Liu Debing: The Chinese property market is warm and cold?

Source: China News Weekly

Author: Liu Debing

Recently, there have been some signs of improvement in the real estate market across China, and the property market has a trend of stabilizing and recovering.

However, due to the long -term business model of "high leverage, high debt, and high turnover", the high -risk state of Chinese real estate companies cannot be ignored.

Minister of Housing and Urban -Rural Development, Ni Hong, recently said that the next step will be used to "grab the two ends and bring the middle" method to resolve risks in a "precise demolition" method.

What is "precise demolition"?How to resolve the risk of the property market and avoid mine?

Shifang is warm?

Middle Finger Research Institute showed that the transaction volume of the property market in February increased sharply by 31.9%month -on -month, a decrease of a year -on -year decrease.The turnover of first -tier cities rose 5.0%month -on -month, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen increased significantly from the previous month.The second -tier representative cities rose 43.9%month -on -month and 2.3%year -on -year, of which Jinan rose the highest increase, with a month -on -month increase of 108.16%.The third -tier representatives increased by more than 50%month -on -month, of which Shaoguan rose the highest increase, with a month -on -month increase of 140.4%.

On March 7, the Minister of Housing and Urban -Rural Development, Ni Hong said on the channel of the two sessions that from the perspective of market supply, market expectations, and policy implementation, confidence in the rise of the real estate market.

In terms of supply and demand, many housing project reinstation rates have been greatly improved, the amount of house viewing is also greatly increased, and the transaction volume has also improved significantly.In terms of market expectations, in January and February this year, the national commercial housing sales ended the negative growth of 13 months. The housing prices of 70 large and medium cities were generally stable.improve.In terms of policy implementation, policies that have strong support for the first house and reasonable support for the two houses have been introduced, and it is implementing it. At the same time, regarding the re -entering of speculators to re -enter the market. In principleRequirements are also implemented seriously.

At the same time, Ni Hong said that while supporting the stability of the real estate market, it is also necessary to prevent the risks that the real estate may form.

This year's government work report proposes, "effectively prevent the risk of resolving high -quality heads, improve the status of assets and liabilities, prevent disorderly expansion, and promote the steady development of the real estate industry."

At present, the risks of the property market are mainly concentrated on the housing company.

Wang Yiming, vice chairman of the China International Economic Exchange Center, said that real estate development investment is expected to stabilize, and the tension of high -quality real estate companies has been relieved, but real estate companies have not stronger investment and willingness to increase investment.

Crisana Srinvasan, director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Asia Pacific, believes that while the Chinese economy has shown a strong rebound, from the medium -term perspective, the Chinese economy will face three major risks.Among them, the first thing to pay attention to is that the Chinese real estate industry that is trapped will have a negative impact on the sustainable economic growth of China's economy.

Professor of the University of Capital and Trade, Zhao Xiuchi, vice chairman and secretary general of the Beijing Real Estate Law Society, told China News that the real estate industry is the pillar industry and pilot industry of the national economy, which is related to steel, cement, construction, decoration, etc.The survival of dozens of industries upstream and downstream affects national economic growth.The dilemma of the real estate industry will lead to a series of chain reactions. Developers cannot pay the property on time, which will trigger "disconnecting the tide"; "disconnecting the tide" will cause bank loansEssence

There are many hidden dangers

At present, the debt crisis of housing companies is still high.

Since last year, the phenomenon of debt defaults in housing companies has risen.In 2022, the number of bonds in the exhibition period of the domestic debt of real estate enterprises, not paying principal and interest on time, triggering cross default, and substantial breach of bonds was as high as 105, involving 28 bond issuance entities, with a default scale of 128.38 billion yuan;The number reached 94, involving 36 issuers, and the scale of breach of contract was 320.01 billion U.S. dollars.

From the perspective of listed real estate companies, according to incomplete statistics, as of the end of 2022, a total of 40 listed real estate companies had debt defaults.Although the number of liquidated housing companies accounted for less than a quarter of the number of listed housing companies, the proportion of assets and liabilities of liabilities in liquidated housing companies accounted for nearly 40 % of listed real estate companies.

At present, on the one hand, since the outbreak of the debt crisis of Evergrande, there are more and more "stroke" enterprises that have the risk of debt default, and the scale of risk companies is large.On the other hand, the symptoms of some insurance companies such as Evergrande and Blu -ray have become more serious.

The 2022 performance trailer released by Blu -ray Development recently showed that after paying a 16 billion yuan asset impairment loss, a non -operating loss of 600 million yuan, and a business loss of 5.8 billion yuan, it belongs to the net company's net shareholders' netAssets have changed from 1.357 billion yuan in 2021 to -20.821 billion yuan, which has been funded.

The National Financial and Development Laboratory Real Estate Financial Research Center analyzed that some of the debt risks of some insurance housing companies have been liquid risk at the initial breach of contract.The reasons such as sexual losses and non -operating losses caused by debt default have evolved into the risk of non -debt.Once the funding is not offset or even enter the bankruptcy liquidation procedure, the impact will be systematic.

Statistics show that in 2022, China's commercial housing sales area was 135.837 million square meters, a decrease of 24.3%over the previous year; commercial housing sales were 133.308 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.7%over the previous year. This sales were the lowest in 6 years.

