Source: Hong Kong 01

Author: Lu Yi

As we all know, the Russian and Ukraine War was a war between both sides and three sides. Russia and Ukraine were both sides of the war. The United States was an important third party. NATO was only an extension of the United States.

The Russian and Ukraine War lasted for a year, and many people paid attention to the strategic goals of Putin. At the beginning of the outbreak of the war, Russia announced the two strategic purposes of militaryization and Naziization. However, the Russian army failed to fail.Founding Ukraine's will to resist, and the war of war continues after NATO intervention. Today, Moscow is very difficult to achieve the two goals of de -military and Naziization.Today, Russia's strategic goals have been significantly transferred to consolidate the current status quo -Crimea, and Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and KhersonFour places.Western media also continued to speculate on this, thinking that Russia "soldiers are like a mountain."

If, Ukraine on the other side is actually involuntary.The Ukrainian war has become the "battle of the country" in Ukraine.The bottom line of Ukraine is that the Russian army must withdraw from the occupation site.But we all know that the border between 2014 is impossible to accept Russia, which not only means a complete failure of the war, but also means that it permanently abandon Crimea and Donbas.Crimea and Donbas's belonging is a complicated issue, but for Russia, this problem has been solved and is an indispensable part of Russia.

In a sense, this is also the "battle of the country" of modern Russia. It is the battle for the reinvention of the Russian nation.If Russia is defeated in the war, Putin's political life is second, and Russia may disintegrate for the second time.Putin also mentioned that "war is related to the survival of Russia."

In a certain sense, underestimating opponents and unrealistic political goals are the deep reasons for Russia's failure in the early days of the war.Mia, to keep the right bank and the Crimea corridor, there may be seizing the whole territory of Don Jetzk and Lugusk.These are limited and clear military goals, and they are also highly realized.

As the aforementioned, Ukraine wants to restore the 2014 border, but lacks endogenous realism, and it is only clear.What about the United States standing on Ukraine?Ukraine lacks its own strength at all. From another perspective, the more powerful the United States and Europe aids, the greater the dependence of Ukraine.You have to ask, how long will the United States support?

As the director of the Central Foreign Affairs Office of the Mainland Government, Wang Yi said in Munich, "We don't know the reason for it. It seems that some forces do not want to be successful and unwilling to stop.Do not care about the damage that Europe has suffered, but has greater strategic goals. "

So, will the United States support Ukraine for a long time?U.S. supports Ukraine is not for morality, but from interferenceism.After World War II, the United States was involved in and fighting everywhere.But the history of interferenceism in the United States is also full of failure.

For example, the goal of the Gulf War is to defeat Saddam and liberate Kuwait. Old Bush resisted the impulse to expand the war and made the Gulf War a rare successful war in post -war American history.But the Vietnamese war failed, because from the beginning, the goal of the war was not clear."Preventing Communist Domino" is vague, and there is no clear boundary and success or failure standards.The Vietnam War was getting bigger and bigger, longer and longer, and finally when it was out of control, the United States withdrew.

Similarly, there are invasion of Afghanistan.After the "911" terrorist attack, Bush announced the war on September 18.At the beginning of the war, the United States dispatched small stock special forces, air strikes and a small number of CIA agents to support the Northern Alliance in the anti -Taliban to launch an offense.From December 2001 to January 2002, whether or not it was captured or killed Osama Bin Laden, the goal of the United States' war in the United States has basically been achieved: Al QAEDA was defeated military in military, Taliban was defeated, and the Taliban was defeated.The new Afghanistan regime supported by the United States was established, and the 911 terrorist attacks were generally revenge.

But then, why did I continue to spend 20 years in Afghanistan?The so -called eradication of Islamic terrorism soil is like "preventing communist Domino cards". It is a ambiguous ideological wish, not a reality and clear political goal.Islamic terrorism is not a tangible entity and has its own ideological foundation, and ideas cannot be eradicated with military means.In the end, the Taliban rolls came again, and the U.S. military retreated in the warehouse.

The same is true of the

Iraq war. At first, the goal of the US war was to eliminate Saddam's large -scale killing weapons and cut off Saddam's support for base organizations.In military, the U.S. military invasion is smooth.But politically, the United States was difficult to ride a tiger -after the U.S. military entered Iraq, it still did not find any evidence of Iraq's large -scale killing weapons, nor did it find Saddam's support base organization.

But at this time the United States expanded the goal of war to "democratization of the Middle East."This is a more boundless ideological "wish". In the end, everyone saw that democratization changed its taste, and the invasion of the United States also breeds more extreme ISIS than base organizations.The United States has not completely withdrew from Iraq, but it has no sense of presence.

In Ukraine, the United States is making similar mistakes.The goal of the United States has changed: from the retreat of the Russian offensive to the great weakening of Russia through the Ukrainian war, it is best to promote Russia's political change or even disintegrate.This is the goal that the United States will not say clearly, but "Putin must step down" is the this man can not remain in power.However, through such a goal in Ukraine's agent war, it lacks performance at all.

The United States must answer the ability and determination of "infinite" upgrades that Russia have dispersed again, and have the ability to completely deprive each other's war?Even Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United States have retreated, and even Taliban has no foreign aid. It has been consumed by the United States for 20 years with the United States, not to mention that now facing "polar bears" Russia.When the strategic intention of the United States has changed, this means that this "consumption" is most likely to "consume away" the United States.Then I will ask if Ukraine has its own determination and confidence to fight to the end.This answer is also obvious.