Han Heyuan
The real estate industry of the industry, in terms of social and economic development in China, is indeed a dual -blade sword -on the one hand, it is the driving force for high economic growth, and on the other hand, it is also the root of many social and economic problems.It mainly affects China's socioeconomic and economy in the following six directions:
1. The real estate industry crowded out consumption.Consumption is the driving force for economic growth. Human consumption behavior is divided into three types: survival consumption, development consumption and enjoyment consumption.The role of consumption on production is that it can create new production needs, that is, the internal motivation of the concept of production, which is the prerequisite for production.At present, the biggest problem in China's economy lies in lack of consumption; one of the important reasons for insufficient consumption is the real estate industry.
Before answering this question, it is necessary to understand a concept: house price income ratio.This refers to the proportion of housing prices to urban residents' household income.According to international practice, this value is a reasonable range between three and six times.However, according to the distribution of housing price income ratio monitored by the Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, in 2020, among the 100 cities in China, there are 29 housing price income ratio between 20 and 30, and the housing prices of the eight cities.The income ratio is as high as 30 to 50.This means that in these cities, ordinary families do not eat or drink for more than 30 years to provide a house.
In fact, Economist Fan Gang mentioned as early as 2018 that the current China must empty the three generations of his grandchildren and grandchildren, in order to make up the down payment of a house.This means that a house must be overdrawn through the consumption power of the three generations; it also means that in addition to having a house, they are just alive and can only make survival consumption.As for development -oriented consumption and improved consumption, they are almost insulating for them.
Second, suppress the willingness to fertility.In recent years, China has gone out of the period of demographic dividend, and the problem of aging has become increasingly prominent, which has brought about a series of problems such as economic growth and population employment.As a response, the government proposed to encourage three babies.The problem is that one child still has to empty the coffin of the three generations. How many wallets do you have to empty the two -child and three children?Where can I hollowing out enough wallets?Finally, it will inevitably be reflected as the suppression of fertility.
Empirical research has also confirmed that high house prices are already "the best contraceptives."For example, Yi Junjian and Yi Xingjian used data from Hong Kong from 1971 to 2005 and the house price index to study the long -term impact of rising house prices on fertility rates.The conclusion of the income is that the house price index rises by 1%, and the total fertility rate decreases by 0.45%.
Three, squeeze out of entrepreneurship.The famous manager Peter Ferdinand Drucker believes that entrepreneurship is one of the main drivers of the economic development of a country. In 1985, he proposed the concept of Entrepreneurial Economy.Future scholar John Naisbitt also believes that entrepreneurship is the basis for the sustainable economic prosperity of a country.Unfortunately, in China with revenue of up to 20 to 50, at the request of the mother -in -law, the entire family's money is used for the down payment of the house.How can these young people still have idle money to start a business?
It is because of high housing prices to apply unprecedented pressure on young people, making them sluggish.The high monthly supply makes life be completely stuck by the house. This heavy pressure makes them have no passion and dreams. From the beginning, life is material and worldly.The incomplete salary and unstable work positions will gradually weaken their ability to afford their ability to afford the value of survival and life dignity.
In order to ensure that they do not lose their jobs, these young people who are full of passion and dreams are usually suffering from losses and care. They have no opinion in their work, and they are unique.In order to ensure stable work, these people have lost their dreams while losing their dreams.Entrepreneurs refer to people who actively bear the risk -taking role in the process of seeking opportunities in an uncertain and disorderly environment.Now they lack the at least adventure spirit, obviously they can't play this role.
Fourth, the cost of land rises rapidly, and accelerate industrial movement.At the moment when the cost differences between the global production factors are increasingly smaller and smaller, when the country is competing for enterprises and international industries, cost competition will have a greater impact.Cost management is not only a matter of internal enterprises, but also about national competitiveness.How to effectively reduce the cost of corporate operating costs has also become a major problem that needs to be solved urgently.Unfortunately, high housing prices are high, and land prices and land rental water rises high.Under cost competition, as labor costs and land costs continue to rise, the international industry will inevitably accelerate the transfer.
Five, distort the values of the people.As early as 1634, during the Dutch tulips, the Dutch put too much energy on the possession of tulips. People even ignored the population problems and industrial problems in the country's widespread population.For this reason, someone asked at the time: "If you can make money in this way, the businessman still needs to operate hard? Adventurers have to risk risks and go overseas to sell goods? Children have to learn skills? The captain must still be in the sea in the seaMake a living? "In the next round of economic crisis 2: Why is China exempt from the difficult book, the author has also sent an approximate emotion:" Due to the rise in asset prices, it has brought hundreds of millions of wealth to investors. This is traffic income.The huge wealth that is far from compared to make people's values confused. The income of sweat and hard work is far less bad than the benefits brought by money games, which will inevitably have a bad impact on labor enthusiasm. "
In fact, for the country and nation, the damage of values distortions is much larger than the squeeze of consumption and entrepreneurship, and this change will be permanent.
As far as China is concerned, real estate work will indeed live in the short term, but in the long run, it is not optimistic: high housing prices will inevitably lead to high land prices, and finally it must be reflected as rising land costs of enterprises.Rising labor costs and rising land costs will inevitably accelerate industrial transfer.But at the same time, it lacks consumption and entrepreneurial supplementary positions, and the willingness to fertility is suppressed. In the end, it has to issue a problem: What can China take to ensure the sustainable economic growth of the economy?
Imagine that if China's house price income is only 4 to 6, can the Chinese go to the theater to see a few more greens, buy more products in the supermarket, and watch more games?If the real estate is not at the expense of the six wallets, what will the internal cycle of China?Will the contribution rate of the proportion of consumption at that time would be higher?Don't forget that the main composition of GDP in the United States depends on these.
More importantly, if the national wallet is not hollowed out by real estate, listen to more concerts, read more dramas, read more books, and do more self -education appreciation.Will improving consumption greatly improve the spiritual appearance of the people?
The author is a Chinese economist and a financial columnist
