Comment: Chinas economic recovery is faster than expected to cause the opportuni

Source: Bloomberg

The People's Bank of China promised to support the development of the domestic economic development through monetary policy. After the liberalization of the epidemic control, the economic recovery exceeds expectations, and it may have changed the consideration behind the central bank.

China suddenly abandoned the dynamic clearance policy in the 12th year of last year, and the consumption and service industry quickly recovered. Some economists need to implement more stimulus measures to have questions.However, industries such as real estate, durability, manufacturing, and exports are still weak, which means that the People's Bank of China may think that it is still necessary to implement the commitment to support domestic demand last month to support domestic demand.

Another variable factor is inflation.Although the inflation target is still lower than 3%throughout the year, the January data released on Friday shows that the year -on -year increase of residential consumer price index (CPI) will increase from 1.8%in December to 2.2%.

Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, said that the re -opening up of offline activities is quite good, which means that the necessity of cutting interest rates or reduction at the central bank in the short term of the People's Bank of China decreases.He believes that if the second round of epidemic infection broke out, it is expected to cut interest rates or reduction in the second quarter.

In 2022, the People's Bank of China maintains a reasonable and moderate currency easing policy, and more relied on structural tools to provide targeted support for the economy.Although the epidemic occurred last year, the control measures were taken in many places, and the economic growth rate fell to the second low level since the 1970s, and it did not adopt the method of stimulating the economy in large water.Officials are cautious about over -stimulating economic and waste of policy space. At the same time, when the Fed and other central banks around the world are concerned about tightening monetary policy, if the Central Bank of China will increase the control of the monetary policy, it will increase the pressure on the depreciation of the RMB.

However, the gap between the People's Bank of China and the Foreign Central Bank may begin to shrink this year.Investors predict that the Fed will start rate cuts before the end of the year.With the decline in external pressure, the RMB has strengthened since November last year, the market is expected to slow down the pace of tightening, and the Chinese economy will improve.

The spread of 10 -year Treasury bonds in China and the United States has also narrowed from the peak of about 150 basis points in early November to about 60 basis points, indicating that compared with Chinese Treasury bonds, the value of purchasing US bonds decreases, thereby alleviating the pressure on capital outflow pressure, Attracting overseas investors, also gives the People's Bank of China a greater room for interest rate cuts.

Some economists expect that the People's Bank of China will reduce its standards this year to supplement interbank liquidity.Zhong Zhengsheng is expected to reduce a total of 50 to 100 basis points in 2023. The time window may be in the fourth quarter of the period when the liquidity is usually tight and the large number of policy loans expires.

Standard Chartered Economist Ding Shuang and Bloomberg economist Qu Tianshi, etc., are expected to reduce the one -year policy interest rate in the first quarter.Ding Shuang, an economist in China and North Asia, said that "monetary policy will still play an important role before the government budget was approved and fiscal policy began to make efforts in March.