Yang Jun
Seventh Kingdom Group (G7) Leaders and Ukrainian President Zelei in December last year issued a joint statement including 18 contents including the G7+1 online summit."The threat", but it has been called out.Because this is not only in line with Ukraine's national security interests, but also the security interests of countries that are deeply suffered from "Russia's foreign military expansion" in all history.Of course, if you want to achieve this goal, it is not just as simple as defeating Russia on the battlefield.
Since modern times, every Russian defeat is just for the next larger extension of foreign military expansion.Although the Japanese and Russian War was defeated in China and Russia, it did not prevent the seizure of the four islands in northern Japan after World War II.Although the war was unfavorable and signed a very harsh Berster and Treaty with Germany, after the World War I, the Soviet Union and Russia announced that the contract was invalidated, and then gradually expanded the power to the entire Eastern Europe.After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, it was temporarily silent for a while, and he was re -entered, and he used to use soldiers in the surrounding area until February 24 last year invaded Ukraine.As Kissinger said: "Russia expands out of rarely restraint. Once blocked, it is full of grief, temporarily tolerate, wait for the opportunity to retaliate."
cannot be satisfied with Russian defeat compensation
In this case, if it is only satisfied with Russia's defeat compensation, or is satisfied with a long time, it has no "threat of foreign military expansion", which is a short -sighted auspicious move.In the face of Ukraine and surrounding small countries, they are still strong, especially the Russian nationalist enthusiasm that has not been damaged and more surging, like Germany after the First World War.Then Ukraine is not a thorough peace, but just a break of several years.
Therefore, if you want to eliminate the threat of Russia for a long time, it is necessary to penetrate the deep texture of the Russian national culture, geopolitical concepts and religious beliefs to understand the root cause of its impulse.We will find that Russia has an unusual greed for land, and it is manifested in geopolitics that is never the impulse to expand. At the same time, it is accompanied by a strong lingering sense of insecurity, constituting a prominent paradox in Russia politicsOn, it has always been the most tricky issue in the international community.
This kind of geopolitics is insecure. For Russia, it is necessary to make up for further expansion of territory, so it is trapped into a vicious circle.Tension; the more nervous, the more you need to expand the territory to establish the so -called strategic buffer belt. To this end, the national power will be exhausted, which will cause the domestic political and social structure to change and even overwhelm it.
The annihilation of Tsarist Russia is like this, "later Soviet Russia disintegrated because it was similar to the Tsarian period" (Kissinger).This time, Putin's rashing war caused the Russians to become the world's abandonment, and Russia became the public enemy of the world. It may be the same for the next decades. Isn't it the same?
Therefore, this is obviously not a simple concept of geopolitical expansion, but it is rather a kind of obsession with religious beliefs.Just as Kissinger analyzes: "Ones often explain the expansion of Russia with a sense of insecurity, but Russian writers often talk about it as the Messiah -style religious mission." Therefore, if you want to solve Russia once and for allThe problem is that only the thorough and in -depth reflection and review of it can only be launched to seek a salary of salary and surpass this historical paradox.
First of all, it is necessary to enable the vast majority of Russians, especially young people, to completely out of the geopolitical expansion syndrome that has been immersed in the imperial period during the Emperor Russia.Development, Fang is the most fundamental guarantee of Guoqiang Minfu.At the same time, it is necessary to make more young people understand that "after the expansion reaches a certain degree, not only can not enhance Russia's strength, but to contribute to its weakness."Need to digest. "As the Prime Minister of the Emperor Russia, Golthakov said: "The extension of territorial extension represents the extension of the weakness."
In addition, to enlighten, we must change the traditional view of heroes.Which great man and heroes behind human history are not a result of all bones, not "white bones are exposed to the wild, and there is no chicken singing thousands of miles"?But which historical book will record the joy, sorrow, sadness and joy of these flat -headed people?Except for leaving a cold "beheading 240,000" and "more than 400,000 pits", there will be nothing.Which historical book is not a sang to the heroes?Even the overlord who "refuses to pass Jiangdong" is still "thinking" so far?Even Napoleon, who was the last defeat, was sung by future generations.
It is the Russian President Putin, which has killed nearly 200,000 people since the beginning of the war, and his latest public opinion support rate is still as high as 81.1%(according to data of the All -Russian Social Opinion Center on October 7)EssenceIf this poll is true and reliable, it will further prove that the problem is not only in the core of a few power such as Putin, but it is better to be deeply rooted in Russian nationality.To some extent, it is the unique historical view and over -enthusiastic hero history of human beings, which leads to all kinds of "heroes" for every few years.Although the heads of millions of people are at the expense.
To some extent, the whole human history is just a footnote of heroes.It is this concept of hero history that leads to constant conquest of human beings.Only when most people abandon this morbid view of history and cherish the rights, freedom and dignity of each individual, humans can build a free and peaceful homeland.The war fire, no more confusing publicity and conspiracy.
We don't know how long it will take to realize this dream, but look at the historical river, especially since the Russia -Ukraine war, the anti -war parade of the world and the support of Ukraine will find that it will become increasingly more and more discoveringMany people have reached a consensus on peace and their hearts.
Emotional does not belong to Europe
Another paradox in Russia's politics is also reflected in although it spans Eurasia and "always occupy a place in Europe, it never belongs to Europe emotionally" (Kissinger).But rather than in Europe, it is not so emotional that it is because of ideology and culture, religious beliefs (the Orthodox Church of Political and Education) and genes with a long -term and deep dictatorship of dictatorship.Europe opened the distance, and gradually drifted away, and even the water and fire were not allowed, and the sword pulled out.
The Cold War of the Soviet Union and the enemy of Russia and Ukraine and the entire West today are the best explanations.In fact, before and after the Yalta meeting, the Soviet Union had a short and rare honeymoon period with the West, but then the iron curtain came and the Cold War opened.After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, whether it was Yelsin or Putin, it was more or less thought to be incorporated into Europe at the beginning of his office, but in the end, it was all based on the inherent cultural concepts, as well as the political system and gradually farther away from the West.In the end, it was unhappy.
Therefore, to resolve this paradox, it is necessary to carry out thorough reforms from the Russian economy and political system.To some extent, the biggest problem in Russia is that there have never been real enlightenment, reflection and thorough reform, just like Germany and Japan before World War II, so there is always an impulsive impulse.The international community has always adopted various appeasement policies since the decline in the international community, which has encouraged its ambition to expand its territory.In a word, the only redeem of Russia is a complete change in economic, political systems, and concepts, so that they can be reborn and Phoenix Nirvana like Germany and Japan after World War II.
The author is Kennedy College of Harvard University
Researcher of Ash Democratic Governance and Innovation Center
To some extent, the biggest problem in Russia is that there has never been real enlightenment, reflection and thorough reform, just like Germany and Japan before World War II, so there is always an impulse to hold back.
