At present, you should change to a path. By protecting private property, distributed fairness, and opportunities to liberate productivity fairly, resolve people's grievances, awaken the awareness of investment in market players, and start a new situation and go out of the siege.
Zeng Yongchang
The bottleneck of China's economic recovery is protecting private property, distributed fairness, and opportunities.What we need to do now is to resolve the resentment of the people's livelihood, repay the power of the market, and reach the reform consensus of the transformation of government functions.
The changes in two seasons around the Spring Festival this year have proved that China has been unable to go through the old road to focus on the economy.Before the Spring Festival, the central government of the mainland government hoped that the economy would recover its vitality rapidly, and solemnly gave the private economy "two unshakable" commitments to quickly unblock the prevention and control of the epidemic to make social life fully turn normal, and then urged the central ministries and commissions and governments at all levels to work overtime.Add a lot of projects to activate the economy, but the market is normal.Although Xiao Yangchun, who has been lost for a long time, has no "revenge growth", and "spring breeze" has not been able to stop, just like a roller coaster, "spring cold".As a result, this agent medicine that is currently focusing on the economy and the economy is a bit wrong with the national conditions.
Some people now always take the Spring Festival travel, lower library, and watch movies as evidence of the market, expected strong, and confidence.In fact, it is not an era when you ca n’t eat enough or not. During the Spring Festival, traveling, down the restaurant, and watching movies are the basic life needs, not to mention it has been sealed for so long!This can only show that the basic life is returning to normal.Judging from the consumption confidence of ordinary people is not to see the door, eat, and watch movies, but to watch the purchase of consumption in white wine, car, cosmetics, real estate, etc.But looking at these aspects, the situation has not improved.
Judging what the company's confidence is looking at, not to see a few more orders and profitability, but to look at the enthusiastic return of investment and the expectations of re -entrepreneurship.However, the January Business Confidence Index (BCI) showed that the foresight index of the enterprise investment not only improved, but the month -on -month decreased by 0.36 to 53.63, indicating that private investment will still be at a low position in a short period of time.The demand for strong currency supply and disadvantaged entities itself is a market problem.
Where can this be favorable to the market, it is bound to recover?
Needless to say, the two basic judgments before the Chinese mainstream Spring Festival are wrong.In the past, the economic market sank, and the words were pushed to epidemic prevention.Now the epidemic control has been released, and the Spring Festival holiday has passed. Residents' lives have completely returned to normal, and social production has quickly moved to the right track.However, the problems of exports, cars, and real estate are all unsolved. The people still tighten their wallets, but they are unwilling to cooperate with the government to engage in internal circulation.The sinking of the economic market is definitely related to epidemic prevention, but the Chinese economic market sinks into the city. Obviously, it has not seized the essence of the lack of confidence in the Chinese market, weak investment, and weak consumption.
I used to think that the economy sinking was because the government's work was not focused on the economy, and it was pushed by the country and the people.However, in December last year, the Central Committee of the Central Economic Work Conference took the lead in insisting on "two unshakables", and urged local governments and central ministries and commissions to implement the spirit of the meeting after the meeting.Basically, it has been done.But so far in all aspects of unreasonable things in various aspects, one after another, the more and more problems, and the expectations of the internal circulation are far from the central government.From this point of view, the judgment of this policy selection did not seize the essence of the problem.
The previous judgment fault was flickering the current new national conditions.Today, as far as enterprises are concerned, the government has long -term replacement of the market, forced orders, and mismatched resources to cause corporate confidence; as far as ordinary people are concerned, the government has long been setting up the "four big mountains" for a long time, ignoring the people's livelihood, excessive obtaining, and overwhelming people's confidence.
To be honest, behind the company is still unwilling to invest, it is a distrust of the government's aspiration of market players.
