Source: Zhongshi Electronic News
Wangbao Society Review
Following the 4th American fighter shot down the Chinese balloon on the 4th, the United States and Canada joined forces to shot down the source, goals, and unknown "air objects" over the 10th and 11th, respectively. Although it has not been confirmedThe mutual trustworthy US -China relations have accelerated the spiral fall.Under the disability of the crisis processing mechanism, the only way to resume the high -level communication channels between the two parties as soon as possible, but the hostility of the two countries is currently rising, and the domestic political pressure is strong. It is difficult to take the initiative to ride a tiger in Washington or Beijing.
Washington and Beijing ride tigers
Balloon storm occurs at the most sensitive and worst time. Secretary of State Brills is forced to delay to visit China.Destroyed once.US -China relations were extremely fragile. In addition, factors such as misjudgment, accidents, and domestic political struggle intervention broke out at the same time, forming the "perfect storm" of US -China relations.
President Bayeng published the "National Love Counseling" on the 7th, reiterating to compete with China without conflict. It is willing to cooperate with China to promote the interests of the United States and benefit the world.He also said, "Those who are gambling with the United States are realizing how outrageous they are wrong, and gambling with the United States is never a good bet." The impassioned performance has won democracy and the Republican members of the two parties.It also shows that the United States and China are getting closer to the Cold War, and it will be difficult to turn back.
Instead of exploring the truth of the balloon incident and whether all parties responded, it is better to concern how to avoid US -China relations out of control, and then impact the security of the Indo -Pacific region and even the world order.Maintaining communication pipelines, effective management and control differences and risks are currently the most important foundation of US -China relations. It turns out that this foundation is not solid. In particular, there is serious obstacles to the military communication pipeline, making it difficult for the crisis treatment mechanism to exert the expected effect.The most urgent thing at present is how to rebuild mutual trust through high -level talks to stabilize the situation.
Perosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives in August last year, visited Taiwan. The mainland immediately canceled the call of the Chinese and American war zones, the Ministry of Defense of China and the United States, and the Sino -US maritime military safety consultation mechanism meeting.Although the Minister of Defense Austin and Wei Fenghe in Cambodia in Cambodia last November, China has always refused to restore the normal dialogue mechanism of the two armies. After this balloon incident, the Chinese side rejected Austen and Wei Feng's suggestion, making crisis treatment more difficultEssenceThe most worrying thing is that from the perspective of pure military security, the balloon incident is an unexpected accident and does not pose a immediately threatened.The warship is too close. If there is a safe and threatening accident or misjudgment in the future, how should the two sides respond.
Indo -Pacific countries are unwilling to choose the side station
On the other hand, although the US -China diplomatic channels can still be unblocked. Blinken and Wang Yi, director of the Central Foreign Affairs Office of the Mainland Government, had an emergency call on the 3rd, but obviously could not solve the problem, which continued to increase the incident.At present, the United States Congress and public opinion are highly conscious; Chinese leaders may hope that Sino -US relations can be controlled and fight for the time for the Chinese nation's rejuvenation, but they cannot lower their heads to the United States. In this political atmosphere, Brincken resumes its visit to the middle of the visit.For the United States and China, both will be regarded as a weak behavior, and the possibility is not high.
The only positive signs is that the US Treasury Minister Yellen, which handed over olive branches to China, means that the communication of improving the economic issues of the United States and China is very important. It is still intended to visit and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce welcomes it.The U.S. Treasurer's advance group is scheduled to go to the mainland this month to arrange for access. Whether she can go smoothly is still an undisclosed number. At least it has maintained the condition of a high -level communication between the two parties, and the conditions for improving the relationship between economic and trade relations to manufacture are favorable and stable.
From the perspective of the public theory and attitude of the United States and China, Huafu and Beijing will not actively improve the relationship with each other in the short term, but in any case, diplomacy is still the most important way to manage bilateral relations.He can continue to communicate with Wang Yi and create opportunities for restoration of access.
Balloon storms cause bilateral relations in the United States and China to be in crisis. None of the countries in the Indo -Pacific region hopes that the two major power of the United States and China can establish a constructive management difference mechanism. Do not be forced to choose the side station, and even become a battlefield for strategic competition in the United States and China.Taiwan, which is regarded as the "hottest spot" of the world's conflict, should also recognize the importance of the stability of the United States and China relations. Do more things that are beneficial to stable US -China relations.The consequences are very dangerous.
