Times Time Turns
For the global economic outlook in 2023, the Singapore stock market took the lead in the answer to "cautious and optimistic": the first three trading days at the beginning of the year of the rabbit, the Strait Times index rose by more than 3%.After all, the three major "black swan" crises shrouded over the world: crown disease epidemic, inflation, and the Russian and Ukraine War have seen the dawn of the tunnel.
Three years of global epidemics, thanks to the dual pronged approach of vaccines in the world and the immunity of the whole population, the virus finally shows the trend of "the wider the spread and the weaker the toxicity".At the Chinese Spring Festival Gala in the Year of the Rabbit, all the audiences at the scene did not gathered in a mask.This lens is the same as the spectacular "no cover" of the Qatar World Cup, which intuitively announced that the world has officially entered the post -epidemic era.
As the Federal Reserve has determined to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, regional inflation is also close to the end of the crossbow.The current inflation comes from the "perfect storm" formed by a variety of negative factors. Among them, there are monetary war caused by the US dollar drilling, some global supply chain reorganization caused by the Russian and Ukraine war, and the decline in production capacity and consumption caused by epidemic seal control.In any case, when the governments of various countries use various policy tools, they still focus on ensuring people's livelihood and committed to economic soft landing.
As an important variable factor, the hikes of the dollar will gradually appear, and ultimately promote the new dynamic balance of the world economy.Economic and developed countries are reorganizing the energy and commodity supply chain based on safe considerations, which is also close to the end this year.Taking Germany as an example, before the Russian and Ukraine War, Germany's imported energy from Russia accounted for 55%of natural gas, 50%of coal, and 30%of oil; since 2023, Germany has officially announced that it will no longer rely on Russian energy. ThisThree data are fully zero.On the other hand, China's comprehensive unblocking and opening up allows the engine of the "World Factory" to be reappeared in 2023.
The Ukrainian land of Winter has limited the maneuverability of military personnel and equipment, but the Russia -Ukraine troops are still connected through far fires and even short soldiers, repeating the tragic life and humanitarian disasters every day.The current situation of the war seems to be chaotic, but this delay of a year of war was suspended or even ended in 2023, but it was a high probability event.The rapid victory of "special military operations" in Russia's decision -making plan has now evolved into long -lasting war and consumption war. The national strength determines the limit of war resources. When one of the resources consumes the critical point of the change, or even the exhaustion of the dilapidated point, it is the day of the end.Essence
It must be seen that with the power of Russia, the entire NATO group headed by the United States and Britain in military resources, the economic resources cannot be compared with developed countries in the West. The strategic level is actually divided.The number of Russian army has exceeded 120,000, and the domestic economy has been comprehensively sanction; export trade, mainly exported by energy output, has lost the traditional European market, and energy prices have fallen below the pre -war level.I have to say that the reduction of game chips inside and outside the battlefield will inevitably affect the ultimate direction of victory and failure.However, under the enthusiastic "Great Russian" public opinion atmosphere, the final battle of "cost is far greater than returns" is the unbearable weight of the current Russian decision -making layer.
The deadlock will break with the arrival of spring. Ukraine has won the Patriot air defense missile system and the new generation of leopard -style main battle tanks assisted by the United States and NATO. The defense and attack capabilities have been greatly upgraded.The only variable that can be increased is to expand to 1.5 million people again.However, the number of people can only play a role in the cold weapon era. Modern warfare is a decisive password through scientific and technological war, electronic warfare, and information warfare.
As for Russia's nuclear deterrent cards, and not mentioning the average of the United States, Britain, and France, even China, which adheres to the standpoint of peace, has proposed a "four common" solutions in the United Nations Security Council, including: common: commonOppose the use of nuclear weapons to use or threatened the use of nuclear weapons, advocate that nuclear weapons are used, and the nuclear war cannot be played to prevent the nuclear crisis in mainland Asia and Europe.Let us look forward to the early arrival of peace.
When the world comes out of the crisis tunnel, the road under the dawn is still uncomfortable and full of challenges. Governments of various countries will also face the new challenges of gray rhinos such as economic recession and aging population.Global, and regional disputes can also cause large -scale war again.But looking at the history, human society is moving towards more civilized and progressive in the process of survival challenges in different times.
The author is the president of the Asia -Pacific Regional Enterprise Group
