Zhao Meng: In 2022, Chinas labor -age population decreased by 6.66 million, what

Source: Interface News

Author: Zhao Meng

After the Spring Festival, with the peak of China ’s stable epidemic infection, in order to fight for the economy,“ recruiting workers ”has become the main task of multiple governments in various governments.According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2022, China ’s labor age population was 87.556 million, accounting for 62.0%of the national population.Compared with 88.222 million in 2021, a decrease of 6.66 million.What impact will this have on the economic development and labor market?

Interface News sorted out statistical data over the years and found that China's working age population has declined in recent years. Although the decline in 2022 is not the largest in the past years, many people and economists have stated that the decline in the decline in labor age population has a negative growth of the population size.Factors may have a far -reaching impact on economic development.

Statistics show that in 2011, China's working age population reached a peak of 94.072 million, which began to decline. In 2012, it decreased by 3.45 million compared with 2011 to 93.727 million people.In 2018, China's labor -age population dropped to less than 900 million for the first time, with 89.729 million.The trend in 2019 is still continuing, compared with the previous year, a decrease of 890,000.

Interface News noted that the year of non -population census, the data of the working age population comes from sampling surveys, which has changed a lot compared to the census years.Compared with the previous year in the previous year in 2020 and 2021, the data appeared largely.

In 2020, China carried out the seventh census.According to the Census Bulletin (No. 5), China ’s 16-59-year-old population was 879052796 (8790.52 million) in 2020, a decrease of about 17.35 million people from 2019, the largest decline over the years.By 2021, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that China's labor age population was 882.22 million, which rose by 3.17 million compared with 2020.

By 2022, the labor age population decreased by more than 65 million in 10 years, which still exceeded the expectations of experts at that time.

Earlier in 2013, the Ministry of Economics and Social Science Literature Publishing House of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences jointly released the Economic Blue Book Spring Season.

The Spring Book of Economic Blue Book believes that 2011 or 2012 is a very important turning point. The labor age population is absolutely reduced as the basic population of labor, and unlimited labor supply is no longer a characteristic of China's economic development.Correspondingly, the phenomenon of decreased capital remuneration has become more and more intense.At the same time, the population raising ratio has also begun to rise, and the demographic dividend has officially begun to disappear.

The impact of changes in the number of labor age population on economic development is different.For example, after the release of the "Qi Pu" data, Chen Gong, director of the Institute of Population of Peking University, pointed out that as a big country, the total number of labor age in China is huge, and labor resources are still more abundant.

Chen Gong said that in the past 40 years of reform and opening up, the Chinese population support ratio (0-14 years old and 65 years old and over the total number of population increased to 15-64 years old) from 62.6%in 1982 to 2010 to 201034.2%."Qi Pu" data shows that the Chinese population raising ratio in 2020 was 45.9%, an increase of 11.7 percentage points compared with 2010, which indicates that with the advancement of China's population aging process, the decline in the population support ratio has been in the past ten in the past ten.The annual reversal.At present, Singapore is still in the period of population bonus period with a population raising ratio of less than 50%, but the demographic dividend brought by the low population raising ratio has gradually decreased.

Statistical expert Yao Meixiong told the interface news. In the long run, the decline in labor age population is the main influencing factors of economic growth, which will cause total output to reduce, lead to a significant decline in potential productivity, and increase the cost of employment.At the same time, it also reduces consumption capacity, which will cause the market to shrink and the entire economic domestic demand is weak.He believes that the decline in the negative growth of the Chinese population will be superimposed with the decline in the labor age, which will lead to the disappearance of the demographic dividend in the future.

At the end of 2022, Cai Yan, chief expert of the National High -end Think Tank of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stated in a speech that the Chinese labor age population began to grow negatively in 2011. The typical impact brought by the supply side, such as slowing labor growth and increasing costs.As a result, the cost of corporate costs has increased and its comparative advantages have decreased.The decline in the labor age population has also led to a decrease in new growth labor, the speed of improvement of human capital, and the slowdown of labor capital. As the labor force decreases, enterprises are forced to replace labor with capital and replace people with machines.Do not correspond to, that is, the capital remuneration decreases.

In addition, the decrease in labor force has also led to the slowdown in the labor transfer of rural areas to the city. This transfer can originally improve the resource reassessment efficiency.EssenceAll factors are superimposed and placed in a production function, which means that the potential economic growth rate will decrease.

Earlier in late December 2022, the Professor and Bo Director of the School of Labor and Personnel of Renmin University of China, Zeng Xiangquan, said at a public forum that the overall situation of China's employment situation is better, but it still faces short -term and medium -term challenges.In the short term, the impact of the epidemic and the downward pressure of the economy fluctuate the employment market, but from the long -term perspective, the challenges brought about by the decline in the labor age population are more worthy of attention.

Cai Yan pointed out that after the turning point of the negative growth of the total population, the impact of the supply side will continue and will be strengthened.From the negative growth of the labor age population in 2011 to the current stage, the reduction of the labor age population is relatively gentle, "it can be said to be a buffer period."However, as the total population starts to grow negative, the negative growth of the labor age will be relatively accelerated, which means that the impact on the economy will intensify in the future.

But he also said that one of the important reasons for the slowdown in economic growth is insufficient labor.But for China, although the working age population has increased negatively, China has huge rural surplus labor.Therefore, China's unique source of labor supply is to transfer labor from agriculture to non -agricultural industries, and new urbanization will promote this process.

Interface News noticed that Wang Pingping, director of the Department of Population and Employment Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, said in a recent interpretation of China's population change in 2022 that although the total population has declined slightly, China still has more than 1.4 billion people, the population scaleAdvantages and large -scale market advantages will exist for a long time; the labor age population is nearly 900 million, and labor resources are still abundant.At the same time, the education level of China's labor age has continued to increase, and the talent dividends have gradually emerged.The continuous improvement of population quality will strongly support the transformation of economic development methods, industrial structure upgrades, and the improvement of all factor productivity, and promote the continuous coordination and healthy development of the population and economy and society.