Zhao Zhigang
2023 is the beginning of comprehensively implementing the 20th spirit of the Chinese government, the beginning of the start of the start of the start of socialist modern countries, and a key year for comprehensively promoting the "14th Five -Year Plan".In 2023, we need to work hard to fight for the economy, and in the middle and long term, we need to work hard to work hard.
"Economy" is a strategic need to solve the current dilemma.The first is the long -term needs of economic development.The report of the 20th National Congress pointed out that "development is the first priority of the party's ruling country", and the Central Economic Work Conference also puts "steady growth" in a more prominent position.The effective improvement of economic quality and the reasonable growth of quantitatives cannot be separated from the economy; development is the last word.The second is the actual needs to resolve major risks.Major problems and risks in development must be solved by the development of the economy.The development of economy is a key move to prevent and resolve major economic and financial risks. In particular, local government debt risks must be slowed down through the development of the economy to exchange time in exchange for space.The third is to boost the strategic needs of all parties.Improve expectations and boosting confidence is the golden key to solve economic problems and achieve a comprehensive economic recovery.The current resident confidence, the confidence of private enterprises, the small WeChat mind, the confidence of foreign investment, and the market confidence must be vigorously boosted through the economy.
Therefore, fighting for the economy should become a command stick for economic work in 2023 and even in the future. It cannot be shaken or tossing.
The economy has become a key consensus in the central and local governments of China.At present, not only the central government puts stable growth in a more prominent position, but the local government is also motivating and going all out.Judging from the growth goals of GDP (GDP) disclosed in 31 provinces across the country, the target span is relatively obvious at 4%and 9.5%this year.It is worth mentioning that the GDP targets of 25 provinces exceed 5.5%.
Judging from the conference held after the Spring Festival, such as Shanghai held an optimized business environment construction conference, Guangdong held a high -quality development conference, Chongqing held the construction of the Shuangcheng Economic Circle Promotion Conference on the Chengdu -Chongqing area, and Zhejiang held a strong advancementInnovation and deepening reforms, the opening and enhancement conferences, etc., are full of hard work.In the middle and long term, "grasping development" and "spelling the economy" is more necessary.Economic growth is the basis for achieving the high -quality development of the 2035 vision and economic development. To achieve the 2035 visual goal, the average annual growth of GDP requires a average annual growth of not less than 5%. To achieve high -quality economic development, it is necessary to maintain a certain economic growth.Conflying the economic growth and the quality of growth, it even believes that China should adapt to the view of low economic growth, which is not only one -sided, but also misleading.
The economy still faces many risks and challenges.Last year was a year when China's economic development was extremely extraordinary and difficult.Under the comprehensive influence of the repeated impact of the epidemic, the internal and external operating environment, the sharp deterioration of geopolitics, the sharp deterioration of geopolitics, the continuous interest rate hikes of the US dollar, and the significant decline in real estate investment, the Chinese economy has gone through unprecedented risk challenges, and the GDP shows a downward trend.Although the year -on -year increased by 3%, the gap between the 5.5%expected target set at the beginning of the year was obvious.
The favorable conditions and positive factors of economic development this year have increased significantly. Especially after the comprehensive optimization and liberalization of epidemic prevention and control measures, the market confidence stabilizes, the demand is gradually recovered, and the policy effect is overlapping.The situation will improve significantly.However, China's economic development is still facing many internal and external risks and challenges.
First, the global economy is facing the risk of recession, and foreign demand may be obviously weakened.The World Economic Situation and Prospect Report recently released by the United Nations predict that this year's world economic growth will be reduced from approximately 3%in 2022 to 1.9%; World Bank will also significantly reduce the expectations of this year's global economic growth, and it is expected to slow to 1.7%, Far below 3%expected in June 2022.
Second, geopolitical conflicts have shown an upward momentum, and the global pattern has accelerated to reshape.The Russia -Ukraine War, which lasted for nearly a year, has recently deteriorated, and both sides are preparing for large -scale military preparations.What is particularly worthy of attention and vigilance is that the Sino -US struggle has been fully upgraded, and the situation in the Taiwan Strait is not optimistic.This shows that the world's unreparable change in the world is accelerating, and the global pattern will be even more unpredictable and unstable. It will also make some foreign -funded enterprises anxious to reduce geopolitical risks, migrate or diversify the supply chain.
Third, the Sino -US science and technology war is increasing, and there are major risk risks in supply chain.The latest export control of Chinese semiconductor technology and equipment in the United States, signed an agreement with Japan and the Netherlands to jointly curb the export chip equipment in China, and set up chip Sifang Alliance, especially to comprehensively disconnect the Chinese head technology company Huawei, trying to guide the guidance.The overall decoupling of US technology shows that there is a major hidden risk hazard in the supply chain of Chinese technology companies, and the industrial upgrading in the future is becoming increasingly difficult.
Fourth, China's triple pressure is still emerging, and economic and financial risks are high.Although GDP exceeded 12.0 trillion yuan (about S $ 23 trillion) last year, the results were not easy; however, real estate downturn, weak consumption, and insufficient confidence in private enterprises are still the "three major pain points" of the current economic development.The economic downlink pressure in some areas is obvious, the land market continues to be sluggish, the contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure is sharp, the risks of local government debt risks and high debt risks in urban investment companies, especially in individual districts and counties are very difficult, and it is difficult for civil servants to pay.
It is worth noting that key indicators such as real estate development investment, land transfer income, financial income at the level, "three insurances" expenditure, and industrial enterprises above designated size are still under pressure, which is obviously not optimistic.
From the above, although the economy has become the consensus of the central and local governments of China, and it is also the common voice of all sectors of society, but we cannot ignore the risks and local financial resources, and we will invest a round of traditional project investment.The economy not only needs to start a fight for reform, but also to strive to stimulate economic vitality. It truly achieves "let cadres dare to do, dare to break through, enterprises dare to work, and the masses dare to start." In particularGrass -roots officials are loosened to comprehensively stimulate the subjective initiative and creativity of officers.
The author is a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences
It is worth noting that key indicators such as real estate development investment, land transfer revenue, financial income at the level, "three insurances" expenditure, and industrial enterprises above designated size are still under pressure, which is obviously not optimistic.Although the economy has become the consensus of the central and local governments of China, it cannot ignore risks and local financial resources.
