Source: United News Network
Author: Shen Wenhe
In the history of the decline in the US economy, the inverted and short -term national debt yields are an important precursor indicator.Recently, this signal appeared again. On Thursday, the two -year yield and ten -year inversion of the US Treasury bonds hit the highest since 1980.Historical experience shows that in about 15 months after the long -term national debt yields are upside down, the United States will have a retracement of key economic indicators.After the emergence of the strongest upside -down signal, the discussion of whether the US economy is about to fall into a recession has once again aroused market attention.
Honestly, in the early stages of economic recession in the history of the United States, there are indeed long -term and short -term national bond yields inverted shadow.Observing the logic behind this phenomenon also needs to be talked about from the factors of long -term national debt yields.Treasury yields are actually compensation for investors' future uncertainty.Generally speaking, the longer the investment time, the higher the yield, because investors face higher uncertainty and greater opportunities, and require higher yields to make up for the liquidity of losses and possible risk exposure.Therefore, the yield of long -term government bonds should be theoretically higher than the short term.
The main cause of this phenomenon may have a great relationship with the Fed's interest rate hikes and US Treasury investors on future economic growth expectations.First, from the perspective of the driving factors, the Federal Sunday rate hikes raising the benchmark interest rate, the liquidity in the market is narrowed, and investors sell short -term bonds to ensure their yields; second, the impact of the official continuous interest rate hikes in higher inflation and currency officials,The market's optimistic expectations for economic growth are constantly eaten, and the early warning signal of economic recession increases. Affected by the risk aversion, the market has insufficient confidence in investing in long -term government bonds.
But it is important to emphasize that the reason for judging the decline in the US economy may not be sufficient.Once the reason is clear, it is not difficult to find the path.Behind the upside -down yield of the strongest national bond in history, a large chance is the most obvious signal of the turnover of the Fed's monetary policy.After a strong interest rate hike, although U.S. inflation has not been fundamentally improved, it has eased.In December last year, the US core CPI was 5.7%year -on -year, while the three preliminary values exceeded 6%.
In the context of the ease of inflation, the market may be more concerned about the US economy entering the adjustment range.A proof is that the latest information of the US Supply Management Association (ISM) shows that the growth momentum of manufacturing in the United States is significantly insufficient. In January this year, the PMI of the US manufacturing industry was 47.40, compared with 48.40 in December last year, and November 49.00 last year, and even even Last year, even Last year, and even even, or even evenThere is also a decline.
For the association, this obviously puts them in a dilemma.On the one hand, the latest employment information of the Ministry of Labor gave them interest rates.But on the other hand, under the influence of no other systemic risks, the tide of hikes worldwide has come into an end this year.In the face of economic growth, the decision -making constraints faced by the Fed may become tighter.
The logic of causality is that although the reason for the short -term return of U.S. Treasury bonds is clear, so far, the US monetary policy has not been concluded from the public information to the conclusion of the US monetary policy.This needs to be further observed. What we need is to do a good job of pre -judgment and attach great importance to its impact on the global market after its monetary policy turns.
The author works in the investment banking industry