In recent years, the government's leapfrog development and curve overtaking. They have not regarded enterprises as enterprises for a long time.In recent years, the government's public -private partnership has not regarded private enterprises as private enterprises, and private enterprises have worked hard for a lifetime. In the end, they can't even keep the property.In these years, the economy is to fight the project, and the projects are mostly unrelated to the current demand, such as the state -owned public cafeteria, supply and marketing cooperatives, etc., or it is idle.In the industry, the more you do, the more you do it, you will die.
The people who are still reluctant to consume are the resistance to the debt of government people's livelihood.The people have been hollowed out by houses, education, medical care, and pension, but the economy of the economy in 2023 is still houses and cars, which has nothing to do with improving people's livelihood.Therefore, although the central government turned on the green light across the entire line, not only did it not stimulate the demand for buying a house and reducing the disconnection of the family, but even the property houses in the city also joined the bad tail building team.In the past, the house slave was interrupted, and the real estate was so bad that the real estate was soil.Now it is the government's interest rate cut and the first payment, but the new wave of "malicious loan repayment" is triggered, which makes the government difficult.The people are not afraid to repay the mortgage in advance, but the bank is dragging.The Economic Daily even comes out to help and criticize the people that "it is not advisable to pay off the mortgage in advance."The refraction of the "repayment of loans" is the continuous weakening of the overall economic expectations.Besides the car, the Spring Festival sales not only did not rebound, but also fell.In January, retail market retail fell 45%year -on -year; new energy passenger car manufacturers wholesale fell by 18%year -on -year, and the range was not small.
We cannot assume that enterprises and people are in information vacuum.Xinhua News Agency said that it was busy, using workers, and the labor market "released a strong signal of accelerating the pace of economic recovery". At the press conference of the National Office of the National New Office on February 2, Li Xingqian, director of the Department of Foreign Trade, said that 2023 said that 2023 said that 2023 said that 2023 said that 2023 said that 2023The global economic and trade situation has become extremely severe, and the downward pressure has increased significantly.The main contradictions in China's foreign trade field have transformed from the current supply chain and insufficient performance capacity of last year to weaken foreign demand and decline in orders.With less than 3%of China, foreign -funded enterprises have created nearly 50%of foreign trade, 25%of the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size, and 20%of tax revenue.The number of direct employment exceeded 45 million, accounting for more than 10%of the urban population.This is not the indirect employment brought by upstream and downstream related industries.Foreign demand, the decline in orders, or the evacuation of foreign capital.The Chinese economy depends on exports. Foreign demand for foreign demand and shrinking orders are ominous.
Now the balloon storm is even more worried about the Sino -US trade.In 2021, the total Sino -US trade was 488.86 billion yuan (about S $ 955 billion), which was more than the total of Japan and South Korea, Japan and South Korea.If China and the United States are decoupled, although both parties will bear losses, this loss is not equal.For the United States, the cost of searching for imports is temporary for the cost of undertaking the transfer of the industrial chain; and China has lost market, taxes, fiscal revenue, and job positions.This loss is long -term.
We must see that the advantages are not to say, indispensable, but the disadvantage is unavailable.On the one hand, people are helpless to recover the real estate, automobiles, and exports. On the one hand, the local government has a strange recruitment crisis, promoting medical insurance reforms, civil servants who buy urban investment bonds, bank bankruptcy "three kinds of no compensation", etc.The market is expected to be full of indignation.If these bottlenecks are not broken, it may be empty words to grasp the economy.
In short, the economy has the laws of economy, grasping the economy and the demand for the economy, no input -output, regardless of cost income, or going to the old road of extended development — to fight on the project and the stalls.No new situation in the Chinese economy.At present, you should change to think. By protecting private property, distribution of fairness, and opportunities to liberate productivity fairly, resolve the people's grievances, and awaken the awareness of the market entity investment, to start a new situation and go out of the siege.
China wants to reverse market confidence and move towards the economic recovery. There are still many basic skills to practice.However, if the reform consensus of the government's functional transformation can be achieved, it is likely that the current passive is active in the future.
The author is a retired economist in Sichuan China
