Chen Liujun
The European Union recently, with five diplomatic envoys with the United States, Germany, France, France, and Italy, visited Belgrade, the capital of Serbia, and provided a solution to the Cosovo issue to Serbia (proposed by France and Germany, known as "France," France- Germany Plan ").There are 11 clauses. The core content is to support Cosovo to join international organizations such as the United Nations. In fact, it makes it the status of an independent country and requires Serbia to give a answer before March.
Serbian President Wugic said in a television speech published by the people across the country two days later that he would be forced to make a choice between accepting plans and sanctions.
At this time, Wugic seemed to be tragic, because no matter what the choice of the senior students of the law school, it may be a disaster for his country.Accepting the "French -German Plan" means that the country has been divided again under the other party's paper complication, and the country has been split again; and they have gone through the division from Yugoslavia to the South Alliance, to Black, and then to Serbia.If they refuse, they will accept the risk of being sanctioned by the European and American powers; they are just listed as EU candidates in May 2022, and neighboring countries are basically EU members.More importantly, Wugic and his Serbia does not seem to have the third road to choose from, and the delay of negotiations has become impossible. No wonder he wants to say, "If you can save the country, I will quit without hesitation.President's position ".
At this time, Serbia is like a fire in Ukraine.As early as Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014, Russia also issued a notice to Ukraine that it was not allowed to join NATO, and allowed Ligesk and Donetsk in the east to be independent, otherwise it would be sanctions.This sanction evolved into the largest war in Europe after eight years.
The two states, which once demanded independence, accounting for about 7%of the total area of Ukrainian territory, and the population accounts for about 10%.Today, the independent Kosovo area accounts for about 11%of Serbia, and the population is more than a quarter.This is an asset that can be ignored or easily transferred in any country, and it is even more difficult to imagine which politicians will sell these assets under pressure.But today's Serbia has to see that in October last year, it passed the referendum independent and entered the Ukrainian territory of Russia.Nearly 15%of the territory is equivalent to the entire Portuguese land area.The four states have a population of nearly 10 million, accounting for more than 20%of the total population of Ukraine, which is equivalent to the entire Swedish population.This is the consequences of rejection of the EMB in reality.
If you look for the relationship between Serbia and Kosovo from historical logic, the relationship between the relationship between Ukraine and Crimea, the two states, and Russia are as difficult as Finding Ukraine and Crimea., But it is also reasonable and powerful, and it is impossible to give right or wrong at all.If they compare their relationships from the logic of strength, they are all the pressure and bullying of large countries to small countries. After losing patience to the goal of peaceful realization, the ultimatum of the big country will come.The timing.
The difference is when the small Congress chose to yield.
Ukraine persisted to the end, so that the opponent had to adopt the final means to solve the problem with war.There are both Ukraine's own status, strength and will, but also because it finally waits for strong support from Western countries.So I do n’t know where the result of this war will go?
Serbia may not be so lucky, if it is lucky to use a small war.Because it is too disparate with the strength of Western countries, it is impossible to organize effective confrontation.The Orthodox brother Russia, which has been relying on, is deeply trapped in the quagmire, and can only help it verbally. It is really impossible to provide effective help.Therefore, Serbia is likely to have to choose to yield earlier.
Of course, there are about half of the Russians in the two states of Wudong, but if it is independent of Russia, what is the difference between the "Su Taiwan incident" that Hitler promoted?Among the 2 million people in Kosovo today, 90%are indeed Albanians. If it is independent or merged with Albania in the future, should Scotland and Northern Ireland be more treated?
Behind this history and reality, in addition to the native paradox of national self -determination, it is also necessary to find new ways to solve problems with new thinking methods, rather than re -caught up again and again.Disaster.
Serbia is known as the crossroads of Europe. It is a must -have for land from Europe to the Middle East, Russia, Africa, and Asia. Nowadays, it has encountered the same fate as Ukraine.If this is a geopolitical curse, it can only show that human beings have not thought of breaking this curse so far.Or the way is not without. As Confucius said, "Do not do what you want to do" is a solution worth pondering and practicing.Unfortunately, there are not many people who can put into practice.
The author is a commentator in Yangzhou, China
