Source: United News Network
Author: Liao Qihong
In recent years, the US -China, high -tech, chip warfare smoke has permeated.Since Meng Wanzhou, the director of Huawei Finance in 2018, was charged with the theft of commercial secrets and violated the Iranian sanctions ban, the United States continued to strengthen its high -tech enterprises to block China.The latest progress was that in December last year, the US Department of Commerce included 36 Chinese companies in the entity list; this year, the Lunar New Year has successfully persuaded Japan and South Korea to join the ban on sale to China.This series of actions not only made the competition between China and the United States, but also made it difficult for countries to be sandwiched in the middle of the two strongs.
For a series of sanctions in the United States, there are two extreme comments in the media: some comments are singing and declining Huawei or China's high -tech development. It is believed that the development of Huawei and Chinese chips cannot afford to fall to the ground;The development of Huawei and Chinese chips will not be defeated.The author tries to provide a rational and objective perspective of third parties from the history of the economic and trade war.
First of all, as far as the United States is concerned, the long -term trade deficit of the United States, the long -term exchange rate control of China, the power of the country to carry out industrial subsidies, and the political expansion of politics, it has developed the national security and international status of the United States.threaten.In addition, globalization has reached the end. After the Russian and Ukraine War, many people were surprised that free trade had no way to prevent the war from the war; therefore, the trade had undergone qualitative changes.High walls, that is, the era of high cost and regional production.
This has also made many European countries (such as the Netherlands) from swinging from the originally swinging position to the ranks of anti -Chinese -led in the United States.
As far as China is concerned, Huawei is on the cusp of the wind. The revenue in 2021 has fallen by nearly 30 %, and the mobile phone business is almost shock;Sanctions to obtain high -end chips and chip equipment.In 2022, he stabilized a little, but the production line was still violently affected.The first is the mobile phone business. The smartphone launched by Huawei in 2021 does not support 5G, which is obviously lacking in advanced chips.
In addition, many 4G related technologies and products, the sixth generation and seventh -generation wireless technology, artificial intelligence and efficient computer technology and even cloud products are greatly hindered.Huawei was also forced to sell some businesses, and many people thought that Huawei had lost.
In the historical trade war, the crisis often became an opportunity for the transformation of the national industry in sanctions.In the 1980s's car war, the Japanese side voluntarily obeyed the export quota, limiting the total export vehicles must not exceed 10,000 vehicles.However, not only did Japanese car manufacturers not reduce investment or production costs, but increased their capital, investing high -quality and high -equipped cars; ACURA and Lexus appeared in the 1980s.Instead, trade sanctions have greatly improved the quality of Japanese cars, making it difficult for American cars to be rival in Japan in the 1990s.
Nowadays, China and the United States are highly loud. In the face of the United States, Huawei has responded to a pattern: increasing R & D investment.In the "2022 EU Industrial R & D Investment Brand", Huawei's R & D accounts for 22%of total revenue, which is the fourth largest in global enterprises, second only to Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft.Of course, Huawei's oversupply investment is indispensable, but such a decision is still a rare pattern in global companies.
The next five years are the critical autumn of China's high -tech industry. When facing the regulations of the US Department of Commerce, the enclosure of the American allies, the weakness of the global economy, and the lack of domestic demand.The best situation of Huawei is "small losses".If Huawei can survive in such a dangerous situation, it may be greatly improved after the trade war like the Japanese automobile industry.
The author is a visiting professor at the Department of Economics of the University of California Davis and chief of the California State Government Research
