the Silicon Valley Bank incident:

boost emotions

Priya Misra, Daoming Securities Global Interest Rate Strategy Director

"Even if SVB is sold, concerns about the liquidity and capital status of the banking system will still exist. The new BTFP plan provides the bank to a large extent to largely boost emotions. We expect bank loan standards to standardize standards.It will further deteriorate and increase downward risks. Although we expect the Fed to continue to raise interest rates to curb high inflation, we still look at the 10 -year US Treasury bonds. We predict that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes will raise interest rates by 25 base points in March, and the interest rate peak is 5.75%."

Moral Risk

Michael Every Every and Ben Picton, Dutch Cooperation Bank Strategyer

"If the Fed now provides support for any institution that is in asset/interest rate pain, then they are actually allowing financial conditions to relax on a large scale and have risky moral risks.Fast and actively enable the one -year BTFP interest rate to align with the Fed's end interest rate, then the US debt yield curve may become steep; if investors believe that the Fed's actions will cause high inflation to be more sticky, then the US debt yield curve may be a bear market.Going steep. "

Can't guarantee

Paul Ashworth, Kaitou macro chief North American economist

"In terms of rationality, this should be enough to prevent the risk of the incident from spreading and dragging more banks. In the digital age, this situation may occur in a blink of an eye. HoweverThe fear of rational, so we must emphasize that this cannot guarantee that this will definitely work. "

Suspension interest rate hikes

Goldman Sachs Economist Team headed by Jan Hatzius

"Given the pressure of the recent banking system, we no longer expect that FOMC will raise interest rates at the policy meeting on March 22, and the interest rate path will still be greatly uncertain after March."

Strong rebound

Erika Najarian, UBS Securities Analyst

"We believe that bank stocks in the United States may usher in a strong rebound.""Our customers may continue to tend to choose high -quality banks. What is ironic is that these large and unable to fall down under regulators are banks with a large amount of liquidity and capital", namely JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and rich countries.Essence

US dollar pressure

John BromHead, Australian and New Bank Strategyer

"The intensity and speed of policy response measures should be able to calm down the panic of the banking system. Similar to the British pension crisis in September and October last year, decision makers can effectively make risks and avoid any form of systemic events.To the currency that is sensitive to risks, it has rebounded, and the US dollar is under pressure. "