Source: Beijing Youth Daily
On the one hand, the interest rate of bank deposits has been continuously reduced, and the scale of deposits of Chinese residents on the other side has soared significantly.Resident deposits have become hot topics recently.According to the latest data released by the People's Bank of China recently, in January 2023, RMB deposits of RMB China increased by 6.87 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.05 trillion yuan year -on -year. Among them, household deposits increased by 6.2 trillion yuan, a single month's record high.In fact, residents' deposits in 2022 have increased significantly. Last year, resident deposits increased by 17.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 8 trillion yuan over 9.9 trillion yuan in 2021. Among themThe deposit increased by 13.81 trillion.
Behind over deposits is a change in the investment behavior of residents
Through the data of residential income expenditure released last year released by the Bureau of Statistics, combined with last year's resident loan and residential purchase, CICC Research reported that last year's financial assets of residents increased compared with 2021, but the increase was relatively limited.Beyond the trend value, this has a large contrast with the significant growth of resident deposits last year.
So how did these over -deposits formed?Li Xue analyzed by CICC's fixed income analyst pointed out that last year's financial assets of residents did increase, mainly because residents took the initiative to reduce some consumption expenditure under the pressure of downward economic downward pressure, and the loan demand was insufficient.There is also a decline in purchase expenditure, which has led to an increase in the scale of the entire resident's financial assets.But in fact, as a whole, the increase in financial assets of residents is not so large, and it does not significantly exceed the trend value. This is only the main factor."The main factor may be that when the resident department is doing financial asset allocation, it has reduced the allocation of assets such as stocks, wealth management and public funds, and increased the proportion of deposits."
"We understand the main changes in resident investment behavior." China Jinyan reported that last year, the stock market was relatively weak, the bank's financial management income was limited, and there were two obvious net worth retreats.In the case of a limited increase in overall financial assets, the residents' departments have allocated their assets to bank deposits, especially regular deposits, and significantly reduce the distribution of assets such as stocks, public funds and bank wealth management.It can be seen through the trend of new deposits, wealth management and public fund -raising funds by investigating residents. Although the growth of wealth management and public funds has slowed significantly, the growth of the overall financial assets of the household department has not significantly exceeded the trend value.
Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst at Huading Securities, also believes that the growth of 17.9 trillion residents in 2022 is mainly reflected as a significant increase in regular deposits. It may reflect the decline in housing prices in 2022+stock bear market+wealth management redemption.In the situation, residents are forced to use regular deposits as an option for asset allocation.Behind the large increase in regular deposits may be the change of residential asset allocation.Residents' asset allocation can be simply divided into five major items: real estate, stocks, securities investment funds, financial management, and regular deposits.In 2022, house prices represented by new commercial housing prices in 70 major and medium-sized cities turned year-on-year, ending the continuous rise of house prices from 2016 to 2021; the Shanghai Composite Index fell 550 points, ending the three-year bull market since 2019; opening up;The net value of public fund -raising funds fell from 30%in 2020 and 2021 to 0%; wealth management faced redemption disturbances, and the net rate of breaking rates increased significantly.
The increase in deposits is not because residents do not buy a house or buy a stock
Recently, many analysis believes that the surge in residents' deposits reflects the strong willingness to save residents, unwilling to consume, nor to buy a house and stock trading.Zhang Wenlang, the chief macro analyst of CICC, believes that the main reason for the significant increase in residents' deposits is not "saving", nor is the residents who do not buy a house or buy a stock.
Zhang Wenlang pointed out that, first of all, residents' purchase and stock purchase is the whereabouts of deposits, not the source of deposits.Secondly, if residents use deposits to purchase second -hand housing or buy stocks in the secondary market, this process only occurs in the internal transfer of residents' deposits, that is, the deposit of the buyer's residents into the deposit of the seller's residents does not affect the residents of the whole society.Total deposit.If the residents buy a new house or make a new IPO, although the resident deposit transfer to the corporate deposit, in this case, the increase in corporate income may leadEssenceConversely, if residents do not purchase new housing and new shares, the loan behavior may weaken, and social deposits may decline and may not rise.For example, from 2013 to 2015, when the growth rate of the sales area of commercial housing continued to decline, the growth rate of personal deposits of residents also declined; after the growth rate of the sales area of commercial housing in the second half of 2016, the growth rate of residents' deposits also declined.
Excess savings are not as much as everyone thinks
The scale of "the" excess savings "under different definitions is not consistent, but whether it is to include the balance of wealth management into statistics, or to calculate the poor growth rate of residents 'income and expenditure, it reflects the obvious' excess savings in 2022 in 2022'. "CITIC Securities chief economist clearly pointed out in the report that the source of excess savings includes three aspects: one is the increasing uncertainty of asset value and income level, and residents tend to be more savings; second, the real estate industry is the real estate industry.The influence of risks, the willingness to buy a house in the residential department has been reduced, and the potential purchase of the household -purchase allocation has been transferred to savings. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, the lack of consumer scenarios has also made residential consumption expenditure significantly lower than the potential scale since 2022.Third, with the optimization of the epidemic prevention policy at the end of 2022, the increase in real estate support, and the improvement of economic expectations, the bond market yields have been significantly up, and the net financial management value is generally damaged, which has led investors to redeem financial management to deposits.
