Lion City pulse
The trouble of buying a house is because the price is too high to afford it?Or because of too many conditions, you can't find the ideal house?Located in a mature city, the better the house, the more people buy, the fierce the competition, the higher the price.Every family who wants to buy a house, the choice between the price and the place is difficult to achieve the beauty of both.
Let us use data and use three different methods to objectively analyze the residential housing burden.
First of all, the medium number of PRICE to Income Ratio (PIR) is measured to measure the increase in house prices and income growth.I collected the transaction price of various housing types in the past 20 years, and the family income data published by the Bureau of Statistics, and calculated the median PIR of public housing and various private homes.
The PIR value of Singapore's pre -sale and resale groups is relatively stable, maintaining less than five times.This means that the median price of the HDB is five times the median annual income in Singapore's family.This index shows that the group house is still affordable.If the additional allowances of the HDB house are also considered, the family buying a house has a higher burden.
Urban Reform Institute and the Frontier Center for Public Policy, the two North American public policy think tanks (Australia, Canada, China, Ireland, New Zealand, New Zealand,Housing burdens in Singapore, Britain, and the United States) have published an international housing burden capacity survey (DEMOGRAPHIA International Housing Affordability).The survey defines the PIR value of more than 5.1 times as "highly unavailable".
The PIR value of the non -private house in Singapore in 2021 is 12.7 times (slightly lower than the peak of 14.1 times in 2014).Sydney (15.3) and Vancouver (13.3) are low in cities; that is, it is still more affordable than those of these cities.
Second, the price gap of various types of room types can also reflect the distribution of demand.The larger the price difference, the greater the gap in the buyer's home purchase ability. Generally, low -income families may not be able to afford a house with an average price above the average price.
The median transaction price of non -local private houses, although from 1.3 million yuan before the epidemic in 2019 to 1.62 million yuan in 2022, is lower than the average transaction price of the same year.The average price of private houses is close to the transaction price of 70 levels, which also shows that the price paid by 70%of non -local private house buyers is lower than the average price of similar houses.Its average price is more likely to be affected by 30%of the most expensive private house transactions, and most of these houses are distributed in the central district.
The gap between the price of the group house is not as scattered as the private house market.Taking 2022 as an example, the average price of four -bedroom or larger resale groups was about 610,000 yuan, and the median price was 580,000 yuan.The price gap between the pre -order group (BTO) is smaller. In 2022, the median price of a four -bedroom or larger BTO is about 474,000 yuan, and the average price is about NGD 456,000.This may be the government's strict management of the pre -sale group pricing, maintaining the price of the pre -sale group in a affordable range.
From the perspective of end point price difference, the end price difference between the pre -sale and resale group housing market is also significantly different.In Du Shengzhuang in Queen's Town, the resale price of a five -bedroom unit was 1.42 million yuan. Compared with a five -bedroom unit in Woodlands, the lowest price was 373,888 yuan in 2022.The difference is 1 million yuan.These pole spreads will make people worry and lose the focus of the overall situation.
Analysis from the pre -sale project in 2022, the highest price of a five -bedroom house located near Hongmao Bridge Metro Station was 878,000 yuan.In the same year, a five -bedroom pre -sale group house in non -mature groups such as Yishun, Gook of Wugosba and Bangbangbang was 450,000 yuan.Such a price distribution allows families with different income levels to have more affordable pre -sale group housing choices.
Housing purchase ability is a relatively sexual issue.Families with lower income have the choice of non -mature town or smaller house -type houses.Under the financial ability permit, they can also buy a house unit close to their parents or mature cities and towns.
Third, Housing Cost To Income (HCI Ratio) is an economic cooperation and development organization (referred to as Economic Organization) and other government agencies. It is often used to measure housing burden.The Economic Organization defines the "affordable" housing as: house housing costs do not exceed 30%of the total income.The Housing Construction Bureau also adopted the same method and called it a monthly repayment loan ratio (MSR).
The HDBC published advertisements in newspapers, using illustrations to explain to the public to explain the financial expenditure and burden of house purchases of houses.Some eligible families do not even need to use cash to pay monthly installments when they purchase pre -sale houses.
I calculate the HCI Ratio of general Singapore families and analyzes their home purchase capabilities.Assuming that the preferential annual interest rate of HDB loan is 2.6%, the loan period is 20 years, and the loan value ratio (LTV) is 80%, and a household with a medium monthly income of 9520 yuanA pre -sale group of more than 667,600 yuan.Based on this price, the monthly mortgage loan repayment amount is as high as 2856 yuan, which remains within the 30%MSR limit.
If you choose a 30 -year period, a 75%LTV limit, and a commercial bank loan with the same interest rate, under the premise of sufficient money to pay 25%of the first phase, this family can buy a more expensive, price of up to 950,200 yuan,Selling or pre -sale houses will not exceed the upper limit of 30%MSR.However, if this interest rate rises to 4.25%(the current five -year fixed interest rate mortgage loan supporting interest rate), this household can buy a house with no more than 774,000 yuan.
"Unable to afford" and "can't get" and "can't get"
The demand for housing pre -sale groups has been strong, and the purchase rate has increased from 2.2 times in 2018 to 4.1 times in 2021.
The government has planned to increase the supply of 100,000 new pre -order groups from 2021 to 2025. It has also adjusted the quota of the HDB project that retains the first subscribers, and increased the quota of the three -bedroom unit to 85 to 85%, Four -bedroom and larger room -type units to 95%, so that the young couple applied for the first time can have higher opportunities and get pre -order groups in non -mature town.
The competition for pre -order groups in mature cities and towns has always been fierce.In August 2022, the four -bedroom -style units of the two projects of the Central Weave and Danbinni's Sun Plaza Spring were excessive subscriptions of 7.9 times and 16.1 times, respectively.In November last year, Li Zhisheng, Minister of Development, pointed out in a written question from the members of Congress that during the three years from 2019 to 2021, the success rate for pre -order houses for mature cities and towns for the first time was 20%to 24%.Among the first -time home buyers who successfully applied for mature town pre -order groups, only more than 2%of families had applied more than five times.
In fact, when everyone discusses housing burden, often avoids a problem, that is, "ideal" and "affordable" housesSon, how to choose between the two.The question of whether housing can affordable is often confused by the expectations of individuals who do not match.
When applying for a pre -order group, "can't afford it" and "cannot get" are also two different issues, and should not be confused.During the process of buying a house, the first purchase family should adjust the mentality and be more flexible. When choosing a group of houses, do not insist on buying the most ideal and perfect place and characteristics.In addition to the consideration of personal income and mortgage payment capabilities, if you can try to find a suitable pre -sale group housing in projects in non -mature towns, it will be more practical. It will not delay the family plan because of missed opportunities again and again.
Buying a house is a long -term investment in a large amount of funds. It must be done, not too persistent, and make emotional wrong choices.For ordinary families, luxury private apartments are still more expensive house types, and they may still be more affordable options.If you can take a step back to buy a suitable group, the problem of burden has become unrelated.
The author is the National University of Singapore
Lecture professor at the Director of the Department of Real Estate of the Business School
The article only represents the author's personal point of view
When discussing the burden on housing, they often avoid a problem, that is, "ideal" and "affordable" houses, how to choose between the two.The question of whether housing can affordable is often confused by the expectations of individuals who do not match.