Pan Gongsheng said that coupled with the mid -long -term demand center level of the real estate market, and the impact of the three -year epidemic impact on employment and income, it has a greater impact on employment and income. The superposition of multiple factors has enlarged the spillover of the risk of the real estate market.

Ma Hong, a senior researcher at Zhixin Investment Research Institute, told China News Weekly that there are many hidden dangers in the current real estate market. It is expected that the revenue growth rate of real estate companies will be further slowed down in 2023.Small and medium -sized housing companies are still likely to continue to face business losses and debt defaults.

When answering the inquiry letter of serious losses, Blu -ray Development responded that in 2022, although the policy of supporting the real estate industry was introduced one after another, the policy landing and market conduction took a certain time.The market is still continuously undergoing pressure. Maoming, Xinxiang, Dazhou, Kunming and other cities have even fell in volume and price, and the pressure of losses is greater.

Zhao Xiuchi told China News Weekly that the current risk of China's real estate industry is reflected in the difficulty of developers' financing. Some developers have broken capital chain and cannot be delivered to the house on time.In the strict purchase restriction policy, buying a houseThe demand cannot be released; due to the failure of the market signal of the housing price, the market signal of the house price cannot reflect the supply and demand relationship of the market. New house prices and second -hand housing prices have inverted; some long -term rental houses, commercialized categories, and 100%developers' self -owned projects cannot achieve a virtuous circle.

"Precision Bomb"

Liu Lijie, market analyst of Shell Research Institute, told China News Weekly that since the beginning of this year, the restoration of the new housing market is weaker than the restoration of second -hand housing.Delivery on schedule still holds a wait -and -see attitude. Therefore, the resolution of the risk of real estate companies is the key to the stable repair of the real estate market.

While affirming China's property market policy,

While affirming China's property market policy, it is suggested that through a macro -prudential policy to strengthen the protection of home buyers, and promote the transformation of the real estate industry.

Wang Yiming said that it is necessary to continue to improve the assets and liabilities of high -quality heads of real estate enterprises, meet the reasonable financing needs of the industry, and promote real estate investment to the bottom.

"Need comprehensive policy to change the status quo", Ma Hong, a senior researcher at the Institute of Zhixin Investment Research, said that in 2023, the regulatory authorities will implement the plan to improve the asset -liability statement of high -quality housing enterprises, and carry out "asset activation", "liabilities continuity", "equity supplementary equity supplementation"Expected improvement" four actions, comprehensively improving the operating and financing cash flow of high -quality housing enterprises, and guiding the return of high -quality housing companies' balance sheets to return to the safe range.At the same time, it is necessary to do a good job of doing well in the preservation of diplomatic relations, protecting the people's livelihood, and maintaining stability.Break the "risk.

"If you find a way to keep the real estate market recover, and boost the confidence of the market entity through the market heating back," Zhao Xiuchi believes that the current dilemma of the property market has both the impact of epidemic conditions and the impact of rigorous policies.To resolve the risks of the property market, we need to provide support from relevant policies from two aspects of supply and demand, adjust the outdated real estate regulation policies, and deal with the relationship between the relationship between the leasing market and the property housing market, and the relationship between the market and protection.

She suggested that for developers, especially for the support of low -cost financing in the hyperlore market, we must give financing support from multiple channels such as loans, bonds, equity, and funds.For buyers, cities should apply because of the city, and appropriately adjust the outdated purchase and loan restriction policies according to the population and talent policy; the down payment and interest rate of housing consumer loans should be further reduced, and the personal mortgage interest rate should be lower than that of small and medium and micro enterprises.interest rate.

In addition, it is necessary to think about the relationship between the commercial housing market and the guarantee housing market. The price limit should not be applied to the commercial housing market; allowing inefficient and idle commercial categories, factories, etc.The long -term rental apartments of 100%developers who have no profit model are allowed to switch to common property housing.

Ni Hong said that in the next step, the method of "grabbing both ends and the middle" method will be used to resolve risks in a "precise demolition" method."One end" is to grasp high -quality real estate companies, and one regards to support high -quality state -owned housing companies and high -quality private housing companies, improve their assets and liabilities, and meet their reasonable financing needs.Being able to rescue yourself, on the other hand, strictly handle it in accordance with laws and regulations, and never allow behaviors that harm the interests of the masses to pass the barrier, and let them pay a price.

In this regard, a person in the real estate industry said that during the downward period of the property market, some developers held the mentality of waiting for the rescue as before, and the result of missing self -rescue was missed.Rescue yourself as soon as possible, or transform.

The analysis of the middle finger research institute believes that in the future, the financial support for high -quality housing companies is expected to continue to increase, and the policies that have been introduced in the early stage are also expected to accelerate the implementation and promote the continued improvement of corporate funds.At the same time, the first mention of "preventing disorderly expansion" this time, in the past many years, housing companies have promoted the rapid development of the industry under the "three high models", and some housing companies' market share has increased rapidly, but it has also led to the accumulation of industry risks.Supervisory or strictly maintain sustainable development of enterprises.

At the same time, Ni Hong said, "The stability and recovery of our hope should be firmly insisted on 'houses used to live, not to stabilize the stability recovery of the‘ positioning.Stability and recovery are the stability and recovery of the market to prevent the market's ups and downs.