Chen Yingzhu: If everyone does not act, who will dance in this time

Even if the Taiwan Strait War is eventually exempted, Sino -US relations that continue to be tight may cause a large amount of funds and talents to flow into the region.Essence

Ukrainian President Zelei Sky Dushu ran to Britain and France, and gave a speech to the EU Parliament.He is likely to receive fighters soon. In the case of Russia's unable to grasp the air excellence, some breakthroughs in the battle.But at the same time, the Russian army stepped up the offensive, and the adapted situation may soon change.

On the first anniversary of the Russia and Ukraine War, the world was talking about whether the war would end this year.Regardless of the complicated analysis, the author believes that there is only one key from the beginning -Putin's willingness.

The occurrence of many wars in history may stem from some small accidents, or maybe derived from the wrong decision under the limit of the times.As soon as the war was opened, it was difficult to end.However, all the initiatives of the Russian and Ukraine War were in Putin. In the era of development and various communication channels, he constructed a set of reasons for himself to be accepted for himself.It is also necessary to continue to destroy the lives of neighboring people, which can be described as modern tyrants.

How to end the war is far from the face of Russia and Ukraine. Instead, it is a wrong end to support the subsequent meaning of Putin's side meaning that Putin can satisfy the war that Putin can satisfy the war.If you ca n’t appreciate this, you can discuss the surrender of Ukraine, just like asking the United States to persuade Chiang Kai -shek to admit it during World War II, and then persuade the East British machine to see it.It is expensive.It was the hometown of appeasement.

The reason why Japan's war -invading war before attacking Southeast Asia touched the Southeast Asian Chinese Society, on the one hand, it was the same -origin, and more importantly, the injustice of the war was the occupation of the virtuality, not even the excuses.Another important reason is that the geographical is close, which makes the Southeast Asian colonial government restless.

Just like the psychological impact of the Russian and Ukraine War on the Eastern European countries, today Southeast Asian countries have also begun to feel particularly particularly impressed by the possible Taiwan Strait War.

The two Sino -U.S. The two strongs in the global market and the western Pacific territory are increasingly heating up. People are common in common. During the period, all kinds of seemingly eased or even possible turns are to avoid direct conflict performances.From the Trump administration to the Bayeng government, the Republican and Democratic parties have established the perception of ideology and system confrontation in the United States and China.A large number of discussions have shown that the United States has determined that the political system of the mainland government will not change. It is impossible for both parties to have a day in political discourse.A day of surviving.

This awakening is forcing the United States to think about the United States and the Democratic State Allies: When China is as strong as the United States, how much concession and change are willing to make in their own political and lifestyle, so as to maintain friendly relations with China, or at least not to be angry at all times.it?Originally, the psychological transition in this regard was like nothing in the active economic exchanges, and most politicians were even unwilling to think about it.Russia is regarded as a "systemic opponent". It is like no longer insisting on gaining cheap and natural gas in Russia, and no longer in the economy -in -chief view of China and Russia who used to be the leader of the Communist group.

This is also the key to the war of the Taiwan Strait War as soon as the Russian and Ukraine War started.After more than 70 years of peace and booming, the world is probably reluctant to face this harsh situation that is becoming realistic.The situation of the Taiwan Strait and Ukraine is completely different, and the military power of both sides of the strait is much more elite than Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, it is conceivable that whether there is foreign aid in Taiwan or not, as long as it resists, the two strait casualties must be more heavier than Russia and Ukraine.

For the neighboring Southeast Asia, the Taiwan Strait War is bound to cause the South China Sea Channel to be blocked, and the traffic in Northeast Asia is completely broken.Because the United States and Japan could not participate in the war, the PLA did not have a chance to decide quickly.The delay of the war will make it impossible for mainland China to avoid the fire of war as Russia.If North Korea joins the strategy in Beijing, it is more likely to cause most of China's coastal lines to be threatened by the sea of fire.

Not long ago, the US think tank's soldiers deduced that the US -Japan -Taiwan coalition forces would eventually defeat the PLA's offense and attracted the attention of international media.However, various parameters can be added and subtracted, and the results will be very different.The war in the performer only knows why it happened too much, just like the Putin Group did not think of a comedian Zeleziski from where the Anti -Japanese War came from.

Singapore's Yusov Isa Eastern South Asian Research Center recently released the Southeast Asian situation report: 2023, for the fifth consecutive year, the people's perception and trust in the Southeast Asian people in the Southeast Asian people, as well as the views on the geopolitical issues of Southeast Asiainvestigation.The relatively large changes are that, as a whole, more people are more concerned about the situation of Southeast Asian countries in the competition between China and the United States.70 % of interviewees believe that the United States, Japan, India -Australian Alliance (QUAD) is a security guarantee for Asia in Asia; more and more people think that India may become another big country in the region of the region, because it is more willing to abide by international lawAs a responsible country; although India and Russia are long -term friendly countries, Prime Minister Modi is still willing to say "this is not the era of war" to Putin, showing that India can show her independent will in diplomacy.

China and the United States cannot change the political system for each other, even close or convergence.That is, as mentioned earlier, only before the collision, you can be armed into the best and strongest steel body. Once everyone does not play, can we ensure that the victory is finally won.

In the increasingly sinister future, maintaining neutrality and not selecting border stations is the consensus of the Asianan country.Only in the unity of Asan and the overall strength of the country, it is possible to maintain independence for a long time.As long as several major countries can always stand up, adhere to the independent route, control the right to speak and maintain peace.

Southeast Asia is an important area with young people and rising strength. The development of various fields is prosperous and the potential is unlimited.Even if the Taiwan Strait War is eventually exempted, the continuous and tight Sino -US relations may lead to a large amount of funds and talents in the region, just like non -communist countries during the Cold War can continue to wealth due to economic development.

Keeping neutral but not dodging, not being dodge, and not being retracted by pressure, Asian'an should have the strength and confidence to face an unpredictable future.If the globalization of 40 years is determined not to look back, you may continue to accept the world's great powers, dance a peaceful tango, and play in this emerging place.