Yi Xianrong: Chinas real estate policy orientation has major adjustments this ye

Yi Xianrong

In 2023, China's real estate policy will change significantly.Since 2016, the Chinese government has only lived in the premise that the real estate policy is "stabilized, stable, and stable expectations", emphasizing the word "stable".Only such a "stability" can make the house prices only rise, and only the rise in house prices will inevitably drive residents to break through all kinds of restrictions into the market and create a historical record for real estate sales year by year (2016 to 2021 each year each yearThis is the case) and extreme prosperity.This not only allows the development investment of real estate to grow at a high speed, but also makes the local government's land finance full of money.This is the basic orientation of real estate policies for more than 20 years, and it has also become the main driving force for the growth of GDP (GDP).

However, the real estate market situation changed dramatically last year, and the negative growth of development investment increased by 10%(the worst record of more than 20 years); residential sales fell 28.3%(back to the level of 2017); the new construction area of residential houses fell by 39.8%(history created historyRecords); personal mortgage loans decreased by 26.5%(the willingness to purchase houses to be comprehensively weakened); local government land transfer increased by more than 40%(if it was not a local city investment company received, the data would be worse), etc.).What is even more severe is that house prices in 70 large and medium -sized cities have fallen for 8 consecutive months. Third and fourth -tier cities are more serious, the trend is still continuing, and the myth that house prices are rising and falling are completely broken.The periodic adjustment of the real estate market has begun, and the confidence of residents' confidence in real estate has fallen to a historical low.

In terms of the current situation, this situation of real estate will not only continue this year, but also may be more serious.Facing the severe situation, the Chinese government has adjusted significantly this year's real estate policy orientation.

First of all, risk prevention becomes the first priority.This is reflected in the documents of the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year. The work deployment of this year's real estate industry is discussed under the framework of "effectively preventing and resolving major economic and financial risks", and determining that the core goal of this year's real estate policy is "preventive risk, insurance, guarantee"Saying the building" instead of emphasizing the use of policies to ensure the "stability" of the real estate market.The January of the Ministry of Housing and Urban -Rural Development also clearly stated that there is a huge risk in the current real estate market, and it is necessary to take a "slowest -sourness" method to resolve, instead of sudden detonation.

The "risk -proof and insurance transit" priority of real estate policy is two sides, but the more important focus is on the "guarantee of the property".Because only the housing purchased by the residents can ensure the delivery, can the market confidence in the marketing housing as the main body gradually recover, and the risks are gradually resolved.Otherwise, it will not only trigger the crisis of the entire market, residents refuse to repay the mortgage loan, but it will also trigger the bank crisis and financial market risks, as well as residents who buy losses to the government's social crisis.However, since the "refusal to repay the mortgage loan incident" in July last year, although the government made a commitment to absolutely "guarantee the property", as of December last year, the comprehensive resumption of the real estate reached about 20%."The task may be very arduous.

In order to "protect the building and prevent risks", the real estate policy is "grasping both ends and the middle of the middle"."One end" grasps high -quality housing companies, and as well as colleagues to support high -quality state -owned enterprises and private enterprises to improve the status of assets and liabilities.Recently, the Central Bank and the Banking Insurance Regulatory Commission held a symposium on credit work in major banking to propose to implement the plan to improve the asset -liabilities of high -quality housing enterprises, focus on high -quality housing enterprises that focus on the main business, compliance operations, good qualifications, and a certain system importance."" Liabilities continued "," replenishment of equity "and" expected improvement ", comprehensively improving the operating and financing cash flow of high -quality housing enterprises, and guiding the return of high -quality housing enterprises' balance sheets to return to the safe range.In other words, comprehensively relax the various financing conditions of high -quality housing companies, keep the main body of housing, so that high -quality real estate companies can bear the main responsibility of "insurance delivery".

"One end" is to grasp the insurance housing enterprises. On the one hand, it helps these housing companies to rescue themselves. On the other handThe behavior of the interests of the masses has been confused.In other words, the relaxation of the real estate financing policy is not the old way to return to the previous financing model, but to the criminal behavior of the survival of the health of real estate companies through marketization and rule of law, and severely crack down on sales to collect funds.This is the first time that the real estate policy has such a method, which means that this year's bankruptcy closure of real estate companies will become the norm, and the scale of 100,000 housing companies will gradually shrink.

It can be seen that the main body of high -quality housing companies to maintain and expand development is not only the most important part of the "guarantee of the building", but also an important part of restarting the confidence of the housing market.Promoting real estate confidence this year will be a long way.

Secondly, to promote the comprehensive transformation of real estate, it mainly includes two aspects.

First, improve and improve existing real estate laws and regulations.For example, the outbreak of the "insured property" incident last year was mainly related to serious defects in the pre -sale system.Therefore, this year's policy has new orientation for the housing pre -sale system. For example, the sales of existing housing are required where there are conditions; if the pre -sale is continued, the responsibility of the fund supervision must be put in place to prevent funds from escaped and the risk of new delivery.This means that the pre -sale system has been seriously questioned for many years will have major reforms. On the one hand, it will create system conditions for the sales of existing housing. On the other hand, even if the housing pre -sale is continued, the system of strict supervision funds will be established.Real estate financing and capital operation models will undergo tremendous changes and will seriously affect the behavior of real estate companies.

The second is how the real estate market has transformed into a long -term mechanism of the three -in -one (purchase, leasing, and guarantee) market.Focusing on the development of affordable leasing housing, it will accelerate the solution to the difficulties of group housing difficulties such as new citizens and young people.Vigorously increase the supply of affordable rental housing, solidly promote the transformation of shantytowns, and newly start construction of various types of affordable housing such as affordable rental housing, public rental housing, and common property houses.For example, in Shenzhen's recently launched common property housing, it is mainly to solve the problem of current housing and talent housing.This can not only make the existing real estate interests not change greatly (or no longer continue to fall in house prices), but also properly solve the basic housing needs of disadvantaged residents in these cities.

These transformations include both real estate financing models, capital management models, and transformation of market operation models. There are also market development model transformation and conceptual transformation (emphasizing that the construction industry is the real economy, and the development of the real estate market is the development of the real economy).The transformation of real estate policy will be comprehensive this year.

In short, the market situation this year is severe, and the policy orientation has been adjusted significantly. It will lead to the real estate market and the effect. At present, it is quite uncertain.However, it is certain that the era of house prices in the past 20 years has only risen and extremely prosperous, and Chinese real estate will enter a new era.

The author is a professor at Qingdao University, China

Dean of the School of Finance and Fortune Management

In terms of current situation, this situation of real estate will not only continue this year, but also may be more serious.Facing the severe situation, the Chinese government has adjusted significantly this year's real estate policy orientation.