Guo Liangping column
The high -speed development of China's 30 years of reform and opening up first benefits from the industrial transfer and free trade policies of developed capitalist countries under globalization.A large number of foreign trade has caused the overpopulation that has troubled China for hundreds of years, becoming a dividend of the population overnight, and also turning China into a world factory overnight, provided that it is integrated into the world capitalist system.In 2022, the population declined for the first time since the Great Famine in the 1960s, causing a considerable degree of panic.Considering that China is rapidly entering an aging society, this seems to be a double mighty sign that worsening, and even some mainstream economists in the West began to predict that China can never surpass the United States in terms of economic aggregate.
In 2022, the number of deaths in China exceeded the number of births, causing a total population to decrease by 800,000.In January this year, India officially became the world's largest population, earlier than expected, and this trend will continue: China has released the second child in 2016, and then it will be fully let go.No effect was received.For every 1,000 people in 2021, 7.52 babies were born in China, 11.06 in the United States, and 16.42 in India. Even Britain was far exceeding China, with 10.08.China's decreased population and aging era have arrived at the same time.
However, the decrease in population should be dividends.China fully implemented a one -child policy in 1980. At that time, the population was 980 million, which was considered an unbearable burden.In fact, when the population reached 800 million in the early 1970s, the government felt tremendous pressure.At that time, Mao Zedong said, "800 million people, do you not fight?" According to the idea at that time, the population began to decline from 1.4 billion. Although it was too late, it should still be a good thing.
This should be the same.We can do such an ideological test: China's GDP (GDP) was 121 trillion yuan (RMB, about $ 18 trillion, the same below) in 2022. It was 367.9 billion yuan (US $ 218.5 billion) in 1978 (US $ 218.5 billion).; In 2022, the Chinese population was 1.4118 billion, and 956 million in 1978; the per capita GDP was 385 yuan (229 US dollars) in 1978, and by 2022, it reached 85,724 yuan ($ 2745).(Edit: According to the exchange rate of the year)
Assume that productivity is unchanged -production mode and technology will be difficult to retreat once it is formed, and the total population is sharply reduced to the level of 1978. According to the per capita output value of 2022, it is calculated. China's GDP still has 83 83A trillion yuan (1.231 trillion US dollars, about 50%of the US GDP in 2022), only retreating to the level of 2017.In the average population of 8.3 trillion yuan to 956 million yuan, the per capita is 86,820 yuan, which is higher than 85,724 yuan in 2022.
In other words, after the population is reduced, the per capita GDP increases when the productivity remains unchanged.Productivity is usually increased. As long as its growth is higher than the United States, although the population has declined sharply, the total economic volume will surpass the United States sooner or later.To expand the economic scale by growing population, it will bring many negative effects.
Decreased population can alleviate the pressure on the natural environment and resources; the source of pollution is reduced, and it does not need to import so many energy sources, which can be replaced with self -produced renewable energy sources.Transportation can be less blocked, and the housing is more spacious and cheaper. The pressure of competition in the labor and human resources market will be relatively reduced. It will even promote technological progress to make up for labor shortages, thereby increasing productivity.These are bonus, and they are also unable to achieve under capitalist logic.Capitalism is like drugs, and it is natural to become natural after addiction.
The decreasing population is the common phenomenon of developed countries, and now China has also joined their ranks prematurely.The reason is that capitalist production methods and values have completely changed the instinct of human beings for thousands of years. Personal burdens and enjoyment rather than families have become the main pursuit.It can be said that this is a vicious cycle caused by a deliberate capitalist: In order to consume does not lag behind neighbors, you must work hard to make more money, so the pressure of life continues to increase, which makes you unwilling to bear the responsibility of raising the next generation.
The root cause of low fertility rates is the huge change of social lifestyle and values -contemporary Chinese people who have been with them for thousands of years are no longer the same species.motivation.The traditional logic of "multi -child and more blessing" is completely unreasonable. The pension system of individuals is changing the traditional family relationship.
Consumption -driven economic growth is essentially capitalist.Consumption is determined by income, and the income of ordinary people is undergoing increasing pressure.This pressure is symbiosis with capitalism, and has continued to increase with technological progress.When artificial intelligence (AI) fully replaces the labor force, it is the time when the production method of capitalist production is died.The country that prepared this can be able to settle first and move towards the post -capitalism.
The essence of socialism is beyond market logic.Do another ideological test: According to the total population of the median per capita income, you can get the total needs of the society. This actual demand is always less than the market demand with the ability to pay, and the capitalist production is arranged according to the latter. This is arranged. This is arranged. This is arranged.That is why there are crisis of excess production, a large amount of production capacity and a large number of foods and other necessities of life are destroyed, and a large number of just built buildings have been blown up.
China's countermeasures to cope with the economic crisis and the decline in population are almost different from capitalist countries -de -production capacity and encourage fertility, the purpose is to support market demand, not to meet social needs.Encourage consumption to be restricted by employment, and employment is restricted by technological progress.This follows the logic of capitalist: the reduction of population reduction will damage productivity because the development of productivity is subject to market capacity, and the latter mainly depends on the increase in the number of employment.Once the employment decreases, the market will shrink, causing artificially selling production capacity to restore the balance of supply and demand in the market.Decreased labor force also causes the adverse change of the population proportion of taxpayers and pensions, which may lead to fiscal bankruptcy and social turmoil.
From the perspective of global perspective, the policy that encourages fertility has not been successful in any country.The structural reasons are all contributed by capitalism: the worldview and values of the individualism, especially consumerism; the vocational women who have been educated; the heavy burden of work pressure and raising the next generation; urbanization and commercialization lead to lifestyle and social cultureChanges, etc.A large amount of absorption of immigrants to support labor can cause social conflicts and political turmoil, and welfare countries will lead to financial and debt problems.
