Peng Nian
The Philippine President President Presks Kats, less than a month after visiting China at the beginning of the year, US Secretary of Defense Austin visited the Philippines with important tasks.This visit can be described as fruitful. Austin not only met with Marcos, but also successfully convinced the Philippines to open four military bases to the US military.At this point, as many as nine Philippine military bases have been opened to the U.S. military.The two sides also agreed to expand the US -Philippine strengthening cooperation agreement signed in 2014.According to the agreement, the U.S. military can conduct joint training, deploy equipment and build military facilities at the Philippine military base.
From June 2020, former Philippine President Duterte suddenly suspended the U.S.-Philippine visiting forces agreement. By November 2021, it was announced that the Joint Vision for A Twenty-FIRST Century United States-Philippines Partnership, and then restored the Balikatan military exercise in April 2022. The US -Philippine relations swept the previous downturn and sang all the way.
Subsequently, Presidential Candidate Presidential Candidate, who is far ahead and the most promising to win, said that during the campaign, he said that "will maintain the national and the United States alliance ... the military agreement between the United States and the Philippines is beneficial to both countries.The alliance between the two countries is a special relationship. The United States can do a lot of things to help the Philippines ... "In May of the same year, Magaks first visited the United States less than half a year after election, actively promoting the increase in US -Philippine relations.
Austin's visit to the Philippines is not a routine business, but a substantial upgrade of US -Philippine military cooperation, intending to make the Philippines an important part of the United States in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.
This seems to confirm the previous speculation that after Duterte's steps down, the Philippine foreign policy will inevitably turn.Perhaps as the Philippine scholar Joseph Ching Velasco published a paper published last year, the Philippine policy of the Philippines to China: the competition and domestic politics' China POLICY: Great Powers and DOLITITICS) It is increasingly increasingDifferent domestic differences and lack of strong domestic support are difficult to lay a solid foundation for the long -term pro -Chinese policy of the Philippines.Duterte's Foreign Policy can only be understood as an exception, not a model.
There are at least two layers of meanings in this: 1. The Philippines's bias China's foreign policy lacks long -term and strong public opinion support, so it is short and difficult to maintain; second, the Philippine foreign policy will returnDon't kiss.From this perspective, whether it is Aquino III's Downty's Foreign Policy, or Duterte's anti -American foreign foreign policy, it is an exception of Philippine foreign policy and is very state.
Magaks is pulling the Filipino foreign policy back to normal, intending to maintain a cautious balance between China and the United States.On the one hand, he does not want to follow Duterte's hostile policy to the United States, expect to maintain a close relationship with the United States in the field of military cooperation in national security.On the other hand, he also continued Duterte's friendly relations and close economic cooperation with China, and attracted China to invest in the Philippines to promote economic recovery and infrastructure construction.This can be seen from his visit to the United States and China after taking office.
However, in the current Sino -US strategic competition, and the severe internal and external environment where domestic nationalist moods are rising, the Sino -US balance of Sino -US balance is facing severe tests.For example, the military base talked about by the Visiner's visit to the Philippines this time has attracted great attention from China.In particular, there are speculation that of the four military bases opened by the Philippines to the United States, there are Luzon Island bases near Taiwan and Barawang Island base near the South China Sea.Considering that the United States is currently provoking China in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, China is extremely sensitive and worried about the targeted and purposeful military cooperation between neighboring countries and the United States.To a certain degree of negative emotions, it will be transmitted to bilateral relations, which will adversely affect the normal communication between the two countries, especially economic and trade cooperation.
Therefore, the Philippines needs to accurately grasp the limit of US -Philippine defense cooperation and where is China's acceptance.In other words, if the Philippines hopes that its China -US balance technique can be played, it is necessary to seriously consider the development of the United States within the acceptable range of China (or above the bottom line), and reduce the impact effect of the US -Philippine cooperation on China -Philippine relations tolowest.If you accidentally slide to the track of Akino III, you will lose it.
But from the current point of view, the Philippines still keeps awake and emphasizes that military cooperation with the United States "does not target any specific third party."This is also one of the key prerequisites for the Philippines's cautious practice.
In addition, how to effectively control the dispute between the South China Sea and avoid the rebound of domestic public opinion is also an old problem for Martis to maintain a balance between China and the United States.On the one hand, it is necessary to maintain a strategic determination and maintain the boundaries between normal military cooperation with US military cooperation and intervention in the United States to compete in China in the South China Sea; on the other hand, the Philippine Opposition Party uses the South China Sea issue to gather public opinion, and pressure pony can be used to pressure the pony Keke.The Sri Lanka and the Philippines must also maintain a balance before they meet the people's opinion and avoid the heating of the South China Sea.For example, recently, the rumor reef laser lighting incident, which has been rushing, has created noise for the overall situation of the South China Sea.Especially in the public development of Indonesia, in the positive atmosphere of the South China Sea Code of Conduct, the Philippines is incompatible.
In short, in the context of the current "hot war" of the great power competition and the "population" of domestic public opinion, small and medium -sized countries, including the Philippines, will face more and more difficulties in implementing the balanced diplomacy of large powers.This requires the country's helm to be sober, cautious, and flexible.As Xiaomakus said at the Davos World Economic Forum in 2023, the situation in the South China Sea made people unsteady at night, and they must continue to pay attention to understand the situation and respond.Because of a little carelessness, the Philippines' Sino -US balance will slip into the dangerous situation of imbalance.
The author is Hainan Normal University in China
Executive Deputy Dean of the Institute of National Guobei Research Institute
