Source: United News Network
Author: Li Youyi
General Micinhan, commander of McCarthy's plan to visit Taiwan and the U.S. Air Force Mobility Command, predicts that in the mainland to attack Taiwan in 2025, a balloon forced Blint to temporarily promote the tension of US -China confrontation.And Taiwan, which is sandwiched in the middle, is always doubtful: Will the United States send troops to protect Taiwan when they attack Taiwan in the mainland?
According to the polls, before the Russian and Ukraine War, more than 60 % of the people in Taiwan believed that the United States would send troops to defend Taiwan. Last year, it fell to about 50 %. By the end of last year, it had dropped to 30 %.The public usually analyzes whether the United States sends troops from diplomatic incidents or military soldiers, but we must also consider US law, separation of power, and public opinion environment to better speculate that possible action and restrictions:
Who can decide to send troops to Taiwan?According to the US Constitution, the US Congress has the power to launch and approve the war; however, the Taiwan Relations Law and six guarantees have not promised to send troops. RecentlyEven the method of sanctioning the mainland to attack Taiwan is only to "restrict the financial and visa of Chinese officials and enter and exit the US visa." There are no military means.It can be seen that even if Taiwan has strategic importance, the US Congress's attitude towards Taiwan is still very conservative.
Is the president the right to send troops?Presidential troops must meet the following conditions: First, send troops to obtain the first court of members within 48 hours, or to fight against foreign attacks on US territory or army.The first item must be obtained from the consent of the two hospitals, and it is not sure that it can be successful; the second item is not applicable to Taiwan because Taiwan is not a US territory or a US military base.What if the signing of the treaty to make Taiwan a US military base?This is probably not feasible to step on the bottom line of the martial arts directly on the mainland.
Are there any legitimacy of the United States to send troops?If the Taiwan Strait War was launched on the mainland, the US government sent troops on the grounds of "maintaining the peace of the Taiwan Strait", and it would be more legitimated, and the international community would support it. If Taiwan's provocation leads to the war, the United States will be embarrassing.
At the end of last year, the US think tank announced polls. 75 % of Americans regarded the mainland government as the enemy, but only 43 % were willing to send troops to protect the Taiwan.tower".The U.S. government wants to think: When the mainland attacks Taiwan, is the American people really willing to bear the price of the US -China war for a non -diplomatic country and non -American territory?From the Vietnam War to the Afghanistan war, they all stirred the people's rebound, and many people were quite dissatisfied with the United States' involvement in the war of other countries.Moreover, the mainland's military power is much stronger than the countries in the United States in the past. It is bound to promote high military expenses. Is the debt -high United States willing?If you really want to go to the military, the US government will inevitably spend a lot of effort to communicate with the public and obtain public opinion support.
The support of the United States is critical to maintaining peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait, and it is also possible to send troops in the United States to defense Taiwan; but we must do the most conservative assessment, because in addition to strategic considerations, the US government must also obtain legitimacy and legitimacy.With the support of public opinion, you can be famous.Taiwan should maintain calmness and not provoking the other side at will, continue to enhance the overall strength, and avoid war to seek peace.
The author is a former US House Assistant and a political strategic consultant of the Chinese Strategic Society
