Source: Bloomberg
Author: Prashant Gopal, SWATI PANDEY, Tracy Withers
The world's multi -earth -shock real estate market adds risks to the world economy, because interest rates have risen to erode family finances and may increase price declines.
The data released this week show that the landslide of the US residential market continues to enter the fifth month, China's housing prices have declined, and housing prices in Australia and New Zealand have also fallen.
The decline in house prices may damage consumer confidence. Family expenditures that have become rare highlights in the global economy last year may be pressed.In addition, as developers have reduced projects to respond to house prices, weakening demand, and rising loan costs, investment may also be impacted.
In the United States, the rise in the interest rate of mortgage loans last year brought chills to the real estate market. The sales of second -hand housing for more than a decade over the year have reached the largest annual decline in more than a decade.This makes house prices be under pressure, especially in San Francisco and other places.
This pressure will continue in the process of responding to inflation.The market widely expects that decision makers will raise interest rates 25 basis points after the two-day meeting on Wednesday, and adjust the interest rate range to 4.5%-4.75%.
China's property market is not cheerful
In China, the world's second largest economy, although the government has increased its support for real estate, the property market has almost no signs of slowing down.According to the preliminary data released by Kerry Real Estate on Tuesday, the sales trading amount of the top 100 housing companies in China fell 32.5%year -on -year.
China has announced the measures in recent months to provide financing support for developers with tight funds. Local governments have also increased their efforts to stimulate the demand for house purchase, including reducing mortgage interest rates and relaxation of down payment requirements.Bloomberg industry research analyst Kristy HUNG said that these measures were unlikely to boost sales before the year.
The continuous weakness of the Chinese real estate market may make the expectations of economists face challenges, and Nomura has previously raised its assessment of China's economic growth prospects.In the report of January 31, Lu Ting and other economists quoted the official wording of "no housing" and the decline in house prices to cool the speculative demand.
Australia, New Zealand
In January, the house prices in Australia and New Zealand continued to fall, and the decline may continue, because the property markets of these two places have not fully digesting the impact of the interest rates soaring last year.
Many New Zealand families use fixed interest rate mortgage loans, and the new higher interest rates have not been effective.Therefore, economists expect that local house prices will fall further, and by the beginning of 2024, it will fall at least 20%compared to the end of 2021.
Corelogic data shows that the housing price of the capital Wellington has fallen 18.1%year -on -year.In the largest city Auckland, house prices fell 8.2%.
In Australia, it is also similar. According to a report from Bloomberg Industry, as some mortgage loans turn into higher floating interest rates this year, the surge in buyers' repayment will inevitably drag consume.
Analyst Mohsen Crofts and Jack Baxter said in the report that when the buyer's ultra -low fixed interest rate expires, the repayment amount of 15%of the housing loan may increase by more than 80%.They estimate that the impact of household income is equivalent to 2.2 percentage points of retail sales.