Earlier, many market participants believed that the increase of 8 trillion yuan of residents' deposits last year was "excess savings", which could promote it to consume.However, after clarifying the difference between "savings" and "deposit", this statement is obviously not accurate.
Zhongjin Company Lin Yingqi, Xu Hongming, etc. pointed out in the research report that there are overestimated views of the "excess savings" scale of about 8 trillion yuan because the impact of bank wealth management products and income increases are not considered.They estimate that the scale of "excess savings" in 2022 may be around 3 trillion yuan, while residents 'deposit increases by about 4 trillion yuan from wealth management products to deposit contributions, and 1 trillion yuan is contributed by the natural growth of residents' income (assume that residents are assumed that residentsThe savings rate is the same as in 2021).
deposits and savings are not the same thing
In the eyes of many people, "deposits" and "savings" are a concept, but from the perspective of financial professionalism, they are actually two different things.
The research report of CICC introduced a simple thinking framework from the perspective of the capital flow sheet.For the residential department, the disposable income of that year minus consumer expenditure, which formed the savings of the resident department that year. The savings here did not refer to the deposit.The savings of the residents are generally divided into two parts. Some of the house purchase form physical real estate investment, and some are used to form financial assets, including savings deposits, bank wealth management and funds.Based on the financial system from the financial system, you can get a simple formula: new resident deposits+new financial management+new other financial assets ≈ The disposable income of the year-consumer expenditure+new resident loan-house purchase expenditure.
The left side of the above formula represents the changes in financial assets of the residents, and the right is a calculation from the perspective of resident income expenditure. Of course, due to the statistical errors and other factors of various factors, the left and right sides are usually different.The trend should be consistent.
Simply speaking, the residents did not spend their income, which constitutes savings, and residents' deposits are only part of savings.Earlier, many analysis mixed residents' deposits with residents' savings. It was believed that the increase in residents' deposits was an increase in residents' savings. In the case of no significant increase in disposable income, the only reason was that residents' consumption expenditure was reduced.Such analysis is obviously not accurate enough, because when residents' deposits increase, residents' savings may not increase, and residents' consumptionIt is not necessarily reduced, but also needs to analyze the actual situation of each item.
Another research report of CICC states that from the perspective of historical data, the "savings rate" rising does not correspond to the rise in deposits.For example, in 2020 when the savings rate increased sharply, the growth rate of residents 'deposits did not increase; in the first quarter of 2020, the most severe increase in residential savings rates, the growth rate of residents' deposits also declined.
CITIC Securities 'Mingming Bond Research Team also stated in the research report that savings deposits are not exactly equivalent to savings. With the development of the financial market, more and more low -risk financial products are replacing deposits into a tool for residents' wealth storage.Therefore, in theory, even if there is no excess savings, other financial assets "transfer" to deposits will lead to a higher increase in savings deposits.
Forecast
How many residents' deposits will be used for consumption, buying houses and stocks this year?
After the highest monthly record in January, whether residents' deposits will continue to rise, and which areas may release to which areas may be the focus of market attention.
Lin Yingqi, CICC, pointed out that "over -savings" mainly come from regular deposits. Among the new residential deposits in 2022, 83%of regular deposits accounted for 83%.EssenceIf the interest loss limit is considered, the scale of 3 trillion yuan "excess savings" can be released in 2023, which is about 1.5 trillion yuan, which is equivalent to 3%of the year's social retail.In income expectations, asset price expectations, income distribution, etc.
Liu Lei, Secretary -General of the National Financial and Development Laboratory State Assets and Agreement Research Center, believes that excess savings have nothing to do with future consumption and investment.Residents' consumption and investment in 2023 will increase, mainly due to the release of the epidemic and the increase in confidence in the recovery of future economic growth, not due to excess savings.In other words, even if residents 'consumption expenditures increase and increase housing investment expenditure, they will still not change the trend of expansion of residents' deposits and loans.
For potential digestion paths such as consumption, real estate and financial investment, there are three views: First, it is not advisable to increase the boost of excess savings on consumption.Second, whether the excess savings can be successfully released to the real estate industry and stimulating real estate sales is that the improvement of residents' confidence in delivery and the expected judgment of the real estate wealth effect.A long -term constraint, the scale of excess savings to the real estate industry is limited; third, the residents' excess savings cannot enter the field of consumption and real estate in the short term, considering that the current financial assets have a certain configuration after the adjustment has been adjusted,After the value, we believe that some excess savings are likely to flow into the capital market in the future.
Guosheng Securities also believes that the consumption, property market and financial markets are expected to benefit, but the specific digestive path and rhythm will depend on residents' wishes to repair and asset return expectations.From the perspective of stock, defensive savings are more dependent on pessimistic expectations for future income. This will directly restrict residents' real estate, durable goods purchase, and potential consumption upgrades.Flowing more to consumption and property market; from the perspective of an incremental perspective, historical experience shows that the correlation of new savings and investment is often more significant, while the correlation with consumption is relatively weak, reflecting the marginal adjustment of the willingness to save savings.The willingness of investment willingness is more direct.The specific manifestations of investment willingness restoration often depend on the demonstration effect of making money. This round is expected to benefit the stock market.
